SDV - SciDev Limited

[mango65]

Well for a cash flow positive company with known resources I believe Mr market has got it wrong.
Further they have already proven their new process at the demonstration plant so I am just waiting for the economics of what is proposed to be issued.

I am not on the list but hold a fairly substantial amount in my long term portfolio and will ring the company and speak to them.

I've had contact with Dave Summit a few times and they say all the right things, however the share price is a serious worry.The market obviously doesn't think they are going to make it.

who to believe, Mr market or the company ?

 

[mango65]

Well for a cash flow positive company with known resources I believe Mr market has got it wrong.
Further they have already proven their new process at the demonstration plant so I am just waiting for the economics of what is proposed to be issued.

Well being inquisitive about what is happening in Tasmania I forwarded some questions to Dave about progress on a couple of matters.
Despite being on holidays he has answered them and they are now on Forum for your information.

 

[drmb]

Well for a cash flow positive company with known resources I believe Mr market has got it wrong. Further they have already proven their new process at the demonstration plant so I am just waiting for the economics of what is proposed to be issued.

Hi Mango - I know from HC that you are a long time holder of INL, at least 3 years, so assume you are at least 2x your investment - unless you have been accumulating on the rises, in which case your holding will be less.

Despite the assurances of INL, it seems stuck in a long downward channel, see my clumsy chart.

Hosting a visit to the sites by analysts may spark a bit of interest but as to your comment "I believe Mr market has got it wrong", I think there are only 2 rules for the sharemarket:

1) The market is always right.

2) When you think the market is wrong, read rule 1.

I hold unhappily since I think the company was not fully upfront with its technology which no-one seems interested in, and has now swung from a tech company with licensing opportunities, to a small producer with limited production, and limited upside.

No wonder shareholders are uptight if reported correctly at SS (I don't belong so not sure what the angst is), and po'ed at issue of opps to key personnel for paltry 15c, in 2012.

I note that inl is down 0.5c today, at 12.5c, no surprises there.

 

[resourceboom]

The efficient market hypothesis is a load of crock imo,
and that of many others (eg buffett)

Just my opinion, I won't bother replying to any comeback.

1) The market is always right.

2) When you think the market is wrong, read rule 1.

 

[mango65]

Yes it is surely stuck in a long downward trough. Unfortunately I haven't doubled my money and while still showing some capital gain my return is behind bank interest for the three years. DRAT!! I don't hold unhappily as I reckon that things will improve in the near future. I am an optimist.
Sorry to hear that you "hold unhappily since I think the company was not fully upfront with its technology which no-one seems interested in, and has now swung from a tech company with licensing opportunities, to a small producer with limited production, and limited upside."
The company has been very up-front with its technology and has published widely. Unfortunately no-one wants to be first at implementing any of the company's metal producing patents in case things don't come out as intended. Thus Intec itself is going to do it with the Hellyer Residues Plant.
At the moment it is just a small Zn/Pb concentrate producer using an old time-worn method. However it is, by going back to the future, that the company is generating cash to operate.
Certainly trading at 12.5 cents today doesn't make me happy but I expect that sort of price until some good news comes out over the next couple of months.



Just had a look at Forum and see that James Bell will be taking the phone calls.
The following is copied from Forum.


Philip Wood (Information): Shareholder Discussions with James Bell re 2007 Options
As Kieran Rodgers and I will be escorting a group of broking analysts and industry participants on a
tour of Intec's Tasmanian operations on Thursday/Friday 4/5 October 2007 and Dave Sammut is on
family holiday, James Bell (an Intec Non-executive Director and member of its Nomination and
Remuneration Committee) has kindly offered to speak with shareholders who contact the Company
over those two days pursuant to my submission yesterday to this Forum inviting them to do so.
Somewhat surprisingly to me, nobody today took up my offer to speak with them by phone about
their previously stated concerns.

However it would appear that he will not be busy if the last sentence above is continued today.

 

[GOOGOOJEE]

Can anyone explain the market depth for this morning ?A large buying (1mil) volume between 13.5c - 14 c, looks good for half an hour and someone dumps the shares at 13.5c and 13c........... why these ppl dump their shares at 13c when the buying side is looking good (willing to pay 14c for it)............ i dun get this........

 

[mango65]

Nor do I Googoojee but it happens all the time. Price goes up a cent or less and the sellers come in to smash the price down again.
Oh well give it time and soooooooooooooner or laaaaaaaaaaaater the price will go up and stay up.

 

[WRONG'UN]

INL hold 19.6m BSM shares. The 13.5c rise in BSM so far today works out to about 0.5c per INL share - might explain the rush of blood.
Cheers.

 

[drmb]

INL hold 19.6m BSM shares. The 13.5c rise in BSM so far today works out to about 0.5c per INL share - might explain the rush of blood. Cheers.

Would appear to have been entirely due to BSM ann made at 9am (upgrade) and little to do with with other INL activiites which continue to be mostly ignored by market imo. Chart below shows dollar value of course of trades during the day which shows the flurry of activity was mostly all in the morning, died in the b#m in the arfternoon. Back to sidewise track, imo

 

[mango65]

Yes I'm sure any bounce in the INL share price on Friday was due to the BSM announcement.
However re-rating and coverage of Intec will come I hope from the metal analysts of broking firms that were taken on a tour of the Burnie Demo Plant, the Hellyer mill, and Bass Metals on Thursday and Friday of last week.
Remembering that INL owns almost 25% of BSM.

