SDV - SciDev Limited

[wintermute]

Kipp are you looking at the 4C released just recently or the 4E that was actually for the quarter ending June 2007? Certainly in the most recent one there was a big chunk of cash (about 3.2 Million) spent on unspecified other fixed assets. No idea what these were, unless it was money spent on reconfiguring and getting the BDP operational again???

The 4E funnily enough has about 3 million listed in "non-current" assets... which is why I'm not sure which you were referring to. As for what they are, well some of the accounting practices of companies are beyond me, I think I need to get "reading financial reports for dummies"

Oh and I did another chart. I've posted this one at a number of sites but have so far only had one comment, and that was claws at HC who said it was the last straw and he sold all of his holdings when he saw it

I was looking at it from a cup half full perspective (ie some light at the end of the tunnel possibly by Feb next year....

Tony.

 

[monty4421]

To the person that continually puts his 2 million shares for sale each morning at 12 cents. You really are not helping the Share price.

 

[roland]

Well, INL is now below 10 cents - lowest it's been since April 06. Glad I sold out. I would have thought they may have had some sort of turnaround with the Chinese signing. I don't think that it is just the Zinc price and looking at the weakness and the chart, looks to me like it's going to keep falling.

Just my opinion, I'm not a chartist.

 

[Porper]

Well, INL is now below 10 cents - lowest it's been since April 06. Glad I sold out. I would have thought they may have had some sort of turnaround with the Chinese signing. I don't think that it is just the Zinc price and looking at the weakness and the chart, looks to me like it's going to keep falling.

Just my opinion, I'm not a chartist.

Chart is abysmal, not even worth posting.

The negative sentiment is so strong in this stock that it is hard to see it reviving.

Sellers always there on any slight rally.Have Ivanhoe still got 50 million left to sell ? If so then I think there is only one direction for the share price and it 'aint up.

A fundamentalist would say they have good growth prospects, the technical analyst would say different.

Unfortunately I hold in my super, apparantly for a very long time

 

[roland]

Intec down another 6%, anyone want to have a guess at the bottom. People are certainly caning this one.

 

[mango65]

Roland I reckon you have seen the bottom. Yes it hit 9.1 today but has since risen to 9.6 cents.
For a company that is cash flow positive and with known "ore reserves" it has had its low.
Watch out for the approval of the new mill.
Watch out for the Burnie Demo Plant results and the economic figures it generates.

 

[jollyfrog]

Hey Mango! Glad to hear you are so positive, especially after Dave giving you a smack on the wrist!
I agree with your thoughts, both about the company's future, but also anouncements of ANY GOOD NEWS!
I was VERY disheartened with the response from Dave, RE your question regarding zinc shipments. ( Dave is obviously a VERY busy man) when he cant take a few moments to reply to you in a civil manner!
Furthur I agree with you, Any good news is worth announcing. ( Gee it might even improve the SP) Heavens Above WE WOULDN'T WANT THAT NOW WOULD WE!!
Keep up the good posts, we ALL enjoy your comments, thanks JF

 

[coladuna]

While I still hold INL (for more than a year now), it's getting very old thinking "It must be the bottom. How can it go any lower?" only to be defied by this stock and see it go even lower. How many months have we been saying that for?

 

[mango65]

Thanks jollyfrog for your words of support. All I can say is that Dave must have had a "Blond" moment when he posted on the Intec Forum. Don't worry my hide is thicker than that of an elephant so the comment didn't even give me a scratch. I posted a reply similar to this when a thunder storm was imminent but obviously the reply did not leave "Home" as it is not recorded.
Like you I think that any good news is great news.
I look forward to any positive announcement.
The great ones will be the statistics from the Burnie Demo Plant and the approval of the planned mill.

 

[jama_kj]

Excellent announcement released today for the purchase of 10mil Ecobulbs over 12 months = $50mil revenue.

This doesn't include carbon credits which are between $10-$20 for every tonne

Each bulb is expected to equal between half and one tonne of carbon credits.

