SBM - St Barbara Limited

[Paladin]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I dont have charts, but watching this and i reckon this has become a Dtrader stock.......ranging is over a few cents and has been for some time with some decent orders. Looks like peeps are trading a couple of ticks (half cents). Any thoughts??

Hey FG.

Yeah - some good intraday trading to be had on this stock, and some good in and out trading recently between the .18 and .24 marks, but volatility is easing and a floor appears to have been found at around the current sp with limited downside at the moment and quite some upside potential short term.

I'm in with a moderate parcel at .20 average now. I have additional buys placed if it hits .23 with decent volume.

Some good informal news out of Gwalia recently. As most know Ed has been on the ground there for a while, hence his not appearing at the D&D conference. Delays at Gwalia appear to have been caught up with. Word is that they're crushing ore there at the moment and are basically ready for commissioning. Keep a close eye on the SP and look for company announcements, as there may be some (very) good news on the horizon.

These are, of course, rumours and value them accordingly, but we could be ready for a spike sooner rather than later.

 

[Paladin]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Just to add to the above post. I've re-read it today, and realised it may well come off as ramping.

So to present a flip-side, other factors that are not to be discounted with this stock are:

1. Mr market hates it. The company has made such terrible mistakes with the recent raising and so on that I suspect any bad news will be reacted to and punished swiftly.

2. There's a large overhang there with Macquarie. They've obviously been left holding a very big bag here, and while the chances of them liquidating on-market would seem low (simply because that now they're such a big holder it would be very against their interest to hammer the SP down) the chances of them wanting to recoup their investment are doubtless high. There's a real chance that any rallies with this stock will be sold into heavily by investors large and small.

What I did feel I have done wrong in the above post is reveal infromation that is unsubstantiated and off-market. So please do treat it accordingly. Any and all of my assumptions could well be wrong.

Good one to have on a watchlist, though. And a good one to learn the intraday patterns of if you're into DT.

Have a lovely weekend all.

 

[explod]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

2. There's a large overhang there with Macquarie. They've obviously been left holding a very big bag here, and while the chances of them liquidating on-market would seem low (simply because that now they're such a big holder it would be very against their interest to hammer the SP down) the chances of them wanting to recoup their investment are doubtless high. There's a real chance that any rallies with this stock will be sold into heavily by investors large and small.

Have a lovely weekend all.

I notice that every time the sell side gets down to a few hundred thousand someone drops a further million. Wonder if Mq are having margin problems and have to let go. Of course big numbers began buying as it went at .25 and again (as I did) at .20 and it has been sideways since.

I can find not a whisper (apart from the dilution from share issue) that can give any belief other than this will have great upside when gold resumes its run.

Do we have other takes?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Explod, the dilution issue has been addressed/neutralised with the increased reserve calcs? In fact, there is no dilution but a net gain in reserves per share.

Just updated my spreadsheet and with the worst case figures for cash costs being $800/oz, 3Moz reserves, the current projects amount to approx 35c per share. Assuming production does actually get up to the 300koz mark this year, this $150 margin should generate cash of $45m!

Looks like it's basing around 20c with the occasional thrust upwards to test the waters. Nearly anyone who bought within the last 2 years would be under so the overhang in this climate will be considerable, but not insurmountable with the passage of time. Just have to see how many shares Ed still has to dump to get out of his margin call??? At least he must have seen some potential to margin in with shares, until this corporate play dumped him in the s*it. Takeover potential?

 

[Paladin]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Explod, the dilution issue has been addressed/neutralised with the increased reserve calcs? In fact, there is no dilution but a net gain in reserves per share.

Just updated my spreadsheet and with the worst case figures for cash costs being $800/oz, 3Moz reserves, the current projects amount to approx 35c per share. Assuming production does actually get up to the 300koz mark this year, this $150 margin should generate cash of $45m!

Looks like it's basing around 20c with the occasional thrust upwards to test the waters. Nearly anyone who bought within the last 2 years would be under so the overhang in this climate will be considerable, but not insurmountable with the passage of time. Just have to see how many shares Ed still has to dump to get out of his margin call??? At least he must have seen some potential to margin in with shares, until this corporate play dumped him in the s*it. Takeover potential?

Hey unc. I reckon Ed is probably all done with the selling? Could be wrong. And I'm sure margining in made sense at the time, with the SP well over 3x what it is now. Not sure he'd be that optimistic these days, though. You make a great point about other holders, though. It's almost certain that any show of strength will be heavily sold into, either by opportunists like me who are in at current prices, or by longer term holders just wanting to recoup a best-case exit on their losses.

I would put recent selling down to just that rather than Mac. If Mac needed out, then I think they'd arrange parcels off-market. It would just be too devestating to their own interests to do it on market.

Here's hoping there's some +ve news out of Gwalia soon. From what I understand the delays have been addressed, but the SP could plummet again on any bad news, however minor.

As for takeovers, I can't see NCM going that way as an example. And I reckon there would be some other, less problematic, juniors who might make for a better bet. As they stand now, I would think that the SBM assets are just too high-cost in terms of production to be terribly attractive, unless the POG does something remarkable. It's possible, of course, but who knows how probable.

 

[nick2fish]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

It's almost certain that any show of strength will be heavily sold into, either by opportunists like me who are in at current prices, or by longer term holders just wanting to recoup a best-case exit on their losses.

