ROC - Roc Oil Company

[GREENS]

BSD…lol, yep definitely looks like elephant country to me. The Roc team have a good track record lets just hope luck is on there side with this one. I am interested to see how your production forecasts and general analysis turned out. It is always good to have some external constructive views in order to make the valuation potentially more accurate. The Rights issue definitely was a drag on the SP for a while, but was only a matter of time before it got moving again.

Also very interesting to read Nicks T/A views (they are much appreciated), although I only use very very simplistic T/A, I strongly agree that roc would most likely gain support at around the $3.30 mark if there is a general market pullback, but don’t think a temporary pull back to the main support level around or just above $2.80 could be completely ruled out if dry wells are drilled in Angola. If roc does strike oil then as John Doran stated in the AGM the value to roc could potentially be in the $’s.

Snake I will most definitely be holding onto Roc well beyond 08 even if all wells in Angola are dry given its diversified portfolio potential. If all wells in Angola turn out to be dry then I am expecting an over reaction on the down side because many traders would be holding this purely for the speculation of success in Angola. But based on just its earnings flows over the next few years the share price should bounce back relatively quickly. I gain confidence in this decision given my analysis gives roc a PV, just from production earnings and not taking into a/c exploration of around $3.70 (NOTE: given some key assumptions hold: oil price, NPM). However realistically whether or not I will continue to hold roc beyond 08 all depends on whether circumstances change (e.g. if management change etc)

The main reason that 09 earnings were not forecasted was because I would be coming up with unrealistic figures, it would just be a guessing game; there are just too many unknown variables to take into a/c such as:
•When (that is if) will Beibu Gulf come into production and at how many BOPD
•What will be the rate of flow (BOPD) coming from the development of the extended reach at ZD
•Will there be problems that will cause already producing fields to shut down

Waz this analysis was done at the start of the year, while some aspects have been changed; I had not updated the ER, but definitely a good point to be made. I changed the ER to 0.82 for 07 & 08 and the effect on Rocs EPS was very minimal, not even a whole 1c downward change in EPS.

Also is anyone else a little worried about Enoch (which roc is not the operator), it has been pushed back from start up at the end of 1Q to the start of 2Q then was meant to be due last week and now when, does anyone have any idea (hopefully this week)!! If production is anything like this development phase it’s not looking promising, hope I will be proved wrong.

 

[BSD]

Comments Re: GREENY's analysis. (I PENNED THIS PRE THE ABOVE POST)

Looks reasonable.

WACC looks spot on and cannot disagree violently with the WTIS/AUDUSD assumptions

The net profit margins in the model are very conservative; but in lieu of continued exploration success, the 16 times multiple for 08 earnings could be a touch high.

While ROC is an excellent explorer a lower PE may be more appropriate for conservatism. They have reserves of about 5 years of production in reserve. Of course, they can uplift a lot of this with drilling success.

In any case, I reckon they could do NPAT of ~$100m (with $50m of exploration expense) in 2008

Using 10 times, (a round number, not scientific), you get a $1bn cap or $4.62 - with a present value of about $3.35 per share (9%). Not a bad base case and this aligns with some broker NPVs.

Angola (and other expansion) is not included in this and ROC have some massive expectations for this prospect.

From the research I have at-hand, analysts are not having a hard time getting a figure of $0.50-$0.70+ per share for exploration upside out of ROC in excess of their DCF vals.

This is giving 'price targets' in excess of the current price.

The US driving season usually gives the oil price a wriggle-on (they are the only oil consuming nation in their mind) so the underlying momentum could be great for ROC getting traction if they hit a solid oil column in Angola

I would note that I am an "Oil Muppet" and are far better placed to comment on base metals!

 

[GreatPig]

Yes but he pays for that video and only the author has the right to post it.

While not all the other material may be paid for, the author's (or possibly publisher's) permission is also required to repost it. Just because material is freely available on the Internet, doesn't mean you're free to repost it at will.

What is your take on ROC GP? are you holding yet?

My take looks like this (attached chart), and yes, I'm holding.

GP

 

[GREENS]

BSD looks good at a quick glance; I will have a better look tomorrow when I have more time. I see your point with the reduced PE and it’s a good one. My view on 16 as a multiple was made on the basis that the energy sector historically averages around 13-15 and Roc could potentially extend the life with drilling of Zhao Dong in 07, develop Beibu and still provide exploration upside in 08, thus incorporating a conservative factor of growth into the PE multiple for 08.

