Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SDL - Sundance Resources

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Carbon Steel and othe Bag Holders,

You can bag me all you like but the stock is down 30% in the last couple of weeks. FMG up around 80% and BRM up over 10% from my first post.

CUS up over 30% as well as AGO. All of my stocks are up including CBA at 25,
BHP and RIO.

My first post, i said that you will be able to buy at 7 cents in a couple of weeks, but i suppose that i am the idiot????

You will see 7 by the end of the week, maybe tomorrow.

Carbon, if you try and compare SDL to BRM, you are just mad. BRM has 102 million dollars in cash, ZERO debt, existing rail network a few kms away and a new port facility. More than 1.3 billion tonnes of quality iron ore and a market cap of just 135 million.

SDL has a 400K piece of land, no rail, no port and hundreds of kms from the ocean. Not to mention Africia, no funding and no chance of funding. Stock at 8cents and only going lower.

If you think that this mine is going ahead, you need to pull your head out of your butttt. I would calculate that you have more chance winning the lotto.

I was just trying to warn you inexperienced investors about getting into this stock and holding the bag. See you at 7cents this week, maybe even .6.5cents. :banghead:Good luck all!
 
When the All Ords keeps dropping you can expect speculative stocks to go lower with it. I still can't find a point in the last few weeks from where SDL has apparently fallen 30%. Take a look at the SDL graph against the All Ords graph and there is your reason for SDL tracking slightly lower.

Atlas is producing, Fortescue is producing and in the midst of some serious equity discussions. They aren't comparable situations at the moment. Those invested in SDL are taking a greater risk, but the upside is much higher also.
 
Muffin Man,

My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.

At that time FMG was 1.82 now 2.82 (as high as 3.40)
At that time BRM was .90 now 1.01 (sold at 1.08 and got back in at .99)

Many other small iron explorers and exporters have done well or held steady since then but not SDL. It just keeps going lower and will keep going lower.

I cannot understand anyone who thinks that this SDL will be mining iron ore with the next 10 years. I will eat my hat if that happens. Even, very good, cash flow positive, low debt, long standing large caps are having trouble getting JV, captial raising, rolling debt ect.. so SDL does not stand a chance.

Anyone can say that because the All Ords is going down, all spec stocks are taking a beating, but that is not true my friend.

I think that most people who own this stock just like the fact that they own
tens of thousands of shares which will become basically worthless IMO.

I having been getting bagged on this board for telling the truth and predicting the movements.

CUS is a Spec stock and has gone up nearly everyday for weeks. So have many others.
 
snopandsnap said:
Muffin Man,

My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.

At that time FMG was 1.82 now 2.82 (as high as 3.40)
At that time BRM was .90 now 1.01 (sold at 1.08 and got back in at .99)

Many other small iron explorers and exporters have done well or held steady since then but not SDL. It just keeps going lower and will keep going lower.

I cannot understand anyone who thinks that this SDL will be mining iron ore with the next 10 years. I will eat my hat if that happens. Even, very good, cash flow positive, low debt, long standing large caps are having trouble getting JV, captial raising, rolling debt ect.. so SDL does not stand a chance.

Anyone can say that because the All Ords is going down, all spec stocks are taking a beating, but that is not true my friend.

I think that most people who own this stock just like the fact that they own
tens of thousands of shares which will become basically worthless IMO.

I having been getting bagged on this board for telling the truth and predicting the movements.

CUS is a Spec stock and has gone up nearly everyday for weeks. So have many others.
Click to expand...

Hmm, let's see your list of specs that have gone up nearly every day for weeks please ;) I still am not sure why you think that all those issues, Africa, distance, etc are certain indicators of doom? As shown previously, even with the costs involved, the operation is most definitely a profitable one. I can't see why SDL should not be able to find a steel maker to agree to take their ore? I can't see why the Cam gov't would not pitch in their cash to take up their full share in a project that will provide around 8% boost to their GDP? Can you imagine ANY gov't who wouldn't?? What would KRudd do with a company who had a project in the middle of the outback that was worth 80 billion a year to Oz?

Just my :2twocents

Of course I hold so according to you my arguments can simply be disregarded as I am blindly hoping that SDL won't go under :rolleyes:
 
snopandsnap said:
Muffin Man,

My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.

At that time FMG was 1.82 now 2.82 (as high as 3.40)
At that time BRM was .90 now 1.01 (sold at 1.08 and got back in at .99)

Many other small iron explorers and exporters have done well or held steady since then but not SDL. It just keeps going lower and will keep going lower.