Thats the key point that will hold SBM down in the oversold category for quite some time yet.
On what I can see and have heard I'm holding long
On Gwalia they are almost there and the grade improvement will lower the overall mining costs.
Underground development is hugely expensive in so far as infrastructure,support and ventilation but thats behind them now.
I can't see a problem with this one but I keep checking this thread by the hour. I'm out on a limb and very nervous

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Gwalia commissioning is proceeding to plan: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080917/pdf/31cbtyc116Vy7f.pdf

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Some interesting, some would say spectacular, grades from Tower & sale of the puts puts $25m in the coffers - anybody smell value yet?

Sale of Put Options
In early 2007, the Company purchased (at a cost of $8 million)
1,328,400 A$700 per ounce put options with maturity periods ranging
from July 2008 to April 2017 in order to secure the investment
decision to proceed with re‐developing the Gwalia mine.
The mine development to this stage and associated surface
infrastructure works are now substantially complete. Following a
review of the operation, the Company’s decision to sell all of these
options in current market conditions has realised proceeds of
approximately $25 million. These funds will further strengthen the
Company’s cash position.

 

[jman2007]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Some interesting, some would say spectacular, grades from Tower & sale of the puts puts $25m in the coffers - anybody smell value yet?

It's all about the depth mate,

Most of those intersections are around 250m downhole depth or more, and if you're hinting at an undeground scenario then this would barely hang together based on those grades. Interesting yes, and definitely worth follow-up drilling, but 20m@ 10g/t from 150m would be the money shot.

jman

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I decided to add to my holding seeing that Gwalia "very" Deeps appears to be going along well now. No forward selling makes this one more of a pure gold price play.

As far as I'm concerned they're very ... and very much a ... at these prices.

 

[eddyeagle]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Loving the 20% jump today on SBM! It's about time gold stocks rallied given the current global crisis!

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Loving the 20% jump today on SBM! It's about time gold stocks rallied given the current global crisis!

Yes indeed, what a jump, confidence suddenly flying high.
Rubicon signing of joint venture on the Rockdam joint venture is a good one as well.

 

[noirua]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Quite a change in the fortunes of St Barbara Mining, up 60% in a couple of weeks.
Gwalia Deeps proved very difficult and shows what problems Sons of Gwalia once had.
So it looks like an improving situation.

 

[solomon]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I noticed (when I was looking today) that the market depth profile had changed. By profile I mean, over the last 9 months (maybe more) whenever SBM approached the upper end of the days trading range (usually about 2-3cents) someone(s) would add approx a 500,000 sell order, the same thing was happening on the downside.

But today that didn't seem to happen, was it the absence of the traders that rely on short selling? Or was it just a change in sentiment? or both?

 

[explod]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I noticed (when I was looking today) that the market depth profile had changed. By profile I mean, over the last 9 months (maybe more) whenever SBM approached the upper end of the days trading range (usually about 2-3cents) someone(s) would add approx a 500,000 sell order, the same thing was happening on the downside.

But today that didn't seem to happen, was it the absence of the traders that rely on short selling? Or was it just a change in sentiment? or both?

I noticed, and just confirmed by looking at the day chart that a big player moved in and purchased about 9 million shares between 2.30 and 3pm. I think the late trader retarder who I have watched too has been washed away. SBM will return to true value very quickly from here in my view. I would say 60 to 70 cents and back to 90 when US gold goes to a new weekly high.

I own shares in the company and have been wrong in my assessments many times.

 

[eddyeagle]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I noticed, and just confirmed by looking at the day chart that a big player moved in and purchased about 9 million shares between 2.30 and 3pm. I think the late trader retarder who I have watched too has been washed away. SBM will return to true value very quickly from here in my view. I would say 60 to 70 cents and back to 90 when US gold goes to a new weekly high.

I own shares in the company and have been wrong in my assessments many times.

Nice disclaimer!

Lets hope for all shareholders it gets back up to those levels as soon as possible!

 

[Paladin]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Well, it's been an interesting week that's for sure. 35c with a bullet. There have definately been some big plays recently. Imagine how Ed must feel having to dump all his shares at the prices he got for them. Still, as a recipient, not complaining too much.

There was quite a bit of resistance at the .33 mark but it seems to have been pierced with not too much hastle. As (or perhaps, more cautiously, if) we get closer to .40 I should expect turbulence to increase.

It's a worry that the company seems to be burning through cash so quickly. That said, looks like the market has finally lost its shyness around this stock. So long as no more capital is needed, and so long as the POG holds at $800 plus then I do see more upside here.

Well done to all holders. It was hairy there for a while!

 

[solomon]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

This chart is a bit interesting, showing that before the capital raising SBM essentially mirrored NCM. SBM seems to have recoupled, so to speak, but still lags considerably behind. That is it hasn't caught up the lost ground.



Could there be even further upside with SBM, i.e. might we see it close the gap to NCM?

 

[solomon]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Well someone is listening or thinking in the same kind of way SBM up today, and closing the gap, with NCM slightly down. Check out the 1 month comparison. SBM is the black line in this graph.


I also noticed today early on and then again later that someone put the 1 million sell side play on to try and cap the up (or put downward pressure on). Both the times I saw it, a buyer came in and just smashed it, taking out the whole order. Another nice day with SBM closing up 7%.

Lets bring on 40c and then 50c explod.

 

[eddyeagle]

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

That chart against NCM is interesting - shows how much SBM was smashed!
Another solid day today.
Did anyone on this forum have the balls to buy/top up a few weeks ago at 19-20c? Well done if you did!
Fat Prophets yesterday advised to get in around 30 cents...