SBM - St Barbara Limited

[kbxk508]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I only skim read the news release but thought it said closing down for the moment one of the mines which is producing about 50% of its gold.

They will cease open pit mining of small, low grade deposits at Southern Cross by the end of July 2009 but will continue with the Marvel Loch underground mine for their Southern Cross operations and are targeting 110-130 koz at 840-930 A$/oz in FY10 down from 155-160 koz in FY09, ... , with a stronger emphasis on lower-cost, higher margin gold production.

You can't look back - the strategy of more gold production is being replaced with a stronger emphasis on lower-cost, higher margin gold production - the new CEO has been in the job a short time and needs time to deliver along with sufficient funds to meet FY10 obligations (probabaly A$m 60-100) and/or a higher Aus Gold price (wouldn't hurt).

All attainable in my opinion.

There are no ridiculous projections in the three year plan and all seems reasonable, realistic to me and is supported by the Jun09 Half production 134koz which was within guidance 130-135 koz.

Note: Gwalia is a massive Resource with enormous potential as reflected in the Jun09 Half results - 27.9koz at $434 per ounce at 7.2 g/t and 96% recovery in May/June alone.

Gold is in demand and will continue to be in demand - no need to panic.

I hold this stock and will look to add in the coming weeks/months at current and/or lower prices, cheers

kbxk508

 

[Sean K]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

You can't look back

Can't look back? You don't think analysing how a company has performed and what it's resource base has produced has any merit?

There are no ridiculous projections in the three year plan

I agree that the NEW three year plan is more reasonable, but I wouldn't give them the benefit of any doubt in achieving it. It's a wait and see I think.

They are now plucking 500k oz pa by 2014 which seems lofty, and there doen't seem to be much backing that up. Still, a lot different to 1m oz by 2010!

I am not surprised part of the plan is growth by strategic acquisitions. Obviously they can't make this work, so they need to buy some working assets to bump the numbers up.

Good luck, I hope this new guy turns it around for you, and they start meeting these projections.

Are you happy with the assumptions for the 3 year plan? I've highlighted my concerns/risks.

Three Year Business Plan – Core Assumptions
1. The gold price assumption used to calculate gold revenues is A$1,200 per ounce throughout the three year period.
2. Gwalia annual production is based on a mine plan and reserves reported at 30 June 2008, modified only in areas of grade control drilling.
3. Southern Cross production is based on a mine plan. Production in FY10 and FY11 is substantially based on reserves reported at 30 June 2008, modified only in areas of grade control drilling. Production in FY12 is expected to come from existing resources conversion to reserves, supported by the extensional drilling program budgeted in FY10.
4. The Leonora and Southern Cross processing plants to operate on a campaign basis throughout the three year plan; Southern Cross plant to move to campaign milling in September 2009. The Leonora plant has been operating on a campaign basis since early March 2009.
5. Average plant recovery at Leonora is planned at 95% during the three year period, with the current average recovery percentage exceeding the business plan assumption. At Southern Cross the budgeted average recovery in FY10 is 89%, and this is planned to increase to 92% in FY11 and FY12 based on the ore source being Marvel Loch only.
6. Operating costs in the three year plan are based on current contracts, existing market conditions and knowledge of the operations. Operating costs have not been escalated for inflation during the three year period.
7. Cash operating cost per ounce represents the cash cost for production using the principles set out in the Gold Institute Production Cost Standard.
8. Capital expenditure estimates in relation to mine development are based on physical development scheduled in the mine plans and mining rates set out in mining contracts current throughout the three year period.
9. Capital expenditure estimates in relation to the processing plants and mine infrastructure are based on current costs and experience with the anticipated work to be completed for each capital initiative.
10. Funding required for the June 2010 Quarter is secured.
11. All financial data included in this announcement is still subject to financial year end audit.

 

[sydneysider]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

HUH?

Nice idea. I'm going to go out and purposefully buy a stock to make my portfolio more risky. Sounds useful! LOL

They tried to paint a fluffy picture in the strategic review but had to admit:


So more dilution to come.

What's the go with the issue of option to the CEO?



For what? Taking the company to a fresh lows?

Those 200m shares issued at 41c were a good pick up.

Cash costs still around $1000 is the killer.

The only way to play this is to trade it. And the only way to make any money that way would have been shorting it.

Continues to set low targets and fails to achieve them.

Technicals look like a falling knife, especially when volume follows trend down. Many spec stocks have rolled over. Interesting to note the struggle that is underway between the US$ and gold. It is very unfashionable to say this but the US$ may be in the early days of a decent rally. It currently sits on a 50 day moving average trendline IF it breaks up to higher levels may hurt stocks like SBM.

 

[eddyeagle]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I originally bought this as a Fat Prophets recommendation back in mid 2007. They have stuck with it until now but finally put a SELL on it yesterday!

