Scalping FX with Cyrox Rainbow

[Euler]

2 more trades for 5.5 pips each

Nett of 8.5 pips for the night.

Nice trades Prawn ... and so elegant ... keep them coming.

 

[prawn_86]

Still cant get those exits right.

-1.5 for this trade (due to brokerage)

 

[prawn_86]

Long:
Didnt hold long enough
+4.5

Short:
Very happy with that, was looking for it to drop back to natural support at .50
+3.5

Total today:
+6.5 and thats me done for the day

 

[prawn_86]

Agressive +2.5

 

[prawn_86]

+4.5 but could have been heaps more. I got in a bit late and got out too early, but a profit is a profit

Total of 7 for 20 minutes so im done for the afternoon

 

[prawn_86]

Ok so heres a breakdown of my results so far.

After 40 trades:

Total wins: 25 (63%)
Total losers: 15 (37%)

Average Win: 4.64 pips
Average Loss: -3.2 pips

Total Profit: 116
Total Loss: -48
Average return per trade: +1.7 pips

Scatterplot of all 40 trades shown below.

personally i would like to get my win % up above 75%.

Would appreciate any input please...

 

[tayser]

hah, caught the same move, I can see you're taking the tory approach (nothing wrong with that!)

Time Order ID Message Event TIF Orig Trader ID
17:51:18 Sell Short 5000 EUR/JPY @ Mkt.+Trail [+Trail 0.10] on MBTX [expiring: 18/09/2008] (5000 traded at 167.23) Filled GTC
17:51:21 Buy 5000 EUR/JPY Trail 0.10 on MBTX [expiring: 18/09/2008] Cancelled GTC
17:52:59 Buy 5000 EUR/JPY @ Market on MBTX [expiring: 18/09/2008] (5000 traded at 167.17) Filled GTC

 

[prawn_86]

hah, caught the same move, I can see you're taking the tory approach (nothing wrong with that!)

I would have entered where you exited (break of support), but i was away from the screen so got in a bit late

 

[professor_frink]

Ok so heres a breakdown of my results so far.

After 40 trades:

Total wins: 25 (63%)
Total losers: 15 (37%)

Average Win: 4.64 pips
Average Loss: -3.2 pips

Total Profit: 116
Total Loss: -48
Average return per trade: +1.7 pips

Scatterplot of all 40 trades shown below.

personally i would like to get my win % up above 75%.

Would appreciate any input please...

For an impoverished uni student that is more concerned with fundamental analysis of small caps, you are doing a good job of making the rest of us traders look bad

personally I think your win rate is fine. I'd maybe work on developing a hold button so you can step on the odd winner to really cash in. overall you are doing well though

 

[prawn_86]

For an impoverished uni student that is more concerned with fundamental analysis of small caps, you are doing a good job of making the rest of us traders look bad

personally I think your win rate is fine. I'd maybe work on developing a hold button so you can step on the odd winner to really cash in. overall you are doing well though

LOL thanks Prof.

i must admit i never quite know when to exit. I think i just need to trust the rainbow a little more and keep holding as long as the price is outside of it. I just get a bit edgy and dont want to give up too much profit.

Appreciate your input

 

[professor_frink]

LOL thanks Prof.

i must admit i never quite know when to exit. I think i just need to trust the rainbow a little more and keep holding as long as the price is outside of it. I just get a bit edgy and dont want to give up too much profit.

Appreciate your input

just as long as you keep good records of what you are doing now, you'll be in a decent position to work on things down the track. As you get a larger sample size for your papertrades, you'll start to see if you are exiting too early, or too late, etc and can begin to look at makig adjustments where appropriate.

 

[prawn_86]

+5.5 net. Thats my target so im done for the week.

Starting to get the hang of this

 

[prawn_86]

personally i would like to get my win % up above 75%.

Instead of studying for exams, i have been procrastinating by studying my past trades/charts etc.

For my last 20 trades i actually only had 4 losers, so that takes my win rate to the amount i was seeking.

Now my task is to maintain this win rate...

 

[julius]

Instead of studying for exams, i have been procrastinating by studying my past trades/charts etc.

For my last 20 trades i actually only had 4 losers, so that takes my win rate to the amount i was seeking.

Now my task is to maintain this win rate...

Hi Prawn,

Here's another way you can approach it:

A win loss ratio of 4.64/-3.2 equates to a risk:reward of 1.45:1. At 63% winners, you can expect to earn 1.74 pips per trade, or 54 percent of every dollar risked.