On something else which is off the topic of Roc and on to base metals, I was after some advice in regards to a question I have on valuing zinc stocks; I will post the comment in the CBH folder, if you wouldn’t mind answering.

 

[GREENS]

BSD I have had a closer look at your analysis, I don’t quite understand how you got a FV value for 08 of $4.62, not trying to criticise it in anyway just trying to get a feel for how you got your numbers, I could be completely wrong here (as I am relatively new and continuing to learn many aspects of stock valuation) but this is how I took your figures:

•You used a multiple of 10 and NPAT of $100m, which gives a market cap of $1billion. Given a market cap of $1billion you divide it by the no of shares on issue (298m) and get a 08 value of $3.36 don’t you?

i.e. 10*$100m = $1billion market cap
1000/298 = $3.35 (future 08 value of rocs SP not taking into a/c exploration upside)

Then depending on the frequency of compounding method, you would get a PV of

1.3.36*(1.09)^-2 = 2.82 + PV of exploration upside
2.3.36*e^ (-0.09*2) = 2.805 + “……..”

As you recommended the PE multiple could be lower than the figure I used (16), given the relatively short production life of roc’s assets at the present time.

Again has anyone heard anything in regards to Enoch start up it was meant to be on stream last week?

 

[bigdog]

SP this morning up 5 cents after ANN

ROC $3.42 +$0.05 +1.48% 87,497 share $298,202 28-May 10:38:29

ASX ANN today

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00724577

28 May 2007
ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED ("ROC")
STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE
DRILLING ACTIVITY UPDATE: OFFSHORE PERTH BASIN EXPLORATION DRILLING - PERSEVERANCE-1
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Limited advises that, as of 0600 hrs Australian Western Standard Time on 28 May 2007, an extensive wireline evaluation programme had been completed at the Perseverance-1 exploration well and the well has been plugged and abandoned as a gas discovery.

Preliminary interpretation of drilling, wireline and pressure data indicates that the well intersected gas saturated sand over a gross interval of 31 metres within which there are 28 metres of net gas reservoir. The gas accumulation is at the top of the objective Permian section, interpreted as being equivalent to the Dongara Sandstone and possibly the upper Irwin River Coal Measures. Reservoir quality appears to be poor to moderate.

The Perseverance discovery is located in WA-325-P in the offshore Perth Basin, approximately 33 km west of Geraldton. The structure has a maximum vertical relief of approximately 80 metres and is apparently gas-filled. Initial calculations for the accumulation suggest in-place gas in the range of 20 - 50 BCF.

The forward programme for the Premium "Wilcraft" rig is to start drilling the final well in the three well programme, Dunsborough-1 in WA-286-P, approximately 50 km southeast of Perseverance-1 and 25 km northwest of Frankland-1, later this week.

Participating Interests in WA-325-P are:
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Ltd (Operator).................................................37.5%
Apache Northwest Pty Limited...................................................37.5%
ARC (Offshore PB) Limited........................................................20.0%
Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd. (Mitsui & Co Group of Companies)...........5.0%*

 

[bigdog]

SP up today after ASX ann
ROC $3.39 +$0.09 +2.73% 326,353 shares $1,097,580 @ 12-Jun 11:22:40

ROC 10:58 AM AWE's ann: Dunsborough-1 Discovers Oil
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00728829

Roc Oil (WA) Pty Ltd (Operator) 37.5% share

June 12, 2007
AWE’s Dunsborough-1 discovers oil
AWE, reports that the Dunsborough-1 exploration well, in WA-286-P, in the offshore Perth Basin, has been drilled to a total depth of 1,755 metres and has been classified as a new field oil and gas discovery.

Preliminary interpretation of the comprehensive electric logging suite, including the collection of fluid samples, suggests that the well has drilled a minimum 25 metre gross hydrocarbon column of which approximately 18 metres is net pay.

The accumulation appears to have a small (< 13 metres) gross gas column above an oil column containing light oil (approximately 40 deg API) in sands of poor to moderate reservoir quality. Pressure data indicate that the total gross hydrocarbon column associated with the Dunsborough structure may be up to 70 metres.

