SDL - Sundance Resources
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me to, can someone please explain?
In my view: and in fact I am surprised it hasn’t gone the other way. The offer, and the subsequent acceptance is a joke. This a very quick and (simple) example of a board who has no idea how to conduct business. Why? Let’s look at it:
1. You can use all the monthly avg.s you like and trading ranges as a percentage yet it still means little. X percent of very little is still little. Think about. If I say I will give you 30% of 10 cents what do you get? 3 cents, which is not much. Sure, it’s a great return, yet is little in the grand scheme. However, if I gave you 30% of $100 then you have something. Its more tangible and you can do something with it whereas 3 cents will do nothing.
2. The initial offer, if I recall correctly as I don’t have the figures to hand was some 40c below actual share value (that is shares to potential resource value), and so we are only 7 cents closer.
3. It will be approx. 10 months before you see your money (which in itself is an appalling timeline, all the benefit to Hanlong and all the risk to SDL and its shareholder) if you wait for the agreement to pass, which infers that if the stock went to 57c on the market then you will be making nothing for 10mths as the value has been met.
4. There will be no counter offer. No data room has been set-up, no one else has expressed an interest and so there won’t be a counter offer.
5. As with point 4, the terms of the agreement pretty much mean no one else will get a look-in.
6. Because this rubbish board has said yes they will not – as they haven’t been for the past 4mths – be looking at other options, so no other partners, or financing is being sort which means this is a deal done, as far as the board is concerned.
7. If Hanlong pulled out, or the board pulled out for whatever reasons it would mean that nearly 14mths of the project timeline had been wasted, and more importantly the stock price will plummet.
8. There is a feeling amongst the avg. stock holder that this is a rubbish price on offer and are quite possibly going to vote against it if they don’t get out now, so if that happens then the price will plummet again as there will be no agreement, or on the flip side if Hanlong still want SDL they will need to cough up more.
9. And lastly, yet not the only point is that there is no resolution to the insider trading issues.
So in the end, if the agreement fails for whatever reason the price will plummet, if the agreement goes ahead all you can hope for is 57c in 10 months, and there is no potential counter bid from anywhere or anyone and so this is why it has not jumped to 57c.
Most avg. investors will be doing their figures and thinking, I got most of my shares at x amt, this gives me y in my pocket so I’ll take it now. Look at it this way: 10,000 shares at 10 cents (if you were lucky) is $1000 spent. Now you can cash in and get $4700 (assume 47c sale price). A 470% increase. Now you can use that money now to make more, invest elsewhere or spend. Or wait for 10c more so instead of 470% you make 570%, or in real terms another $1000. So buy BHP at today’s price, approx. $33 ($4700/$33) and you will get 142 shares, which even if they make half of the project analysts values – assume avg. is $55 target – and you make $22/2 (give you half) then 142 shares * $44 is $6248, some $548 more and you might have got some dividends as well.
So why didn’t it bounce, it’s a junk offer with a junk acceptance that has more down's than up's. Just my view.
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Thank you very much bassman. It is now a reality and a dilemma. I am very inclined towards Chessplayers' attitude. When the paperwork comes, I am inclined to vote no to this agreement. See his post from today. As I understand it, IO was worth $1/T in the ground 2 years ago. Now Chinese demand has increased and our board has sold us out at a measly 57 cents!
Will they still get salaries, buy their cheap options and do nothing for the next 10 months while we SH's give Hanlong an interest free loan?Not only does it not make sense, I feel like I must buy the biggest jar of lubricant available. I suppose the Chinese make that too!
Am I angry? You bet! Especially after believing Giulios' words! ("We're still negotiating with others......Hanlongs' offer is way low"....etc.)
But what do others think? Will you rebel or will you accept and if so, why?
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Sundance is disappointing. THis is absolute rubbish.
This is a lowball offer and Sundance are being very lazy in trying to develop the Mbalam project. I don't even see how it's going to be shipping anything but hot air in 2014 / 2015 at this rate.
FFS stop lowballing us and get started on the damn project. It's good quality DSO, just need to get the infrastructure up. Are these guys amateurs at mining? geez.
/rant over.
But yes, lousy deal today.
This is a lowball offer and Sundance are being very lazy in trying to develop the Mbalam project. I don't even see how it's going to be shipping anything but hot air in 2014 / 2015 at this rate.
FFS stop lowballing us and get started on the damn project. It's good quality DSO, just need to get the infrastructure up. Are these guys amateurs at mining? geez.
/rant over.
But yes, lousy deal today.
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Were we really waiting for 3.5 billion worth of a funding miracle to get it going? And waiting till 2015 to cash in your chips?
Who knows by then China may have become totally dysfunctional.
It's hardly a premium, however I'd be confident that SDL would be trading around .25c or lower without it!
If that were the case I am fairly sure you'd be happier with .57 in a short while or even .45 today.
Who knows by then China may have become totally dysfunctional.
It's hardly a premium, however I'd be confident that SDL would be trading around .25c or lower without it!
If that were the case I am fairly sure you'd be happier with .57 in a short while or even .45 today.
skc
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Agree.
57c certainty is worth a lot more than $2 per share in 3 years that only has a 10% chance of being reached.
Cash in your SDL chips and there are plenty of other iron ore shares out there. Plenty of them are well off their recent highs - they are just as much a bargain IF you think China is going stronger forever...
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Discount is because ppl are skeptical its going to go thru. Variety of factors
From AFR i think
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Thank you very much bassman. It is now a reality and a dilemma. I am very inclined towards Chessplayers' attitude. When the paperwork comes, I am inclined to vote no to this agreement. See his post from today. As I understand it, IO was worth $1/T in the ground 2 years ago. Now Chinese demand has increased and our board has sold us out at a measly 57 cents!