Given the R:R of 1.45, you need to maintain a win rate of atleast ~41% in order to breakeven, not including transaction costs.

Personally I think you want to rely on your accuracy as little as possible - this means emphasizing the risk:reward pattern over the %winners.

If you want to develop a reasonable estimate of winning percent then you need a much larger sample than 40 or 50 trades, and I would say over an extended period of time (weeks/months) because the accuracy of any method or system is going to fluctuate with market conditions.

That way you have an idea when the method isn't in tune with the market and what you can expect.

 

[prawn_86]

Hi Prawn,

Here's another way you can approach it:

A win loss ratio of 4.64/-3.2 equates to a risk:reward of 1.45:1. At 63% winners, you can expect to earn 1.74 pips per trade, or 54 percent of every dollar risked

Given the R:R of 1.45, you need to maintain a win rate of atleast ~41% in order to breakeven, not including transaction costs.

Thanks for this Julius, that makes sense.

All my profits i post here, and record are net, so the transaction cost issue does not matter in this case.

Personally I think you want to rely on your accuracy as little as possible - this means emphasizing the risk:reward pattern over the %winners.

Any ideas of how to recognise the higher R:R patterns?
From what i have gathered so far, scalping (due to its ultra short term nature) is just about picking up quick pips here and there. Its hard (for me at least) to identify which moves will be bigger than others.

If you want to develop a reasonable estimate of winning percent then you need a much larger sample than 40 or 50 trades, and I would say over an extended period of time (weeks/months) because the accuracy of any method or system is going to fluctuate with market conditions.

That way you have an idea when the method isn't in tune with the market and what you can expect.

I totally agree here. Im not in any rush to go live and would like well over 100 trades before i consider doing so.

Having said that however, if im only executing 1 or 2 trades a day and getting my target (5 pips), its going to take quite some time to get a decent sample up. For example, i only had 8 trades last week with 7 winners and one loser, for a total of 30 pips. So to get another 100 trades or so will take a few months at least.

Thanks for your input, i appreciate it

 

[julius]

All my profits i post here, and record are net, so the transaction cost issue does not matter in this case.

Any ideas of how to recognise the higher R:R patterns?
From what i have gathered so far, scalping (due to its ultra short term nature) is just about picking up quick pips here and there. Its hard (for me at least) to identify which moves will be bigger than others.

I totally agree here. Im not in any rush to go live and would like well over 100 trades before i consider doing so.

Having said that however, if im only executing 1 or 2 trades a day and getting my target (5 pips), its going to take quite some time to get a decent sample up. For example, i only had 8 trades last week with 7 winners and one loser, for a total of 30 pips. So to get another 100 trades or so will take a few months at least.

Thanks for your input, i appreciate it

Prawn,

In my opinion transaction costs are worth considering in this case because they represent a significant portion of net profits. Brokerage and slippage have much more of an impact on a scalper than they do a swing or position trader.

As for the R:R - I always work out the stop level first then filter out trades that are less than 2:1. You can also look at average volatility to get a similiar estimate.

Beyond that it's mostly about how you choose to manage the trade - managing a position is always going to have a push/pull effect on R:R and Win%.

Wider stops will increase w%, but decrease R:R. Tight stops will do the opposite. Profit targets increase w%, decrease R:R. Wide trailing stops will give bigger trends, but give back more profits, etc...

 

[prawn_86]

I cant say i evaluate my R:R before i enter a trade. Most of the time there isnt really time, its just press the button when I see everything lining up.

I run relatively tight stops, depending on how fast the market is, of between 2 - 5 pips. So it looks to me that most of my trades have a R:R of 1:1.

As i said bfore, i dont know how to pick those moves that will be bigger than others, so i wouldnt know when there is a 2:1 opportunity.

I would like to hear from other scalpers as what sort of R:R they are using?


The stop levels above will keep me within the 2% rule however, as i will only be trading very small lots (or part lots) when i do go live.

 

[tayser]

I don't bother calculating r:r for each individual trade either, but you can have an idea of what it's likely going to be if you hit your targets.

Identifying bigger moves come with lots and lots of screen time + support/resistance (short and long term) basics.

In navigator, for the trailing stop settings, you can set either a fixed pip amount or percentage of account balance risk - try using market + trailing stops when you trade. When you want to close a position, always remember to firstly cancel the trailing stop order and then close.

 

[caribean]

Question from a friend who's interested, can he get a longer term ninjatrader demo with any broker feed (idealy EFX), your replies appreciated.

 

[tayser]

MB Trading demos dont expire (The account) - the balance is just reset on the 15th of each month.