INT is up 12%

 

[wintermute]

OK well it has been quite a while since I posted last on INL (or anything here for that matter)... in that time I've become a dad, so have had a little less time

anyway I've redone the chart I posted a bit earlier. I've revised my low price to somewhere around 7c, and I reckon the turning point will be somewhere towards the end of Feb if the chart plays out the way I think it is.

Note that this chart is a monthly so I'm expecting a reaction low below the lower trendline, which is why I've revised lower price.

Of course it should be noted that pretty much all of my attempts at divining something from INL charts have been complete and utter failures, so take this with a very large grain of salt

Seasons greetings too all.

I still hold as I do believe in the company, but I'm not expecting any miraculous turnarounds and huge increases in the short term, though I do think the end of the downtrend is in sight

Tony.

 

[ASK]

Hello,

Im a 16 year old trader and a little over a month ago i purchased shares in INL, recently, the share price has begun to fall. To me, this has come as a suprise as Intec continues to release postive media releases, volume is good - but INL is struggling to break back through the 10 cent per share barrier.

Im a little concerned about the slipping share price, can anyone give me some tips as to what i should do?

Regards in advance,

Adam.

edit: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO

 

[rub92me]

Adam, the INL shareprice has been in a downtrend for the past 12 months. Stocks that are on a prolonged downtrend like INL tend to fare particularly bad when the market overall is doing badly. What you do is up to you, but you have to ask yourself: what was your plan when you bought the shares? Was it to hold for a number of years or was it in the hope to make a quick buck. If it is the latter then the recent down move tells you what to do. If you plan to hold for a number of years then you have to accept the fact that a shareprice doesn't always go up. All the best.

 

[ASK]

Adam, the INL shareprice has been in a downtrend for the past 12 months. Stocks that are on a prolonged downtrend like INL tend to fare particularly bad when the market overall is doing badly. What you do is up to you, but you have to ask yourself: what was your plan when you bought the shares? Was it to hold for a number of years or was it in the hope to make a quick buck. If it is the latter then the recent down move tells you what to do. If you plan to hold for a number of years then you have to accept the fact that a shareprice doesn't always go up. All the best.

Thanks for the advice - but im still a little confused as to why INL continues to fall despite all the positive media releases, to me, as a newbie trader- it doesnt make sense.

 

[wintermute]

Adam, it doesn't make sense to a lot of us more seasoned traders either, but it is the way it is. Whether it is simply negative sentiment feeding on itself, or whether there is a good reason that it is dropping that some people know that we don't is very hard to tell.

INL is not what I would call a good beginners stock. It appeals to "value" investors who have the patience (and the nerves) to sit back and see their initial investment do poorly for a while, with the belief that eventually they will be greatly rewarded. However there are no guarantees that is the way it will pan out.

I'm tipping that we will see sub 8c before we see it back over 10c. My average buy price is probably around 17.5c... I have an order in the market which I think has a good chance of being filled, and it is only marginally over 7c.

Having said all that, I really don't think we will see any significant increases in INL's sp until 2009. I think that we will see the end of the current downtrend by the end of March, but we could quite likely see sideways (or slightly upward movement) for a number of months after that.

One thing you need to be able to learn to do when trading is cut your losses if something isn't going to plan, preferably whilst they are still small. a 10% loss requires an approx 11% gain to make your money back. a 25% loss requires roughly a 33.5% gain to make your money back, and a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to make your money back!

The market in general at the moment is not good. almost everything in my portfolio is dropping.

The best thing to do in future is lay out a plan, and stick to it. Decide what price you want to buy at (stocks don't keep going up forever as you've discovered). set a profit goal, and sell some or all when you reach that goal. Set a get out level, and sell if the price drops to that point.

With INL I'm guilty of not setting a get out level, I just buy more when it drops, but that is not widely recommended. and in hind sight I would have been much better off just waiting for a change in sentiment and buying in then. I'm sure I could have seen the turnaround (which is yet to happen), and still bought for less than my current price of 17.5c

If you aren't already look at the charts of stocks, forget indicators, just look at the trend, and the volumes of shares being traded. A stock that is going up (in an uptrend) is generally safer to buy than one in a downtrend like what INL is.