I cannot understand anyone who thinks that this SDL will be mining iron ore with the next 10 years. I will eat my hat if that happens. Even, very good, cash flow positive, low debt, long standing large caps are having trouble getting JV, captial raising, rolling debt ect.. so SDL does not stand a chance.

Anyone can say that because the All Ords is going down, all spec stocks are taking a beating, but that is not true my friend.

I think that most people who own this stock just like the fact that they own
tens of thousands of shares which will become basically worthless IMO.

I having been getting bagged on this board for telling the truth and predicting the movements.

CUS is a Spec stock and has gone up nearly everyday for weeks. So have many others.
Click to expand...

OK, I've got SDL closing on that date at 10 cents, which would be around a 20% fall. But if you look 2 weeks before that, the stock was at 8 cents. If you look 2 weeks after that, the stock was at 8.6 cents. The stock is, and has been, trading in it's current range for a good 3 months now, so there has really been no huge fall as you have said. As I said, SDL has been tracking the broader market somewhat. It's a high risk investment, it's a speculative investment, so expect the stock price to fluctuate more than others. That's investment 101 and as an investment banker it's something you should already know.

I'm not aware of many other mining explorers that are yet to secure capital finance for their projects that are doing extremely well.

FMG, AGO etc are not valid comparisons as they are producers. They do not exhibit the same characteristics as the SDL stock so comparing them is rather misleading. You can't compare a producer with SDL because the companies are at different points.

I don't think you are telling people anything they don't already know about financing being the major hurdle for the project to get off the ground. But there are a number of positives for the project also. The Cameroon Government looks as though it will be buying in further (which will guarantee Governemnt co-operation and a source of 15% of the capital requirements), it's an independent iron ore source (not held by BHP, RIO etc), the costs of production will be on the lower end of the scale, the payback period of the CAPEX amounts are favorable, port infrastructure is basically sorted out, and confidential discussions with numerous interested parties have begun. Throw in that there is at least 2.4Bn tonnes of ore there (maybe more), and that the Congo site directly to the south of Mbalam also looks promising. These are the reasons people hold SDL.

There have also been numerous examples of steel companies and other industry participants willing to invest huge amounts in iron ore projects during the current economic downturn. Look through this thread for examples.

Risky - Yes.

Potential - Massive.
 
Interesting to note that Gindalbie / Sundance merge valued SDL at $1.6b (.88cents per share ) back in 2007. That is before there was a JORC on Billions of IO, before the CAM Govt Agreement, before SDL chosen as preferred Port Terminal, before CamCongo entity ensuring further Billions of IO in Congo, before the recent run on FMG / RIO by China which still sees great long term value in IO, before the Brazil's Minerios Deal late last year.

Yes the world has changed but IO Pricing may drop 30%, but it still leaves 2009 Iron Ore Prices higher than they were in 2007.

China won't be exporting for a couple of years, so what! SDL won't be producing for three years. China will want SDL up and running before the world recovers and export demand picks up. Not to mention the gang that runs China are going to pump it for a couple of years with internal stimulas. There will be another major Chinese stimulas PACKAGE announcement soon, thats why there is a run on RIO / FMG now by the Chinese.

Also, BHP have plenty of money, missed out on RIO'S IO, they could build there IO reserves significantly instead by doing a takeover of SDL and at the same time compete with VALE direct also give them access to the European Markets. You Beauty.


Zodiac:)
 
Zodiac said:
Interesting to note that Gindalbie / Sundance merge valued SDL at $1.6b (.88cents per share ) back in 2007. That is before there was a JORC on Billions of IO, before the CAM Govt Agreement, before SDL chosen as preferred Port Terminal, before CamCongo entity ensuring further Billions of IO in Congo, before the recent run on FMG / RIO by China which still sees great long term value in IO, before the Brazil's Minerios Deal late last year.

Yes the world has changed but IO Pricing may drop 30%, but it still leaves 2009 Iron Ore Prices higher than they were in 2007.

China won't be exporting for a couple of years, so what! SDL won't be producing for three years. China will want SDL up and running before the world recovers and export demand picks up. Not to mention the gang that runs China are going to pump it for a couple of years with internal stimulas. There will be another major Chinese stimulas PACKAGE announcement soon, thats why there is a run on RIO / FMG now by the Chinese.

