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China Potash Shortage

Sinofert sees China potash shortage; eyes early contract
Tue May 6, 2008 3:37am EDT

HONG KONG, May 6 (Reuters) - Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), China's largest distributor of imported fertilisers, expects a shortage of up to 3 million tonnes of potash this year in China after imports fell by about half and tight supplies pushed prices significantly higher.

China could have a shortfall of up to a quarter of its total demand of 11-12 million tonnes of potash this year, and Sinofert hopes to sign an import agreement much earlier in 2009 to secure supplies of the nutrient, the company's senior vice president, Harry Yang, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

China is the world's largest fertiliser market and the biggest importer for potash, which is used to boost crop yields.

Its importers agreed in April to pay more than triple what they did a year ago -- or as much as $670 per tonne, analysts say -- to secure potash supplies, but overall imports still fell about half from last year.

"We expect the tight supply of potash around the world to remain in 2009. We will try to secure our 2009 import contracts at an early date," Yang said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSHKG15129920080506
 
Interesting article, thanks.
RWD have a BFS planned for the end of the year, so will they be in a position to commit to the chinese with some resource in 2009?
I could not see on the latest presentation where they stated the date of first production would be.
Either way, shortages like this and RWD looking like the prime potash co. in Australia should bode well for the holders.
:)
 
HANDS UP THOSE WHO COUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE ???????

PAT DID! ! ! WOOT WOOT ! ! !

A gift from the brokers... Giving me another chance to buy at Cap Raising Price :p
 
This is a 90 min chart of RWD.
Currently there is no conviction in buying pressure so prices at this point are unlikely to regain upward momentum.
You could be a little premature.
Todays low will be tested when it is we will know more about where RWD is technically.
Knives and trading generally mean someone gets hurt.
But hey you may well be Bruce Lee!
 

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Ha ha ha - Well aware of the charts tech.

No fear of the knife here... I have no intention to sell until PotAsh prices begin to taper-off... I think the Cap Raising will be around 160c and the price will swing around a bit until thats clear. I have more ammo to buy again at the next level down :)...

This co. being the biggest and really the only Aussie PotAsh play helps me sleep soundly :)

But to everyone else... You should def listen to tech/a because I'm just crazy:eek:!

Pat
 
How's Bruce Lee going?
Knives not a weapon I believe in playing with.

Would rather have them in my hand than trying to catch them.
 
Oh how I LOVE TA people... Masters of gloating and it doesn't matter which forum u are reading... Always the same.

RWD is still profitable according to my porfolio...

And since I bought at 163 last week and its at 157, I'm down 6c on that buy... OH NO ! ! !

Ready to BUY again at 140c, next key zone...
 
Well, i have some in at 1.59 and some in at 2.04. Starting to wonder whether I should cut my losses on the 2.04 and buy in again at a cheaper price.
 
I am in a similar position so my average buy price is 1.89.
At this stage I will hold as I keep referring to the share price of that Gutnik bloke's potash company in the states which is huge, plus RWD have so far the biggest potash resource in Australia.
Why take a loss unless you really need to free up your funds?
:)
 
***********************************
**Theoretical Discounted Cash Flow**

Risk Ratio @ 60% of Free Cash Flow

8yr Time Line

200kt/pa Ramp to 400kt/pa by yr 7

Avg PotAsh price of $500p/ton

Avg OPEX Cost Per ton $240

CAPEX $150m (60d / 40e) Debt Paid in 7yrs

Free Cash Flows of $50m/pa (Fair Value MCap $500m)

Risk Offset Free Cash Flows $30m/pa (Fair Value MCap $300m)
***********************************

Currently RWD has 68m Shares (Diluted), MCap of $107m

Lets add some future dilution, say +40mil shares

Risk Offset $300m / 108m = $2.77 per share.

I still see HUGE value here - No matter what your charts tell you.

DYOR - I'm no expert, this is just my un-educated guess!

Pat
 
Hmmm....

I think I'll hang on.... I'm not trading massive amounts. Though i have another 5k to put on and i'm thinking about putting it in RWD.

Do they have a production date? I haven't seen it anywhere...
 
pattyp said:
HANDS UP THOSE WHO COUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE ???????

PAT DID! ! ! WOOT WOOT ! ! !

A gift from the brokers... Giving me another chance to buy at Cap Raising Price :p
Click to expand...

Gloating?

All forms of analysis are simply wrong until proven correct.
The sooner people realise that its not a competition between analysis types but about being profitable.

I may well be crazy but to seea stake drop 25% and do NOTHING about it as I'm sure many have---just isnt good business.
 
Dude - I dropped the issue and didn't come back... You came out today and had a dig...

I'm in no competition and I didn't challenge your opinion - In fact I agreed with your original comment...??

I don't understand you... Should I follow you around and hound you on your stocks...? No way!