Not only does it not make sense, I feel like I must buy the biggest jar of lubricant available. I suppose the Chinese make that too!
Am I angry? You bet! Especially after believing Giulios' words! ("We're still negotiating with others......Hanlongs' offer is way low"....etc.)
But what do others think? Will you rebel or will you accept and if so, why?
Sorry, referred to wrong poster. Should of course have been "mystockview" not "Chessplayer"
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Wow, its not very often you see a stock that has been bid for close less than what it opened at. Do I think this is a trend of things to come with this stock? Sure is!
Last closing: 3/10 was 42c. Opened: 4/10 46.5c. Closed: 4/10 45.5c, and even retreated further back. Ouch!
IMO ... pick a price and sell, sell, sell. I fear this will only end in tears if you dont. For if you wait 10mths you will make little, compared to what you could make elsewhere, and you run the very high risk this could in fact go balls up.
To use a sporting phrase: Hanlong 1, Sundance nil.
Last closing: 3/10 was 42c. Opened: 4/10 46.5c. Closed: 4/10 45.5c, and even retreated further back. Ouch!
IMO ... pick a price and sell, sell, sell. I fear this will only end in tears if you dont. For if you wait 10mths you will make little, compared to what you could make elsewhere, and you run the very high risk this could in fact go balls up.
To use a sporting phrase: Hanlong 1, Sundance nil.
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Really?
It's interesting how 20% is snubbed for a 10month investment in a mad market because there is thinking that there is going to be a higher % gain doing something else. There never seems to be much clarity on what the something else is but it's there and your definitely going to nail it, aren't you!?
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Really?
It's interesting how 20% is snubbed for a 10month investment in a mad market because there is thinking that there is going to be a higher % gain doing something else. There never seems to be much clarity on what the something else is but it's there and your definitely going to nail it, aren't you!?
1. Find me a stock that has done the same? A stock, that has been bid for and closed on the 1st day after the annoucment (althought SDL is a little different in that this is a revised offer) lower than what it opened as. I would be keen to know what it was/is.
2. I'm so glad you think 10c a share for 10mths wait is a great investment. You can talk 20% all you like, its still 10c.
3. As to a higher % gain elsewhere, who cares. I am interested in money, not the % gain. It seems to fail me why so many people seem to care about the % gain. You dont bank a %, you bank the money you make. There is a difference. I have already provided an example of where that clarity is in my 1st posting. If you dont think, for example BHP will hit $44 somewhere in the next 12mths I'm happy to make a bet and make up the difference you lose by getting out of SDL and buying into BHP, at the example I provided. I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is. How about you?
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While I think the board of this company would have run SDL into the ground (no pun intended), how was there only a 10% chance of it being reached? Other than the fact I have already anwered the question.
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It's all about the percentage gain. What would you rather a profit of 12c on each one of 20,000 shares you picked up for 45c or a profit of a $1 on each one of 300 shares you picked up for $35 (which is BHP's current price)??? You would take the 20,000 * 12c any day of the week. 300 BHP shares however would cost you more than 20,000 SDL shares. At current market status I'm happy with sitting on SDL as I think we are well due for more falls elsewhere.
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It's all about the percentage gain. What would you rather a profit of 12c on each one of 20,000 shares you picked up for 45c or a profit of a $1 on each one of 300 shares you picked up for $35 (which is BHP's current price)??? You would take the 20,000 * 12c any day of the week. 300 BHP shares however would cost you more than 20,000 SDL shares. At current market status I'm happy with sitting on SDL as I think we are well due for more falls elsewhere.
Sorry, you cant compare apples with oranges. You could use that areguement on any share valued less than another. I would also add that the % gain was not about an equal amt. My example was based on actual (known - in this case SDL has an offer price if 57c) or assume (based on some analysis that BHP has a collective target of $55+, yet I assumed only half the current (at the time $33) and collective target $55) hence $44, would be reached within the period of time SDL settles next yr, some 10mths away.
Further this was intended as why SDL is a bad buy now - as I noticed someone said they brought at 46.5c yesterday and want to wait 10mths for $2000. Sorry, yet I wont be coming to you for financial advice - as opportunity gain from holding or buying into SDL at this point is not worth the opportunity gain elsewhere.
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Can you guarantee that BHP will reach $44? No. Nor am I guaranteed I will receive the offer price of 57c in 10 months. However, BHP is on a pretty hefty down trend atm as is still no where near late 2008 lows where it reached 20 even. I would rather stick my money here for now, with a LIKELY 25% gain and wait it out till things bottom out and we start seeing some strong upward movement. Rather play it safe then sorry, however your argument about oppurtunity gain enlightened me and I may even consider looking at other options in the near future, I'm not worried if the stock drops a little, as I can get out at my entry price if need be. But until we start seeing some positive signs, here it will stay.
I don't expect you to want FA from me, as I would not take FA from you, we all have our way of doing things, this seems like the right path for me.
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Sorry but I'm having trouble finding the stock code for 'Elsewhere." Can you please provide it so I can sell my SDL and buy it.
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Sorry but I'm having trouble finding the stock code for 'Elsewhere." Can you please provide it so I can sell my SDL and buy it.
Loving it.
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Sorry but I'm having trouble finding the stock code for 'Elsewhere." Can you please provide it so I can sell my SDL and buy it.
Stock code is FKU. However, possibly your dyslexia is preventing you from reading a cogent sentence. Thats OK, you keep playing SDL and making your $2000 and I will take, quite literally the many truck loads of cash I made and go buy 'elsewhere'.
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