SBM - St Barbara Limited

cuttlefish · 26 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

nick2fish said:
I know for a fact that there is not too many producing gold miners who are trading @ less than 0.30. (And I own them both)

There's more than two producers trading below .30c but price isn't important ayway, market cap is. (market cap vs current and future profitability is what is most important).

Uncle Festivus · 26 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

dizzy said:
Notice of a Director's SALES today

11M shares sold 21, 22, 23rd July

Average price 26cents

Quote from announcement:

"Mr Eshuys informed the Company that he sold 11 million shares on-market on 21, 22 and 23 July 2008 following a rearrangement of his margin
lending facility."

Interesting . . .

The irony of the margin call - forced to sell at the absolute bottom, then watch as the price rebounds. Some corporate skull duggery going on?

Fridays closing bid/ask volume ratio

206 buyers for 8,498,260 units 132 sellers for 3,851,677 units

Generally, another body blow for the money shufflers gives hard assets the disconnective edge. When will gold equities de-couple from the rest? LGL looking tasty again?

kbxk508 · 27 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

SBM Stats (current)

EV per Ounce (Resource): 38.6 A$/oz
Market Cap: 406 A$m
Reserve: 3.07Moz
Resource: 10.56Moz
Cash & Investments: 120 A$m
Liabilities: 171.6 A$m
Put Options: 34.6 A$m market to market (30/6)
Total Cost per Ounce: 632 A$ (if cash cost is 560 A$/oz)

There are 7 other gold producers (KCN, RSG, AVO, CGX, MDL, DOM and AXM) with a Market Cap between 250 and 550 A$m including SBM with an Average EV per Ounce (Resource) 129.3 A$/oz.

Of these RSG has the highest cash cost 674 A$/oz with EV 55.4 A$/oz. Next highest are SBM and AXM whose EV is 77.5 A$/oz.

When SBMs price touched 24.5c its EV was a low 30.4 A$/oz and this for a company that is aiming to produce 300koz in 08/09 - amazing.

kenny · 27 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

How open is the register for SBM? I noticed it has about 1.3 billion shares with another 13.6 million listed options.

SBM is still unhedged isn't it?

kbxk508,

Thanks for the summary. How did you come to that cash operating cost? I vaguely recall the last quarterly saying the FY08 COS was closer to $555/oz.

Cheers,

Kenny

kbxk508 · 27 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

kenny said:
How open is the register for SBM? I noticed it has about 1.3 billion shares with another 13.6 million listed options.

SBM is still unhedged isn't it?

kbxk508,

Thanks for the summary. How did you come to that cash operating cost? I vaguely recall the last quarterly saying the FY08 COS was closer to $555/oz.

Cheers,

Kenny

Hi Kenny,

Total Cost per Ounce (TCO) = (EV + Development Costs)/Mineable Ounces + Cash Cost per Ounce of Production

EV = Market Cap - Financial Assets* + Debt/Liabilitites = 401.7 A$m
Development Costs = 136.5 A$m, i.e. 126.5 A$m for Gwalia and 10 A$m for Southern Cross (re: Prospectus)
Mineable Oz = 100% of Reserve + 60% of (Resource - Reserve)

* Financial Assets: Cash (June Qtr), Investments: 49.534m BDG shrs, Put Options market to market (June Qtr), Inventories (Dec Half), Trade Receivables (Dec Half).

Note: I chose not to include property, plant & equipment, exploration & evaluation and deferred mining assets in my calculations. Had I included these in the calculation then EV is 221.7 A$m and EV/oz (Resource) is 21.0 A$/oz.

kbxk508

oldblue · 28 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Macquarie Equities have an "Outperform" on SBM with a target price of 60c after "coming off research restrictions".
I guess that means that they were involved in the recent capital raising.

DYOR

kenny · 28 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Thanks kbxk508,

I must have been reading just the Cost of Production in the Quarterly. Good to have you incorporate the Dev costs and EV.

Oldblue,

Macquarie Capital were the underwriters for the recently completed 2 for 7 entitlement offer. They had to pick up the 123.5 million share shortfall. The funds were for Gwalia, Southern Cross projects and the usual "working capital requirements".

Cheers,

Kenny

dizzy · 28 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Broker Target Prices:

Out of four brokers who cover SBM (but there could be others) two had it as a HOLD, and two a BUY (as at 23rd July).

Their target prices ranged from 30 cents to $1.20

The average of the target prices was 84 cents.