Tentative volumetric estimates by the Operator suggest that the structure could contain between 20 and 40 million barrels of oil in - place.

As of 0600 hours today, the current operation at Dunsborough-1 was preparing to plug and abandon the well in accordance with the pre-drill schedule. Dunsborough-1, located approximately 25 km south of Geraldton, Western Australia and about 50 km northwest of the Cliff Head Oil Field, is the final well in an offshore Perth Basin drilling programme which was initiated in early April.

Participants in WA 286 P are:
AWE 27.5%
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Ltd (Operator) 37.5%
Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd * 24.0%
Arc (Offshore PB) Limited 6.0%
CIECO Exploration and Production (Australia) Pty Ltd 5.0%

 

[GREENS]

There is some potential here; hopefully with some luck if there are some more discoversies in close proximity to these already known discoveries (i.e. side track wells), Roc and co ventures could make these commercial. Although they are small discoveries in relative terms, shows the potenial of offshore WA, in which Roc has a solid interest in.

Commenting on the three well programme ROC’s Chief Executive Officer, John Doran stated that:


“It is always nice to drill three offshore exploration wells and make three discoveries, particularly when that extends the known oil and gas fields some 200 kilometres along regional strike to the northwest of the Cliff Head Oil Field. However, at the end of the day we’re not looking to play with exploration success statistics but rather to clock up commercial success - and it will take some time to establish whether or not we have done that.


Of the three discoveries, Frankland and Dunsborough look as if they have the best chance of being developed, while Perserverance will probably need a lot of good things to happen around it if is going to make the grade.


Whatever the details, it would seem that an exploration programme that was regarded by ROC as the last throw of the dice in the northern offshore Perth Basin, has certainly provided enough success to cause us to move the discoveries on to the appraisal stage and continue to explore around and on trend from them.” (www.rocoil.com.au)

 

[GREENS]

Market doesnt seee this as anything to special for ROC, rising only around 2% in a general up market and considering it took a beating in fri trading, down 5%. While AWE and ARQ on the other hand, co ventures in the tenants have risen much higher in intraday trading up around 3% & 6% respectively.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Market doesnt seee this as anything to special for ROC, rising only around 2% in a general up market and considering it took a beating in fri trading, down 5%. While AWE and ARQ on the other hand, co ventures in the tenants have risen much higher in intraday trading up around 3% & 6% respectively.

I have been dissapointed with ROC since taking a long entry. Today I closed my position at a small loss to put it into something else. Those long spikes, and large volume on Friday don't look too inspiring to stay with a long position. I may be wrong but it is still going down.

What is all the volatility telling us?

 

[GREENS]

Found this article on Roc and other oilers the other day on the net, although fairly negative on Roc I thought it was quite interesting and thought other holders of Roc may want to have a read. Personally I have never heard of this guy and have no idea of his reputation or track record…He makes some good points but think some of his other points are little off skew...make up your on mind.

http://www.stockanalysis.com.au/samples/sample2.pdf

 

[bigdog]

SP this morning hit high of $3.46

Currently ROC $3.25 +$0.47 +16.91% high $3.46 and low $3.25 1,672,961 shares $5,667,352 @ 30-Aug 10:16:48

ASX ann today
30/08/2007 Exploration Update- Massambala Oil Discovery, Onshore Angola
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753850

Roc Oil (Cabinda) Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of ROC, is pleased to advise that the Massambala-1CH2 sidetrack hole has reached a prognosed total depth of 491 metres and wireline and coring programmes have been completed. The sidetrack hole was drilled to evaluate a shallow oil zone intersected by Massambala-1, ROC’s first exploration well in Angola.

On 27 August 2007, Massambala-1CH2 was suspended for possible re-entry in order to determine the commercial merit of the discovery. Laboratory analyses have been initiated with regard to the fluid and core samples obtained from the sidetrack well and results are expected during the next several weeks. In the meantime, a preliminary interpretation of currently available data provides the following insights:

• The oil is mobile, not residual.
• Visually, the oil appears to be heavy and viscous, but definitive comment must await laboratory analysis. In any event, the oil seems to bear comparison to many crudes that are currently being routinely produced in other parts of the world via standard heavy oil industry production techniques.
• Although there appears to be a 1 to 2 metre oil sand higher in the section, the sidetrack confirmed that the main zone of interest is a 16 metre gross oil column with approximately 15 metres (94%) of net oil saturated sand with good to excellent reservoir qualities and an associated wireline log anomaly.

