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RWD - Reward Minerals

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Bruce.

Corrections come in 3 waves.
We have 1 and 2 is in progress.
Not expecting this to reach $2 before reversing again.
The higher this goes before reversing the more likely it is to range.
I expect the low of $1.55 to be taken out.
Its actually a doji.
Low volume indicates a lack of commitment from buyers.
As does the lack of range in the bar.

This may well reach $3 but currently there is no indication technically.
It needs to complete this wave 4 correction.
 
Not only do I agree that technically its weaker then I'd like (would have liked a better shaped candle and with volume), I personally don't think it will go to above 2buc on the fundamentals... Cap Raising hangs over.

No way on the planet can you value this business at 1.50... But short term technicals point to it going down again... This is as bigger 'no brainer' as I've seen.

All a drop in price means to me is an opportunity to buy more.

Short term 25% seems like bad business to you - 25% long term is buying opportunity for me. Not buying is bad business in my opinion as a buy on the retrace equals multiples within my longer term target.

Appreciate your opinion on the technicals. And I do invite the practical analysis if you want to share it. I'm not in a competition, I just don't like criticism without discussion.

Cheers,
Pat
 
Any guess on what it will reach in this correction? I bought in again today at 1.85, want to make a small profit, and then buy in again if it decides to reverse.
 
Dangerous game Adamim... I would have waited for todays candle to confirm the reversal, then bought tomorrow (If i was short term).

IMO - It looks like a dead-cat bounce... I don't see it going below 165c... Until it goes past 165c LoL... Then maybe 140c is my target zone... But if it closes the gap tomorrow/Thursday and moves up with volume then i'd say its a reversal...

I'm not in the business of predicting bottoms, or tops... I predict business value and then buy dips that reach the support zones...

I have almost no intention to sell RWD... EVER!

Good Luck.
Pat
 
pattyp said:
Dangerous game Adamim... I would have waited for todays candle to confirm the reversal, then bought tomorrow (If i was short term).

IMO - It looks like a dead-cat bounce... I don't see it going below 165c... Until it goes past 165c LoL... Then maybe 140c is my target zone... But if it closes the gap tomorrow/Thursday and moves up with volume then i'd say its a reversal...

I'm not in the business of predicting bottoms, or tops... I predict business value and then buy dips that reach the support zones...

I have almost no intention to sell RWD... EVER!

Good Luck.
Pat
Click to expand...

Thats what i was thinking. I mean i'm not too worried as i eventually see this going a lot higher. But if it goes down further i guess I'll just wait it out. ****ty thing is I wil be working without a computer tomorrow. I guess I'll get my missus to do the work.
 
Glad to see this one up again today... But in all honesty its making me nervous...

Very interested to see the close, I expect it to be sold off.

All the same, at this point, my 163c buy is looking very good!

Pat
 
Bruce.

No sellers apparent---YET.
Soft volume good range.
This is about where I thought you'd start seeing resistance.
 
I LOVE todays chart - Although the LACK of volume and the CAP RAISING still worries me and hinders me from getting too excited!

Here is a PAT CHART... I think We have "maybe" just seen a break away gap... Similar to early April ( Except that was on an Announcement??? )... Hard to tell, this stock is very illiquid!

Interesting to watch this play out... May have triggered a few TA Buys, but I'm not convinced until its over LoL!

Pat
 

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Thanks for the chart Pat and the comments tech/a. Always appreciate the educational bits on ASF.

tech/a, do you mind expanding a little on the "good range" comment please?

Here I am on the sidelines waiting for below $1.60 (OK, I might be delusional) thinking it will drift down there.

Thanks in advance,

Kenny
 
http://business.smh.com.au/bhp-eyes-potash-miner-20080513-2dvm.html

BHP eyes potash miner

"With Russia tending to export to Brazil, China is one of the natural markets for Canadian potash exports. Potash use is rising in tandem with the industrialisation of emerging economies because it tends to be used more as median incomes and diets improve.

During a results briefing last month, Bill Doyle, the head of the world's largest potash exporter, Canada's PotashCorp, presented a bullish outlook for the fertiliser.

Mr Doyle said the potash price, which recently rose $US200 a tonne to $US735 a tonne, was heading towards $US1000 a tonne and was expected to remain high in the future.

Anglo Potash last week said the $US2.5-billion Saskatchewan joint venture with BHP would provide a 42 per cent return on investment if the potash price averaged $US625 a tonne. It added that returns would double to 84 per cent and the project would pay for itself within about 14 months if the potash price averaged $US1150 a tonne.