(Source: Australian Super Stock Report)

Onvil · 29 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Can anyone shed any light re: broker target prices. ie when they have a target price of $X, do they indicate when they expect this to occur?

dizzy · 29 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Onvil said:
Can anyone shed any light re: broker target prices. ie when they have a target price of $X, do they indicate when they expect this to occur?

I'm assuming they are 12-month targets but I haven't seen it written down - perhaps this could be confirmed (or otherwise) by someone who knows for sure.

Uncle Festivus · 29 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Targets are ephemeral in this climate, as no matter how good the underlying fundamentals are, if someone or the market generally has an agenda then not much will stand in their way. It has to be especially good news to sway this market?

It looks as if there is some unfinished portfolio re-adjustments still going on today with some suspiciously large and pronounced sell orders taking the bidders out. (Ed, is that you?)

Normally after this type of rebound there is some sort of counter selling but not back to previous lows if the first rally was genuine, so looking for a double bottom of sorts? Maybe 28c to test support, any techo's care/brave enough to comment?

oldblue · 29 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

dizzy said:
I'm assuming they are 12-month targets but I haven't seen it written down - perhaps this could be confirmed (or otherwise) by someone who knows for sure.

Macquarie Equities, for one, express theirs as " 12 month targets". Don't know about anyone else but it would seem reasonable to assume unless specified otherwise.

lsj84 · 30 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Duetsch bank gave the latest target price at 0.3. Goldman gave at 0.6+, other smaller ones all gave 0.6 or above i remember. source: blommberg terminal

kbxk508 · 31 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

GoHardHomie said:
Anyone able to shed light on a row in Table 5: Cash operating Costs (page 4) in the June Quarterly Report?

The one i don't understand is the 'Cost of Sales Adjustments' for 153? It brings the cash costs down from $799 to $646

Cheers

Cost of Sales Adjustment = Revenue other than that through Gold Sales, i.e. Silver and Base Metals Sales, Inventories, Bank Interest, Realised gain on gold derivatives etc.

e.g. in FY2007 this was 24.5 A$m on 171.2 koz or 143 A$/oz which is in line with what they quote every qtr. Just my opinion. Cheers.

kbxk508

Uncle Festivus · 31 July 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

It's not finished yet comrades, going by the multiple 500k lot SELL orders lined up, hitting 28c this morn. Although the other side of the equation is - who is buying up??? A bit more "sell soaking" to go yet, hopefully to line up with the cyclical gold bull breakout August/September? Note to SBM directors - don't buy on margin if you can't cover it!!!!

Edit:someone playing silly buggers now, big orders pulled? Market manipulation/capping?

MRC & Co · 1 August 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Uncle Festivus said:
Edit:someone playing silly buggers now, big orders pulled? Market manipulation/capping?

Yep, it's why you can really only take what goes to market. A little bit of a scare/or joy and big orders in the cue can evaporate mighty quickly without ever hitting the market.

I'm watching closely for a set-up, accumulation taking place by the looks.

Onvil · 4 August 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Is anyone aware when Gwalia will actually commence production. SBM continually state the Sept qtr, but given we're now in August, sure they could be a bit more specific.

Uncle Festivus · 4 August 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Onvil said:
Is anyone aware when Gwalia will actually commence production. SBM continually state the Sept qtr, but given we're now in August, sure they could be a bit more specific.

Eshuys interview on SBM website -

Feasibility study projections of a modest contribution to production from Gwalia Deeps in the
September quarter, a more meaningful one in the December quarter, and 95,000oz for FY09,

were on track, he said.

Still looking for the double bottom to form around these levels.

Family_Guy · 4 August 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

I bought these at 25 2 weeks ago and sold when i made my goal of a 10% ,full profit in a couple of days. I'm very happy to jump back on at these prices and have bought again at 26 and placed at 25 and 24, just incase. I've even dipped into the extra funds for these. Bring it, biarch!!

Only, this time i will break my goals set out and hold.........so my warning is not to buy , as i will break my goal i'm bound to fail.

Please do not follow what i do, i just got karma'd.

Uncle Festivus · 5 August 2008

Re: SBM - St. Barbara Mines

Doh, looks like Ed has been margined again, 3 big parcels gone through this arvo dropping the price to 21c. I can see the picture in the real estate window - For Sale, a gold mine with $120m cash, 300kozs per year gold production, 10moz resources. Some corporate raiders circling now??

SBM - St Barbara Limited

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