You didn't even post a chart and explain your analysis... At least I have posted my DCF.
 
Watching from the sidelines at this stage and waiting for a reason to pull the trigger. I'm happy to hear the TA view as well as the FA anytime. My sense of market timing is terrible so please feel free to post when the knives go clattering onto the floor :)

This article is about Phosphate but the reasoning is the same.

Cheers,

Kenny


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-18261,00.html

Phosphate latest craze for investors

PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby | May 12, 2008

NO sooner does one mania finish, it seems, than another one is off to the races.

There was the uranium craziness, followed by mini-manias for various specialty metals and iron ore juniors. Millions of dollars was thrown at them all, but it appears that punters want to roll the dice one more time.

This time it's phosphate. Look what happened with Uramet Minerals (URM) and Krucible Metals (KRM) in the past few days. The former's stock shot up to an intraday gain of 250 per cent after it announced finding phosphate in grab samples at its Thorntonia project north of Mt Isa and -- more importantly -- next to the Lady Annie deposit controlled by Joseph Gutnick.

Krucible is also in the same neck of the woods and all it needed was for the mob to belatedly read the company's quarterly report and be reminded that it is sitting on land close to Phosphate Hill, the mine owned by Incitec Pivot (IPL). Krucible still has to get site clearances before it can drill, so it is very early days.

Yes, phosphate is going to be big. But, also yes, this has all the smell of the early uranium mania. Just as, 18 months ago, half the languishing juniors suddenly found potential for uranium on their gold (or base metals, or iron ore) tenements, now suddenly previously unsuspected phosphate indicators are being announced.

How many years is it going to take these greenfields projects to get into operation? Who knows, but investors buying for a long-term position should heed the words from New Zealand on Friday.

Peter Mourits of NZ's largest fertiliser supplier, Ballance Agri-Nutrients, made two points. One, there is no shortage of raw materials reserves and, two, new projects are well into the planning stages.

He didn't cite examples, but we can. Morocco and Western Sahara have enough known phosphate to meet the world's demand at present levels for 300 years. And big money is going into new production, including a new mine in Morocco (the so-called Saudi Arabia of phosphate). An Indian company is to spend $US1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) to build a fertiliser plant in Mozambique, a country with large known resources of phosphate. And another Indian company has teamed up with Singapore money to develop new mines.

It is true that phosphate is going to be in huge demand to meet world food needs. But it's a long way from grab samples to bagging the end product.

One final point: there may be pauses in demand growth as fertiliser use is hit by price resistance. In the past few days, there have been reports that farmers in The Philippines may no longer be able to afford it, and that NZ farmers may use less superphosphate due to cost blow-outs.
Click to expand...
 
LoL - I must have caught a case of the "Lanstrom Luck Virus"!

That was a VERY nice close... I though I'd be filling my 140c 4 sure!

Can't be bothered posting a chart, but looks like lots of buying at these levels. Slight increase in volume and a close on high for the day. Candles look like a hammer formation, but we need tomorrow to confirm. Two long wicks have formed, could be considered a tweezers bottom. All this in a key support zone.

Jury is out until tomorrow - Hope for confirmation candle.

So far my 163c buy looks ok and within tollerance.

Cheers all,
Pat
 
This may be a positive for RWD's valuation. Anglo Minerals was just another Nevada gold speccie until they changed their name in February.

Cheers,

Kenny

BHP to buy Canada potash partner for $300m

Reuters

CALGARY -- BHP Billiton Ltd's Canadian unit has launched a $C284 million ($299.79 million) friendly takeover bid for Anglo Potash Ltd to gain full control of a partnership to develop a Saskatchewan potash mine, Anglo Potash says.

Under the deal, BHP will offer Anglo's stockholders $C8.15 in cash for each of their shares, which it said was a 34 per cent premium over Friday's closing price on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Anglo Poash chief executive Todd Montgomery and several other company directors have agreed to tender their combined 26 per cent stake to the offer.

The company has a 25 per cent interest in a partnership with BHP Billiton Diamonds Inc, which holds 32 potash permits covering more than 1.8 million acres (728,500 hectares).

Shares in Anglo Potash jumped $C1.99, or nearly 33 per cent, to $C8.06 on Monday.
Click to expand...
 
DOH!!!

Sorry Kenny...

You musta been posting at same time as me... LoL!

Its Good news and a great indicator.

Pat
 
no problems, pat!

Good to see RWD responding to positively today. A bit more volume wouldn't hurt either.

Cheers,

Kenny
 
Now that was a DARN FINE day!

What can I say... I'm speachless...

BUT - I don't think I like the gap and candle today produced... Hmmmm!

Engineered sell pressure to manipulate the candle maybe...? They want to keep it low for the Cap Raising... Will be interesting to watch this play out!

IMO - RWD is a highly under valued stock, even when u factor in risk... Let the good times roll on ( I hope :) )

Pat
 
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