 

[jman2007]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I originally bought this as a Fat Prophets recommendation back in mid 2007. They have stuck with it until now but finally put a SELL on it yesterday!

That's a shame eddy, hope you managed to salvage some of your initial investment from this stock, and have more luck with your next gold stock

 

[king1978]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Hi,

Last I heard, Fast Eddy (former CEO) was still with the company (as a consultant?)

Is he still there?
If yes, does anyone know in what capacity? (e.g. full-time consultant working directly with the CEO, or 1 day a week and available for a phone call only)?

Thanks

 

[Miner]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I originally bought this as a Fat Prophets recommendation back in mid 2007. They have stuck with it until now but finally put a SELL on it yesterday!

Very Interesting to know it

Charlie Atkins at Eureka Report has recommended to buy St Barbara SBM
For those who do not know Charlie he was the one man show to predict FMG price to be more than $50 when it was only $8.

I am not suggesting if FP or Charlie was ramping SBM but I always take them as brokers with vested interest to manipulate market. DYOR and DNH

 

[explod]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I originally bought this as a Fat Prophets recommendation back in mid 2007. They have stuck with it until now but finally put a SELL on it yesterday!

Well now, must give it some serious consideration to get a few.

cheers explod


But have been wrong before so DYOR

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Gwalia Deeps has had a question mark over it as Sons of Gwalia failed to get the mine going. SBM are getting over the problem with shafts from other mines. A long high risk project this, though providing money can still be found it should come good in the end - question is whether shareholders will have that much in the end with all the borrowing and extra shares issued.

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Hannans Reward Ltd., has made a conditional agreement with St Barbara and Kagara Ltd for the Forrestania Nickel Project: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090730/pdf/31jt6dnycp4d6k.pdf

 

[baroosh]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

hello i have had a parcel of 500 st barbara shares since 1981 i paid 20cents a share they havnt done much since then should i sell them or wait another 3o years i reckon st barbara have spent more on posting me letters and brochures than the total amount of my shares any advice please

 

[Sean K]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

hello i have had a parcel of 500 st barbara shares since 1981 i paid 20cents a share they havnt done much since then should i sell them or wait another 3o years i reckon st barbara have spent more on posting me letters and brochures than the total amount of my shares any advice please

LOL. Maybe you should start recycling all the annual reports and you will earn some money out of them. Do you have a desperate need for $70 after brokerage? Not supposed to give financial advice here, so you need to make up your own mind. Since 1981?

 

[Motogoon]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

hello i have had a parcel of 500 st barbara shares since 1981 i paid 20cents a share they havnt done much since then should i sell them or wait another 3o years i reckon st barbara have spent more on posting me letters and brochures than the total amount of my shares any advice please

Dude, why didn't you sell them when they were up over 2 bucks in the 90's, would've been a nice 1000 percent profit!

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

The 20% rise in the price of St Barbara stock to 27c and over 40 million shares being traded, suddenly brings back excitement in the stock. Over the years SBM have never failed to dramatically surprise at times and with gold stocks very strong, these could well prove to be dirt cheap, though speculative, in the sector.

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Leonora, Western Australia, the area that includes the Gwalia Deeps mine and the big future for St Barbara: http://www.stbarbara.com.au/our-operations/leonora/

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Heavy trading continued on Friday with over 30 million shares going through. SBM are certainly now in the spotlights for recovery in the ever strengthening gold sector.

 

[Deadcat]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Hey Noirua, thought I would post so it doesn't seem that you keep posting to yourself

I have noticed the amount of trades on this stock recently as well. In the past this stock has really given me the poops but am considering a punt. Will see what happens on Monday.

Are you in at the moment?

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Hey Noirua, thought I would post so it doesn't seem that you keep posting to yourself

I have noticed the amount of trades on this stock recently as well. In the past this stock has really given me the poops but am considering a punt. Will see what happens on Monday.

Are you in at the moment?

Yes Deadcat, I have a holding which represented about 40% of my original purchases which I failed to sell at much higher prices - purchased at 40c a share. Added some at an average of 24c a share from sale of my coal stocks - one punt to another.

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Starting to bounce along now as the gold stock near everyone dumped is coming back to the fore. Not sure how they managed to plummet quite so low but now looking good on the back of the gold price and the now less conspicuous borrowings - 27c close today.

 

[ptony1948]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Still very wary of this stock. Was called a "dog" in past posts and that's exactly how I felt at the time too. I'd bought at 25, saw it go up to 42 and then plummet back down to 18. Here's my chance again to exit with profit. But , as before, human nature says "get as much as you can", and there's the dilemma. Don't want to miss out/don't want to lose out. I still don't like this stock and once out that will be it.