Also, BHP have plenty of money, missed out on RIO'S IO, they could build there IO reserves significantly instead by doing a takeover of SDL and at the same time compete with VALE direct also give them access to the European Markets. You Beauty.


Zodiac:)
Click to expand...
A refreshingly cool perspective in the hot desert snopandsnap wasteland:bier:! What say you snoppo:bowdown:? Isn't it good news that SDL didn't meet your price target for this week?;)
 
CarbonSteel said:
Just wondering where you got this number from jono?
80 billion per annum is quite a wad of cash!
At USD60/ton and production 50 million tons, income would be USD3billion.
Click to expand...

Nah mate, just comparing the relative worth of what an SDL equivalent would be to Oz, eg SDL would be worth 8% to Cameroon, so in Oz that would mean around 80bn.

Just pointing out that there is NO WAY that any government would pass up the opportunity to support that size project, eg SDL will get govt support IMO
 
Singapore_Sling said:
Hi,
SDL-Prices in Germany are down 34% and I can not find any other hint, but the overall market in the past days.

However, since there are no big news (...about JVs) ; here are some about the Kribi Port Project to feed the thread:

http://www.crtv.cm/cont/nouvelles/n...wSection=economie&idField=2602&table=noticias

:)
Click to expand...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest point in 12 years following a $61.7 billion quarterly loss, the biggest in American corporate history, by insurer AIG.

SDL Down -6.41%
XAO Down -1.6%.
DOW Down -4.24%
02:45:50 PM Sydney Time, 3/03/2009

Looks like a good buying opportunity today, or a bad time to sell.
 
snopandsnap said:
Muffin Man,

My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.

At that time FMG was 1.82 now 2.82 (as high as 3.40)
At that time BRM was .90 now 1.01 (sold at 1.08 and got back in at .99)

Many other small iron explorers and exporters have done well or held steady since then but not SDL. It just keeps going lower and will keep going lower.

I cannot understand anyone who thinks that this SDL will be mining iron ore with the next 10 years. I will eat my hat if that happens. Even, very good, cash flow positive, low debt, long standing large caps are having trouble getting JV, captial raising, rolling debt ect.. so SDL does not stand a chance.

Anyone can say that because the All Ords is going down, all spec stocks are taking a beating, but that is not true my friend.

I think that most people who own this stock just like the fact that they own
tens of thousands of shares which will become basically worthless IMO.

I having been getting bagged on this board for telling the truth and predicting the movements.

CUS is a Spec stock and has gone up nearly everyday for weeks. So have many others.
Click to expand...


Let's see how one can make a situation look by taking an arbitrary point in time and measuring the rise and rall of two stocks for that period:

Since February 24 (snopandsnap's last post):

SDL down 4.87%
BRM down 20.59%

So just as snopandsnap took one small period of trading and tried to use it to prove something, could we do the same?
 
Price Alert!!:D​


Share price of SDL Likely to plummet over the next 10 days!
My Reason for stating this is that I just topped up with a few more today!!!

On a more worthy note, a little more info on the port:



Kribi Ports Complex: Steering committee adopt installation plan
02/03/2009: Members of the steering committee of Kribi Deep Sea Port met last week end for their fourth session.
The meeting was chaired by the Chairman of the committee, Louis Paul Motaze. During the sitting, the new plan for the installation of the ports infrastructure was examined and adopted.

This new plan takes account of the different changes recorded since the earlier feasibility studies on the project.

The new traffic projection of the port for example, has prompted the re -adaptation of the building plan.

According to the new plan, the kribi port installations shall extend to some virgin sites where the environment will not be greatly affected.

These installations have been shift downwards to localities in the southern parts of kribi where the marine, topographical and environmental conditions are best to host vessels.

This 282 billion francs project shall now be made up of four terminals;

The Kribi terminal would be built for artisan fishing and leisure activities.
The grand Batanga terminal would be specialised in tourism, industrial, fishing and other similar activities.
The Mboro terminal would see the industrial, commercial and naval activities.
The Lolabe terminal would be focused on the transportation of iron ore and minerals.
The decision to have the terminals specialised in specific services, was made at the end of a round table conference organised in Yaoundé in May 2008 during which investors declared their intensions towards the project.

Ciao fellow SDL'ers, J.:D
 
snopandsnap said:
Hey Carbon,

keep doing you TA on this stock. I am sure it will help:2twocents

Talk the other traders into holding the bad with you.
Click to expand...