At the depth of the shallow oil accumulation, approximately 400 metres, the Massambala feature is currently mapped on 3D seismic data as a gentle four-way dip structure with a vertical relief in the order of 16 metres at the well which is located a few metres below the structure’s high point. As currently mapped, the area of structural closure is approximately 26 sq km/6,400 acres and based on an apparent oil-water contact identified in the well, it would seem that the shallow Massambala structure is filled to spill.

It is far too early to comment specifically on potential recoverable reserves at Massambala but volumetric calculations, based on the most recent 3D seismic mapping and available well data, suggest the in-place oil resource potential could be in the order of 170 MMBO. In a more generic sense and subject to specific field details, heavy oil recovery techniques can recover a minimum of 10% of the oil in-place, often about 20% and sometimes considerably more.

Participating Interests in the Cabinda South Block are:
ROC Group Companies (Operator) 60%
Force Petroleum Limited 20%
Sonangol P&P S.A. 20%

 

[Ken]

what are we valuing ROC oil at?

Are we looking at the next Major oil producer here?


Ranking

WPL
STO
AED
ROC

???

 

[bigdog]

ASX ann today
30/08/2007 Half Yearly Report and Accounts
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753975

SP currently ROC $3.23 +$0.45 +16.19% with high $3.46

Report reads VG

2007 HALF YEAR FINANCIAL RESULTS SUMARY
Today, ROC releases its half year financial report and appendix 4D for the period ended 30 June 2007. In the accompanying Financial Statements, ROC is required to compare its 1H2007 results with the equivalent figures for the corresponding period last year. However, the rapid organic and acquisitive growth of the Company in the last twelve months generated several near record results during 1H2007 that render comparisons between the two periods largely meaningless. The key points pertaining to the 1H2007 results include:

• Production of 1.6 MMBOE from five fields, compared to 0.3 MMBOE from two fields in 1H2006.
• Net Sales Revenue of $100.8 million, up $83.2 million on $17.6 million in 1H2006.
• Trading Profit of $45.0 million, up $40.9 million on $4.1 million profit in 1H2006.
• Cash Flow from operating activities $58.9 million, up $61.8 million, a significant improvement on a negative $2.9 million cash flow in 1H2006.
• Net Loss after income tax of $8.8 million, a $13.4 million improvement on the loss of $22.2 million in 1H2006.
• EBITDAX of $67.3 million, up $63.7 million on $3.6 million in 1H2006.
• Per barrel production costs of $10.19/BOE ($16.0 million), a $1.29/BOE (11%) improvement on $11.48/BOE in 1H2006.
• Amortisation of $27.76/BOE ($43.6 million) in 1H2007 compared to $22.89/BOE in 1H2006.
• Exploration and appraisal expenditure of $52.3 million was incurred mainly in relation to drilling four exploration wells, the pre-drill preparatory work, including rig mobilisation, for the Angolan drilling and seismic programmes and the acquisition of potentially high impact exploration acreage in offshore Madagascar. Exploration drilling resulted in four discoveries from four wells, three of which, are considered to have commercial potential: Frankland and Dunsborough, offshore Australia and Massambala, onshore Angola.
• All of the $52.3 million in exploration costs has been expensed in accordance with ROC’s "successful efforts" accounting policy because the three discoveries require appraisal work and therefore cannot presently be demonstrated to be commercial on a stand alone basis.
• Development expenditure of $37.0 million incurred, reflecting the completion and commissioning of the Enoch Oil and Gas Field and progress towards completion of the Blane Oil Field, both in the North Sea, as well as the commencement of work on
the Incremental Development Plan for the Zhao Dong C & D Oil Fields, Bohai Bay, Offshore China.
• A cash flow gain of $5.0 million was realised as a result of hedge contracts being settled. However, during 1H2007 ROC ceased hedge accounting on the majority of its hedge book in order to maintain compliance with the technical requirements of the Australian accounting standards. This resulted in a reported hedge-related loss of $18 million being expensed due to the movement in the mark to market value of the hedges that do not qualify for hedge accounting, partly offset by a gain of $1.5 million for the remaining swap contracts that do qualify for hedge accounting.
• During the period the Chinese Government announced that it would reduce the income tax rate from 33% to 25% effective from 1 January 2008, which resulted in a non-cash deferred tax benefit of $26.5 million in the Income Statement.
• Net debt position at 30 June 2007 of $126.8 million compared to $113.1 million at
31 December 2006, which was in the form of a 12 month Bridge Facility which was refinanced with a four year US$200 million facility on 20 August 2007.