 

[jman2007]

Hi all,

I don't hold any INL, but of all the stocks that I follow, imo this would have to be one of the trickier ones to trade by far. Not one for the novice trader, that's for sure.

I think part of the problem here is that because there are a lot of people sitting on some pretty significant losses, it has lead to some pretty shrewd trading. I haven't really seen this stock build up any serious momentum in a long time, whenever a mini-break threatens, the sellers seem to nip it in the bud pretty quick, often at a smidgen above the opening price.

IMO it will take some pretty solid announcements from INL, AND a clear indication that the Market cares about their technology for this cycle to be broken. I know it is completely inaccurate, but I think a lot of people still view INL with some scepticism, and believe these guys run around a lab in white coats with mysterious coloured liquids.

Just thought I'd put my 2c in
jman2007

 

[Sean K]

The bottom of this is starting to round up if that's any consolation to long term holders. Starting to make higher lows....just!

 

[mango65]

Good to see the "up-turn" Kennas but I won't get too excited as I'm sure there will be dumpers as it tries to climb higher.
It is just the same as always; give it time! It WILL go!

 

[GOOGOOJEE]

Mango, u are damn right.......... sellers now dumping their shares at 13.5 c .......... i guess patient is the key ......but sometime u just cannot stop urself swearing in front of the screen when u see the SP movement........ even the whole market and the metal price is up ............ when will the sky turns blue?

 

[mango65]

Well INL is going no where today because most shareholders are sitting on their shares waiting for the news releases to come.
Fewer than 400,000 traded and brokers are doing their friends favours.
First 13 cent trade was at 12.23. It was a crossed trade.
Price went back to 13.5 but at 14.45 there was another crossed trade than again brought the price down to 13.
Now back at 13.5 so watch for the next crossed trade.

Intec's day will come. It is just how soon.
One could have mentioned JRV along with WMT and BLR as non-starters however JRV still has a SP higher than INL. And JRV has nothing going for it.

 

[wintermute]

I wouldn't read too much into crossed trades mango. Could simply be that two people who use the same online broker were each at the top of the buy and sell queues.

I have had quite a few trades executed myself (both buy and sell) that have shown in the course of sales as crossed trades

I'm starting to think that the sentiment on INL is self fullfiling and nothing short of a spectacular out of left field announcement, or convincing profit statements are going to change that. I suspect that at least some are making a lot of money trading the swings of inl (though it would take quite large stakes to do so). I wonder how much of the doom and gloom I read is actually helping them buy driving the price down each time there is a bit of a rally.

Anyway I'm being patient, only down a few thousand at the moment but stand to make that back plus a lot more if I hold on, well at least that is my belief anyway!

Tony.

 

[roland]

Does anyone have any new thoughts on INL. I remember reading their annual report and it seems that they are due for a turnaround. From memory they have a reasonably large holding in BSM who have been doing somewhat better.

Maybe a chartist could drop a graph in here to see what's going on.

 

[Porper]

Does anyone have any new thoughts on INL. I remember reading their annual report and it seems that they are due for a turnaround. From memory they have a reasonably large holding in BSM who have been doing somewhat better.

Maybe a chartist could drop a graph in here to see what's going on.

Roland, the chart doesn't tell much unfortunately.Well apart from being in a steep downtrend that is.

I hold this stock in my super, wish I'd paid the tax and sold, but that's hindsight for you.
INL has been a major disappointment to all and is a bit of a laughing stock at the moment.

The market don't believe.

The directors wanting cheap options for their pathetic performance is a laugh.

Not that I am bitter and twisted or emotionally envolved.

 

[wintermute]

I don't really have anything new to add. I'm still holding, and will possibly buy some more, but probably not till January. I think that we will see 10c touched again before we see a recovery.

What I personally think will cause a turnaround will be the release of the half yearly report (I'm backing a decent profit announcement, which will hopefully wake the market up).

20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing, I should have sold when it went below what I thought was the support at 23c... instead I bought more, and more and more

Personally I don't think the management have done a bad job at all, I don't think anything they said or did would have made a difference to the current sp, it is just negativity that is causing it IMO.

Interesting everyone seems to think (at SS and HC at least) that the managment did a really bad job over the last financial year. The sp at the 30th June 2007 was 25% higher than it was at 30th June 2006 (yes there was a high in the middle of the year, but that was zinc boom driven, and something completely outside of managements control). It is now back at about the same as it was at June 2006. the last 3 months has been worse.

I did a chart the other day plotting INL agains VPE (two shares with not a lot in common appart from both going down)... the interesting thing was they had tracked each other almost exactly, both being down roughly 40% over the last 6 months. This leads me to think it is a flight away from shares perceived to be bad (for whatever reason) and not necessarily anything to do with an individual company.

Tony.

 

[Kipp]

Tony, do you have any ideas what the $3 mill invested in non-current assets in the last QTRly cashflow represent? There was no obvious mention of it elsewhere in the QTRly.

Why aren't INL sitting on 6.5 mill cash instead... maybe could pay a divy then. ha ha.