"There's no new greenfield production coming on anywhere in the world in the next five years," Mr Doyle said, noting the Chinese were expected to be 3 million tonnes short of supply this year.

"The bottom line is that the world needs more potash, and this is likely to continue for the foreseeable future."
 
kenny said:
Thanks for the chart Pat and the comments tech/a. Always appreciate the educational bits on ASF.

tech/a, do you mind expanding a little on the "good range" comment please?

Here I am on the sidelines waiting for below $1.60 (OK, I might be delusional) thinking it will drift down there.

Thanks in advance,

Kenny
Click to expand...

The bar is quite wide.
meaning that the small number of buyers that there were had to search higher for sellers to fill orders. This is a good sign although it lacks conviction for longterm price growth.Unless we can see a high volume bar with sellers absorbed.The next bar would then be telling.

Any bars which lack range and see a great increase in volume indicate sellers have returned.
If you look at past growth spurts there was initial volume pushing through those sellers---wider range.
THEN volume dropped off as prices either fell a little or went sideways only to be booted again when buyers returned.

The same pattern is happening now however the low volume moving forward isnt convincing.
I think it will take quite some effort to push price past the $2-2.08 figure.
The strength of this move will be proven here.

Bruce has done very well on his knife catching.
 
tech/a said:
Bruce has done very well on his knife catching.
Click to expand...

Thanks tech - I'll take that as a compliment...

But we all know the outcome of my buy was pure fluke... I didn't buy because I had any TA buy signal or could see a reversal. I buy because i'm a methodical accumulator of FA stocks I'm EXTREMELY bullish on. I would have accumulated in my buy zones all the way down... On that note, I NEVER double up, I buy at a qty that is appropriate to reduce my VWAP by an attractive (But not risky) percentage.

Today, volume still stinks - The CAP RAISING Effect looks to have taken hold...

My call - Yo, yo between 180-200 until its all over red rover.... Or... Until 180 or 200 breaks :banghead:

Just my opinion...

Pat
 
WOW !

The volume has become ridiculously low... 30% < Avg.

This could go on FOREVER!

AGM Friday 30th May... Counting down the days...

Pat
 
Bruce.
As expected---did you chuck the knife?
Or add it to your kitchen?
Yeh I know in it for the long haul.
Might be a while as this price action with such a deep correction indicates the possibility of longer term ranging.
 
No knife chucking, no more catching... Time to rest... Range bound IMO.

Cap Raising needs to close. AGM 30th, will be waiting beyond then... Tech & Volume weak, But i still think it will be propped and capped in this zone.

180-200... Until it beaks either way ;)

Cheers - Love your work :)
 
Behaving pretty well to "Plan".
Thois is likely to fall to its most recient low.
Further analysis then.
 
Thanks Pat and tech,

Still waiting in the wings on this one as it tracks (hopefully) in a sideways range.

At what price point would it be considered breaking into downtrend? Around the $1.60's that I mentioned was the level I would be interested :eek:

Cheers,

Kenny
 
Technically, would want to touch the 155c-165c zone again, bounce to form a lower high, then back down and break through the 155 support... Then I'd call it a prolonged down trend with a chance of seeing 100c...

Would be a shame if the price is allowed to sustain low levels... DCF says 150c is as low as we would like the Cap Raising price to be...

IMO - RWD needs to get the 20-mil issued at 150c+.

Stick to the technicals until the Cap. Raising is over... After that forget "Down Trends"... This dog will run hard.

Will likely reach recent lows but again be bought hard from there.

RWD is a friggen Aussie monopoly, no other JORC Potash... 50yr mine life.

Just my opinion - DYOR, etc, etc...

Pat
 
Great Article posted by Yellowcake on HC.... Thanks YC.

Well worth the read!

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=537032&p=1

The Hungry Planet
Is fertilizer the 'most important business on Earth?'
Sean Silcoff, Financial Post Published: Saturday, May 24, 2008

VIENNA -It's the hottest commodity that nobody cared about. Until now. In the midst of a global food crisis, governments and investors are waking up to fertilizer and its soaring prices. Financial Post reporter Sean Silcoff attended this week's International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) conference in Vienna, where the debate rages: Are fertilizer producers the solution to the world's food crisis or part of the problem?
 
Thanks tech and Pat.

From memory, the April Shaw report was assuming $1.20 as the cap raising price. I don't recall reading why they made that assumption. At that price, wouldn't one have to expect more dilution of more of the financing to be done via debt?

Pat, what was the basis for your thought that the cap raising should be $1.50? DCF & NPV based on Shaw's data (14.4% WACC etc and free cash flow coming online in 2011)?

Looking forward to both your analyses.

Regards,

Kenny
 
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