SGH - Slater and Gordon

[Ann]

I am looking at stocks that have a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP). This is one of them.

This is a very simple chart with end of day prices shown in a simple line taken over a monthly period. I look at charts with candlesticks, EOD, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly. I look for the chart that says something to me...this chart says something very clearly.

I always work with the KISS principle which may look amateurish but it really is the best way!

 

[herzy]

What does the chart say very clearly?

 

[McCoy Pauley]

What does the chart say very clearly?

It says I should have trusted my gut instinct and bought in when the share price was less than half its current price.

 

[So_Cynical]

It says I should have trusted my gut instinct and bought in when the share price was less than half its current price.

Yep...Gut instinct is a very underrated signal.

 

[galumay]

It says I should have trusted my gut instinct and bought in when the share price was less than half its current price.

It possibly also says hindsight is a wonderful gift. Charts only tell you what has happened in the past unfortunately, otherwise we would all be rich.

 

[Ann]

It possibly also says hindsight is a wonderful gift. Charts only tell you what has happened in the past unfortunately, otherwise we would all be rich.

Hi Galumay,

The joy of charts is their capacity to form reccuring patterns and those patterns have potential reccuring outcomes. The art (not science) of charting is the ability to recognize a potential chart pattern and know its potential outcome. Easier said than done!

What does the chart say very clearly?

Hi Herzy,

The chart is simple with clean, easy to read lines and shows a pennant on a flagpole, which can be a very bullish chart pattern. If it fails the pattern then it may offer a good buying opportunity, if it moves up and out of the pennant it may offer a good trading opportunity.

The pattern tells me it is an interesting and potentially spectacular chart to watch.


Cheers
Ann

 

[galumay]

Hi Galumay,

The joy of charts is their capacity to form reccuring patterns and those patterns have potential reccuring outcomes. The art (not science) of charting is the ability to recognize a potential chart pattern and know its potential outcome. Easier said than done!

Ann

I shall avoid dragging the thread off topic by debating the proven danger of trying to predict future outcomes based on past performance!

Hopefully your strategy returns profit for you!

I certainly missed the boat, they were on my watch list as a FA, but i put my money elsewhere.

 

[Ann]

I shall avoid dragging the thread off topic by debating the proven danger of trying to predict future outcomes based on past performance!

Technical analysis is not so much about past performance, that is more FA, TA is more about recognizing a pattern formation which has the potential to evolve in a certain way which is not exclusive to a particular stock. There are certain perameters which will warn of a potential fail or of a potential success during the pattern's evolution. It is just another handy way to manage stop loss along with anything else that works for someone when aquiring/disposing of an asset. It is neither magic nor foolproof just another tool to use for decision making.

 

[bigdog]

$5.1900 Change +0.2600 +%5.3 @1:47 PM

12/08/2014 08:41 SGH FY14 Full Year Financial Results

12 August 2014

Slater & Gordon FY14 Full Year Financial Results
• Total revenue up 40.4% to A$418.5 million
• Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) up 47.2% to A$61.1 million
• Normalised EBITDA margin of 24.6%
• Full year dividend up 21.2% to 8.0 cents per share

Results Summary:
Slater & Gordon Limited ("Slater & Gordon") delivered a strong financial performance in the twelve months ending 30 June 2014. Revenue, earnings and cash flow all exceeded full year guidance.

Total revenue was A$418.5 million, up 40.4% on the previous corresponding period, while NPAT increased 47.2% to A$61.1 million.

Cash flow from operations of A$54.8 million was 89.7% of NPAT.

Net debt at 30 June 2014 was A$101.1 million with a gearing ratio (net bank debt/equity) of 23.9%.

Directors have declared a fully franked final dividend of 5.0 cents per share, up 29.9%, payable on 24 October 2014 with a record date of 17 September 2014. The Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) will be active for the final dividend at the volume weighted average prices for the pricing period from 19 September 2014 to 16 October 2014.

Highlights:
Australian Personal Injury Law (PIL) practice continues to grow and maintain margins despite disruption caused by legislative change.

Five UK acquisitions announced and completed during the period.

Existing UK business and acquisitions delivered FY14 financial and operational targets.

UK integration process well advanced and on track for completion in FY15.

Australian General Law (GL) platform established.

Managing Director's Commentary:
Slater & Gordon Group Managing Director Andrew Grech said "I am very pleased with the Group's financial performance for FY14. We have been able to deliver the results we promised while making great progress in each of the key areas of our growth strategy. Importantly, the results reinforce our capability as a management team to deliver sustainable growth from a variety of channels whilst at the same time achieving key business improvement milestones."

