G'Day Kenny,
It’s all speculation - But my business case works best if I do a 20/80 CAPEX split... Minimal dilution and manageable debt that can be paid over 8yrs.
So I assume CAPEX at $150m...
20,000,000 x 150c = $30m + $120,00,000 Debt. = $150,000,000.
They may have to do a second cap. raising later if they choose less debt option. But this is less optimal in my opinion (Or shareholder p-o-v).
Shaw say $80m at 120... That means RWD has to issue 67m extra shares. The less dilution we get, the better obviously.
Here is the latest revision of my DCF:
-------------------------------------
-= 10yr DCF =-
-------------------------------------
Prod. Ramp (200x2yr, 300x3yr, 400x5yr)
Avg Price per ton $500
Avg Cost per ton $220
CAPEX 150m (20% eq / 80% De)
Debt Paid off in 8yrs (Avg $18m p/yr)
95m Shares w/future full dilution
EBT Avg: $73m p/yr
Free Cash Flow Avg: $50m p/yr
Fair Value: MC $683,142,955, SP $7.22, f-PE 9
NPV 10%: MCap $315,792,140.09, SP $3.34, f-PE 4
And maybe Avg 30c p/yr dividend if we are lucky
-------------------------------------
I have attached an extract from Shaws for comparison sake:
http://www.rewardminerals.com/index.php?option=com_remository&Itemid=3&func=startdown&id=109
Notable Difference is I ramp to 400ktpa, Shaw only ramp to 200ktpa.
Cheers,
Pat
It’s all speculation - But my business case works best if I do a 20/80 CAPEX split... Minimal dilution and manageable debt that can be paid over 8yrs.
So I assume CAPEX at $150m...
20,000,000 x 150c = $30m + $120,00,000 Debt. = $150,000,000.
They may have to do a second cap. raising later if they choose less debt option. But this is less optimal in my opinion (Or shareholder p-o-v).
Shaw say $80m at 120... That means RWD has to issue 67m extra shares. The less dilution we get, the better obviously.
Here is the latest revision of my DCF:
-------------------------------------
-= 10yr DCF =-
-------------------------------------
Prod. Ramp (200x2yr, 300x3yr, 400x5yr)
Avg Price per ton $500
Avg Cost per ton $220
CAPEX 150m (20% eq / 80% De)
Debt Paid off in 8yrs (Avg $18m p/yr)
95m Shares w/future full dilution
EBT Avg: $73m p/yr
Free Cash Flow Avg: $50m p/yr
Fair Value: MC $683,142,955, SP $7.22, f-PE 9
NPV 10%: MCap $315,792,140.09, SP $3.34, f-PE 4
And maybe Avg 30c p/yr dividend if we are lucky
-------------------------------------
I have attached an extract from Shaws for comparison sake:
http://www.rewardminerals.com/index.php?option=com_remository&Itemid=3&func=startdown&id=109
Notable Difference is I ramp to 400ktpa, Shaw only ramp to 200ktpa.
Cheers,
Pat