 

[GREENS]

aven’t posted on my bread and butter stock for a while, probably because its SP hasn’t been doing too much, well in fact going backwards and secondly no one seems to give a S*#t about it, I end up talking to myself.

Cash flows are very strong, the only reason for the subdued NPAT (-8.8m and EPS of
-3c) was because of the companies aggressive exploration and devt program which cost a an arm and a leg to fund The good news though is that those expensive North Sea Developments (Enoch and Blane) will come to an end soon and begin contributing considerably to revenues, I think the North Sea will represent 1/3 of the companies production. Heres a bit of an overview of were the company is at:

Production:

•Cliff Head (37.5%) back producing at a constant rate of 10,000BOPD
•Zhao Dong (24.5%) producing around 20,000BOPD (hopefully will increase towards 25,000BOPD with devt drilling)
•Enoch (12%) producing at 12,000BOPD and 20MSCF
•Mauritania (3.5%) producing around 12,000BOPD and falling

Development/Appraisal:

•Blane Oil field (12,5%) to start producing in the next month at around 17,000BOPD
•Beibu Gulf (40%), so much potential here have already discovered something around recoverable oil 30MMBO, devt expected towards the end of the year and should start producing sometime in 2009 at 10,000-15,000BOPD, not taking into a/c 4 additional oil accumulations in the south end of the block, although quite heavy and viscous could be commercial if the north end of the block gets the green light.
•C4 oil field (11.75%) extension of the Zhao Dong oil field, currently under construction and should begin producing late 2008 @ 10,000BOPD
•Appraisal of the latest discoveries offshore WA. Could be another cliff head, I.e. in ARQ’s words from their presentation, as long as it can be followed up with a successful side track well.

Exploration:

•Angola, not much more needs to be said, 1st well has discovered oil, with another 4 planned…(note: haven’t really assessed the latest discovery as yet but saw that it could contain 170MMBOIP with recoveries of 10-20%.
•Beibu Gulf, again not much needs to be said the attractiveness of this tenant speaks for itself.
•Also further exploration will be conducted at Madagascar, offshore Perth basin, equatorial guinea and Mauritania.

Ken I remember reading in AFR smart investor an article saying Roc could potentially be the next Woodside, long way off at the moment, but seems to be heading in the right direction with very good management.

Note: this is not advice on whether to purchase a stock just a general overview/update of where the company is currently at this is a speculative stock with considerable foreign risk.

 

[bigdog]

Todays Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...n-oil-discovery/2007/08/30/1188067276921.html

Roc shares surge on Angolan oil discovery
August 31, 2007

ROC Oil shares rose the most in 15 months after the company said it might be able to produce from the Massambala discovery in Angola, raising optimism about more finds.

Roc Oil jumped 45 ¢, or 16 per cent, to $3.23, the highest for almost three weeks.

Roc's Cabinda South venture, which includes Force Petroleum and the national oil company Sonangol SA, started drilling in June as part of a $54 million exploration program.

Roc said about 20 per cent of the estimated 170 million barrels in the Massambala field might be produced.

"This has captured everyone's imagination that maybe Angola will be an area of interest for these guys," said Luke Smith, an oil and gas analyst at ABN Amro Australia.

Massambala-1, the first well drilled in the Cabinda region in 35 years, is targeting a potential 33 million-barrel discovery.

It holds heavy, viscous oil, rather than the light oil typical of Angolan and West African crudes that Roc was targeting.

"Massambala becomes the most recent addition to Roc's conveyor belt of projects which merit more thorough appraisal," Roc chief executive John Doran said in a statement to the stock exchange.

Oil and gas accounts for 49 per cent of the gross domestic product of Angola.

The country became the 12th member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in January but as yet has no production quota.

Roc's exploration program in Angola would continue to primarily target the lighter grades of crude that are more typical of the region, Mr Doran said. Roc owns 60 per cent of the venture, while Force and Sonangol each own 20 per cent.