"The businesses acquired in the UK are running smoothly and the integration of all acquired firms is well progressed. We have been delighted by the response to the launch of the Slater & Gordon brand which along with Claims Direct is delivering underlying revenue growth of 8% year on year.
We have now established a stable base in the UK and have the people and initiatives in place to make the best of the opportunities which are continuing to open up in that market."

"We are also now in a position to execute more acquisition opportunities in the Australian market across both personal injury law and general law."

"In Australia, we have undertaken several initiatives during the year focused on improving the client intake process and enhancing client satisfaction. The results have been very pleasing with improvement in key operational metrics such as calls answered, wait times and increased client satisfaction."

"Investment in our brand in both Australia and the UK is delivering results with steady growth in new file numbers during the year."

"We also continued to invest in our people with the announcement of a new staff share scheme and the launch of our refreshed values."

"I am confident that we enter FY15 as a stronger and more effective business with the resources and systems in place to exploit the substantial opportunities available to us to help people get easy access to world class legal services."

Acquisition Activity:
Slater & Gordon also announced today the proposed acquisition of Victorian specialist PIL firm Nowicki Carbone and Queensland consumer law practice Schultz Toomey O'Brien
with a combined estimated annual fee revenue of A$39 million. For more information please refer to this morning's ASX disclosures.

FY15 Outlook:
In FY15 we expect the Australian business to deliver total revenue of A$270.0 million comprised of 5% revenue growth from the PI practices, 10% revenue growth in General Law and a A$25.6 million contribution from the acquisitions announced today.

Total UK revenue is expected to be A$230.0 million comprising the expected full year contribution of acquisitions completed in FY14 and 8% revenue growth from the underlying practices.

At the Group level we expect:
• Total Revenue of A$500 million.
• EBITDA margin of 23 24%.
• Cash from operations (as % NPAT) of >70%

 

[piggybank]

Up another 6.5% today to close @ $5.58 - a new all time high close

 

[So_Cynical]

Up another 6.5% today to close @ $5.58 - a new all time high close

4 months on and yet another new all time high today - up through $6.50 on no news.

 

[The Cat]

Anyone here aware of SGH more than doubling in size in the not too distant future.

 

[Julia]

"Doubling in size"? Do you mean the firm doubling the number of its employees, doubling its billing/profitability, or are you referring to the share price?

 

[galumay]

Anyone here aware of SGH more than doubling in size in the not too distant future.

An odd post for your first post, forgive my cynicism, but it sounds like spruiking to me.

 

[Joe Blow]

I just became aware of The Cat's post and decided to check on another fourm where this kind of spruiking is the norm, and sure enough there was another "Cat" over there pushing the same line.

This, apparently, is what The Cat was referring to: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a906c89a-a250-11e4-aba2-00144feab7de.html#axzz3PcSKMXV7

 

[Julia]

An odd post for your first post, forgive my cynicism, but it sounds like spruiking to me.

Of course, just as well you're more awake than I obviously am, galumay.

 

[galumay]

I just became aware of The Cat's post and decided to check on another fourm where this kind of spruiking is the norm, and sure enough there was another "Cat" over there pushing the same line.

This, apparently, is what The Cat was referring to: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a906c89a-a250-11e4-aba2-00144feab7de.html#axzz3PcSKMXV7

Here is the actual notice to the ASX,

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150123/pdf/42w4d87sk12pfl.pdf

"Contrary to press speculation today, SGH has not submitted any offer or proposal beyond the file transfer transaction.
The file transfer transaction is not material."

Nothing to see here, move along please.

 

[SuperGlue]

"Doubling in size"? Do you mean the firm doubling the number of its employees, doubling its billing/profitability, or are you referring to the share price?

Maybe this report by Morgans with target price of $7.31

UK growth the driving force.

https://media.slatergordon.com.au/morgans-5-january-2015.pdf

 

[galumay]

So at last the expected announcement, purchase of Quindrell's PSD for $1.225b thru mixture of CR & debt.

Havent had a chance to analyse in detail, but retail entitlement offer is 2 for 3 at a 15% discount to last trade.

Will be interesting to see the market reaction later this week.

 

[skc]

So at last the expected announcement, purchase of Quindrell's PSD for $1.225b thru mixture of CR & debt.

Havent had a chance to analyse in detail, but retail entitlement offer is 2 for 3 at a 15% discount to last trade.

Will be interesting to see the market reaction later this week.

Massive acquisition. Shades of RCG and I expect share price to be north of $8.50 when it re-opens. It's a great PE arbitrage.