As to what you should do, you need to do your own research, decide whether you have made the right choice, and not be afraid to admit you made a mistake if it appears that is the case. INL to me is a long term investment, and not for the feint of heart!

Tony.

 

[ASK]

thanks alot Tony!

The money i currently have in INL is not something that i need to get my hands anytime soon, having said that - if i see the sp float above my average buy price of 10.5 , im out of there!

thanks again Tony

ill let you know how i go.

Adam

 

[ASK]

well wintermute, looks like your prediction might just come true. INL looks like its heading towards that 7cent benchmark!

 

[wintermute]

yep got my 7.2c order almost completely filled today, just 1600 shares short. I now have to hope that my predictions of the price turning around starting in feb are correct too!

note that the chart doesn't show todays low because of 16 hour delayed data.

Tony.

 

[wintermute]

and here is the commentary that went with that chart in response to Healyn at SS. just so people know what was going through my head when I decided to put a buy order in the market about three weeks ago at 7.2c

Hi Healyn, Yes I have thought about the upswing too, otherwise I would not have bought. now bear in mind that my previous charts for INL My predictions of the trend reversal failed (these were ones I posted over at HC), but this one is a little different, my reasoning on those was flawed in that I was interpreting what is in fact a trend continuation signal as a trend reversal signal, bit of a problem getting my triangle formations mixed up wink.gif

Anyway I've attached my long term monthly chart. Basically the key element I am punting on with this is pattern repetition. So far it has been playing out as I thought, the end of this month will be make or break though. Perhaps I should have delayed and bought at the end of the month if the price closed at 8c or higher... but hell I like living dangerously wink.gif

The key thing in this chart is the bottom trend line. there are three previous breakouts starting on that lower trend line. The second one was a bit half hearted, but it maintained the upward trend. I've marked these roughly points 1, 2 and 3.

at points 1 and 2 the weekly rsi was in oversold territory for a little while and then sideways for a bit. It is just moving into oversold teritory now.

Don't worry about the fact that the current candle has broken down through the trend line, it is the last price of the month that will be the important one. At points 1 and 3 there were large dips below the final closing monthly price.

I've put a horizontal line in at 7.2c which I felt there was support at, that's why I put my bid in at that price (as well as because no one else had a bid in at that price so I got the front of the queue )

The other thing with points 2 and 3 is that there was a similar down trend which forms a triangle meeting with the up trend, this is the bit that I'm betting on. basically one of the trends has to end and it is running out of room, this is why I previously said end of January or possibly sometime in Feb.

I also figured that we should get half yearly results around this time as well, which hopefully will be a catalyst for some positive movement in the sp.

Now add to all that my fundamental research which tells me that INL is undervalued (though with the falling zinc price and the rising dollar, not as much as it used to be, based purely on the JV concentrate sales, which I still maintain is the only thing the market is looking at) and I feel reasonably safe buying at this point. As far as I am concerned, I'm getting the technology side of the company for free.

We may see a very big tail on that January candle, meaning I could have got an even cheaper price, but I've tried for that before and missed out. I chose my buy price based on the above interpretation of the chart, time will tell if it was a good or bad choice!!

Now at the moment I'm leaning towards a repeat of point two followed by a repeat of point three. something small to break the down trend with some sideways movement for a number of months, followed by a breakout. That would probably fit well with the timing of upcoming HRP announcements...

Anyway hope that all made some sense!! In essence I'm looking for a repeat of the pattern at points one two and three.

in the end it was only a small purchase a tad over $2000, but at the moment $2000 is a fair bit for me to spending as cash is a bit tight.

In the end I'm only trying to pick repeating patterns in the chart, there are no gaurantees that it will happen again. I didn't have enough faith in my chart to sell at 12c when I had the chance, even though I was predicting it would go down to now, so I think that the chartist extraordinare is a little misplaced. If the turnaround happens as predicted, then maybe I'll graciously accept the compliment wink.gif

Cheers,

Tony.

 

[ASK]

we've broken that 7.2 barrier... high volume, could this be all INL holders dumping stock in the face of a declining share price? im starting to get a little worried... letting go of the shares might become a reality =!!!