:nosympath
Hey snoppo,

As an SDL holder, I wish to extend my sympathies re the extremely sad performance of the shares you obviously hold (FMG & BRM) and strongly recommended to us SDL holders ( what a guy!:bowdown:), whilst bagging our selection.

What now Einstien?

I challenge you to espouse your prediction for SDL, at let's say July 10, 2009. If you care to grace us with your prediction, I will offer you the opportunity to make even more money by entering into a wager with you.

Got guts snoppo?
 
Does anyone have any information on how much longer SDL can hold off financially without a backer? Is it a matter of months, or could they last for up to a year?

This is where it is going to get interesting, as it is going to come to a head shortly. Whether it explodes positively depends on whether they can get a backer before they go bust.

Either way, my gut feeling is that we are going to find out one way or the other in the near future.
 
SDL had 19m in the bank at December 31 2008. In the December Qtr they spent 13m. If you use the same 13m figure for this Qtr it would leave SDL with 6m at the end of March. Throughout though, SDL has been saying expenditure will fall as they have basically stopped exploring at Mbalam. What kind of saving this will achieve is anyone's guess.

The other thing to consider is that if the Cameroon Government takes up the extra 15% in CamIron, SDL will receive half the development costs at Mbalam to date as a cash payment. If/When this happens is also anyone's guess.

I'd certainly like to hear some news soon!
 
This article is similar/same to the one listed a few posts above, however it has some extra information which is of interest.

Cameroon: Kribi Deep Seaport - Construction Plan to be Revised
Lukong Pius Nyuylime
2 March 2009


This is one of the key issues discussed Last Friday in Kribi by the Steering Committee. The Kribi Deep Seaport multibillion project is readjusting in order to adapt to new circumstances. This was one of the major issues discussed last Friday in Kribi by members of the project steering committee.

Meeting in its fourth session under the chairmanship of its president, Louis Paul Motaze, Minister of the Economy, Planning and Regional Development, the committee members examined and adopted the general plan for the installation of the port infrastructure.

The main issue at hand was to continue with the plan to adapt the general plan to new dispensation. This, in effect, has to do with shifting the installations downward to localities in the southern part of Kribi where the marine, topographical and environmental conditions are best to host vessels. By this token, the Kribi Deep Seaport, henceforth referred to as the Kribi Ports Complex, will harbour four different terminals each with its specificities in terms of services and activities.

According to the Director of the Project , Louis Nlend Banack, the Kribi Ports Complex will entertain four main activities: artisan fishing and leisure activities to be concentrated at the Kribi terminal, tourism, industrial fishing and other similar activities at the Grand Batanga terminal, industrial, commercial and naval activities at Mboro and iron ore and mineral transportation at Lolabe terminal.

The decision to specialise the terminals has in effect been on the discussion table since May last year during the round table conference organised in Yaounde which equally provided occasion for investors to declare their intensions towards the project.

The readaptation exercise, as explained by the Minister of the Economy, Planning and Regional Development, stems from the changes that have taken place since the early feasibility studies were made. "Traffic projections have changed, many other factors have changed and the advisory engineer has proposed that we readapt the building plan", Minister Motaze said, stating however that this will only be confirmed by the studies to be launched soon. "Investors who are ready to build the port are agreed on these changes", he said.

The advantage of the new proposal is that it is taking the port installations to virgin sites where the activities will have negligible nefarious effects on the environment. At Mboro where the general cargo port with industrial and commercial character will be posted ship carriers of 100,000 tonnes will be received. The Lolabe terminal on its part has characteristics that will provide facilities for exportation of iron from Mbalam developed by CAMIRON. It will receive very big ship carriers of 250,000 tonnes and will need high depth of water of 22 metres minimum.

The Kribi meeting took steering committee members to the four sites during which they made an appreciation of the characteristics therein. These, as explained in the final statement of the meeting, include the possible traffic to be received by each terminal, the physical characteristics of the site (topography and maritime), optimal cost of construction, economic benefits and environmental protection.

Estimated to cost over CFA 282 billion, work on the first phase of the Kribi Ports Complex may still begin as earlier programmed in December, 2009 and the first services operational by the end of 2013.

It is encouraging that they may begin work on it as early as December this year with it being operational by the end of 2013, but what is CFA 282 Billion?

http://allafrica.com/stories/200903021647.html
 

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