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RRL - Regis Resources

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BtL finance warned that the March Qtrlys of Oz gold producers might be a continuation of past bad performance, now out comes RRL Mar Qtrly with a list of reasons for all their operations missing incl Tropicana for which we know the consensus is they overpaid and what is not disputable, they raised capital for by diluting shares at a crummy depressed price.
Guidance now AISC at $1,845AU upper range, with $0.2B growth capital not counting $66m for Expl and McPhillamys.

Held

Screenshot_20230417-101418_Drive.jpg
 
finicky said:
BtL finance warned that the March Qtrlys of Oz gold producers might be a continuation of past bad performance, now out comes RRL Mar Qtrly with a list of reasons for all their operations missing incl Tropicana for which we know the consensus is they overpaid and what is not disputable, they raised capital for by diluting shares at a crummy depressed price.
Guidance now AISC at $1,845AU upper range, with $0.2B growth capital not counting $66m for Expl and McPhillamys.

Held

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Do you have any info on how much hedging they have left? i remember previously they hedged at 1600AUD levels when AISC was 1400AUD and the hedges were supposed to run out by 2023 or 2024, around 30% of their production is hedged?

Finally McPhillamys is approved and the next paperwork likely to be approved as well soon. How much is it expected to contribute to EPS? anything major?

Are any of you vested in other gold miners which may be better choice?

Still holding small amoubt of this at average price around $3
 
** Unhedged by end of FY24 **

according to their February presentation

Total hedge book reduced to 170koz at $1,571/oz as at 31 December 2022

Existing hedges scheduled to be delivered in full by June 2024

further down in the same presentation
 
17 April 2023

Regis Gives Back Recent Gains on WA Weakness​

By Glenn Dyer |

Three weeks ago, Regis Resources was talking up its McPhillamy’s gold mine prospect in the central west of NSW after the project had received consent from the state government but yesterday it was a different story with the company revealing a very weak performance from is WA mining operations.

The update to the ASX ahead of the release of its full March quarterly saw Regis shares slump 12% at one stage after the company revealed gold output went sideways as costs jumped sharply. The shares ended the day at $2.15, down 11%.

Regis downgraded its full year production forecast while lifting its cost outlook for the year to June which it blamed on a disappointing March quarter, changes to mine schedules, and inflationary pressures.
Regis now puts full-year production guidance at between 450,000 ounces and 470,000 ounces. While Regis said that is “within the original guidance range” of 450,000 to 500,000 ounces it is still a noticeable fall of up to 10%.
Its All in Sustaining Costs (AISC) have risen from $1,795 to $1,845 an ounce, up to 13% worse than the original forecast for an AISC of $1,525 to $1,625 an ounce. The downgrade was blamed on lower-than-expected gold production in the March quarter, as well as changes to mine schedules and inflationary pressures.

The company said gold production totalled 103,728 ounces over the first three months of 2023, only a few thousand ounces higher than the 103,100 ounces for the March, 2022 quarter.

Regis said the disappointing production was largely due to the slower-than-expected ramp-up of the Duketone Garden Well South underground, unplanned maintenance at the Rosemont process plant, lower underground performance at Tropicana, and wet weather.

It also lifted its growth capital forecast to $195 million to $205 million today – up from $180 million to $190 million.
One positive from the report was the company’s statement that all non-weather-related issues have since been rectified and production is now back on track in the early part of the current quarter.

But Regis here cautioned that Duketon had experienced wet weather impacts late in March, “which have extended into April… We note that the potential for extended wet weather events continue.”

But the company’s cash and bullion balance lifted $53 million in the quarter to $204 million. That includes a $67 million tax refund.

CEO Jim Beyer commented, “The performance in the March quarter was below expectation, however, we remain on track to deliver the long-term plans for the Company. Over the last two years we have been investing heavily in our existing operations for a future of growth. We are coming to the end of that investment period and looking forward to entering the cash build phase over the June quarter."

The full March quarter report will be out on April 27.
 
divs4ever said:
** Unhedged by end of FY24 **

according to their February presentation

Total hedge book reduced to 170koz at $1,571/oz as at 31 December 2022

Existing hedges scheduled to be delivered in full by June 2024

further down in the same presentation
Click to expand...
Man thats a lot of pain until 2024. maybe good to buy in during dips in 2024?
Cant imagine mining AISC at 1800AUD now and using the massive profits now that spot is close to 3k to cover for the hedge book.
well looking good going ahead though, last year we had that mine collapse during the wet weather season.
 
bluekelah said:
Man thats a lot of pain until 2024. maybe good to buy in during dips in 2024?
Cant imagine mining AISC at 1800AUD now and using the massive profits now that spot is close to 3k to cover for the hedge book.
well looking good going ahead though, last year we had that mine collapse during the wet weather season.
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one would hope that RRL doesn't hedge it's total gold production , also hedging is a two-edged sword and is often a requirement to getting adequate financing ( takes the regularity out of capital raises )

but is dip buying the correct strategy here , i note a different mid-tier miner ( that i do not hold ) that goes from setback to setback

now one problem with hedging is if you can't deliver the contracted amount of gold from the mining operations ( and have to buy on-market all or part of the hedged amount )

i would suggest very careful if dip-buying
 
 
Another predictably sh*t Qtrly from the geniuses at RRL and FY24 is guided to be a worse ASIC.
With the inept hedges to be finally sold off over FY24 at a rate of 30kozs per Qtr that'd be at an added loss of almost $40m per Qtr I think. Then there'll be an added 'non cash' $87m if I've got it right to be written off their low grade stockpile of ore as it's no longer profitable to process at today's inflated costs. The stockpile was valued at its mining cost of $200 per oz so they're going to add that as a $200/oz impost to FY24 ASIC per oz. My guess is it shouldn't have been valued as an asset at all if it was that borderline, but it gave this desperate company a better look at that time to mark it an asset not waste.
The high capital costs will go on for years with McPhillamys coming up.

Held ?

Screenshot_20230727-144734_Drive.jpg
 
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finicky said:
With the inept hedges to be finally sold off over FY24 at a rate of 30kozs per Qtr that'd be at an added loss of almost $40m per Qtr I think.
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Something wrong with my arithmetic there I think

Edit: nope calced it another way and incredibly I think it's right - about an added loss of $40m per Qtr.
Spot price = A$2,900
120,000 ozs hedged @ $1571/oz to be cleared at even rate per quarter over FY24
Difference between current spot and hedge price = 2,900 - 1,570 (rounded) = 1,330 oz loss on hedge
Loss FY24 from hedges = 120,000 ozs x $1,330 = approx $160,000,000 or $40m per Qtr
 
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TimeISmoney said:
I worked for them years ago and their internal management was truly stale
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I wonder whether the cfo from the time that the onerous hedges were instated suffered any repercussion. They're all quick to award themselves incentives or bonuses when serendipity gives the business a good run but nothing negative on the other side of the ledger when they fk up. Gold mining executives who had no faith in the future gold price, what visionaries.
 
Rabbithop said:
Let me know if it's down to $1 then I will try 1k luck on it... shame on them...incomparable to a newbie... DEG.
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hmmm $1 ( or less ) would have me considering whether to add more

but hedging can be a trap all on it's own , especially if a condition to getting finance
 
divs4ever said:
hmmm $1 ( or less ) would have me considering whether to add more

but hedging can be a trap all on it's own , especially if a condition to getting finance
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Play with own spare pocket money...check market later..need to attend on line funeral service of a friend..slipped off peacefully to be with the Lord after 98yrs on Earth.
 

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