Roc reported a narrower first-half loss of $8.8 million, compared with $22.2 million a year earlier.

 

[bigdog]

ASX ANN today
ROC 9:42 AM Activity Update-Production, North Sea-First Oil from Blane
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00758751

ROC’s wholly owned subsidiary, Roc Oil (GB) Limited, is pleased to advise that on 12 September 2007, the Blane Oil Field started production. Gross production rates are expected to quickly rise to approximately 17,000 BOEPD (ROC: 2,125 BOEPD), almost entirely oil. Blane is tied back to the BP-operated Ula Oil Field, 34 kilometres to the northeast in Norway, from where the oil will be transported via a sub-sea pipeline to the Teeside Oil Terminal in the UK.

The Blane Oil Field, operated by Talisman Energy (UK) Limited, is located in UK Block 30/3a and Norwegian Block 1/2, about 260 kilometres east of Aberdeen. Because the field straddles the UK and Norwegian international boundary it has been unitised: 82% (UK) and 18% (Norway). As previously reported the field’s gross proved and probable (2P) reserves are estimated to be 30.4 MMBOE (ROC:3.8 MMBOE), 97% oil.

Commenting on the Blane start-up, ROC’s Chief Executive Officer, John Doran stated that:
“Blane further diversifies ROC’s production base which now comprises oil production, from six fields in four countries. Coming along behind Blane during the next year or two are field developments offshore China and appraisal projects relating to recent discoveries offshore Western Australia and onshore Angola."

Unitised Interests in the Blane Oil Field are:
Roc Oil (GB) Limited....................................................................................12.5%
Talisman Energy (UK) Limited........................................................................25.0%
Talisman Energy Norge AS............................................................................18.0%
MOC Exploration (U.K.) Limited (a subsidiary of Nippon Oil Corporation).....14.0%
ENI UK Limited...............................................................................................13.9%
ENI ULX Limited...............................................................................................4.1%
Bow Valley Petroleum (UK) Limited...............................................................12.5%

 

[GREENS]

Roc down more than 4.5% over the last 2 days on slightly greater than average volume although oil is near record highs and has averaged well over the $US70 for the current quarter thus far. ROC is currently Producing around 10,000BOPD, with Blane in the North Sea coming on stream yesterday adding >2,000BOPD net to ROC. Aggressive Exploration program aimed for 2H 07. Should be generating somewhere between $70m-$80m in Revenue for the 3Q. Yet the SP continues to hover around the $3 mark, puzzling to say the least .

 

[bigdog]

ASX ann today with small drop in SP

ROC $3.11 -$0.03 -0.96% with high of $3.18 and low of $3.08 1,776,216 shares $5,542,832 @ 18-Sep 15:46:41

18/09/2007 Activity Update - Production
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00760229

ROC’s net production currently approximates to 12,900 BOEPD from six fields in four countries, including the most recent addition to its production portfolio, the Blane Oil Field in the North Sea. The production spread is: 37% China; 33% Australia; 27% UK and 3% Africa. Between now and the end of 2007, ROC expects that the Company’s total production will remain within a 10,000 – 12,000 BOEPD range, as forecast in October 2006 (Attachment 1), subject to normal industry risk factors.

A number of corporate milestones have been achieved as a result of the Company’s recent production performance including:

• Within a week of first production at the Blane Oil Field in the North Sea, this two-well field demonstrated the capacity to produce more than the pre-start up estimate of 17,000 BOEPD gross (net ROC: 2,125 BOEPD) which is the level at which production is being currently maintained.

• Production at the Enoch Oil and Gas Field in the North Sea, has largely met expectations since it commenced more than three months ago with most recent production rates of approximately 12,000 BOEPD (net ROC:1,450 BOEPD).

• In early September 2007, 16 months after production commenced, the ROC-operated Cliff Head Oil Field in Western Australia, produced its 4 millionth barrel of oil representing 22,450 man days without a Lost Time Injury. Current production for Cliff Head is approximately 11,500 BOPD (net ROC: 4,275 BOPD).

• So far during 2007 production from the C and D fields in the Zhao Dong Block, offshore China, has underperformed expectations. There are a number of reasons for this production performance, including inclement weather, down hole equipment malfunction and a degree of reservoir complexity, all of which are being addressed. Current production at Zhao Dong approximates to 20,000 BOPD (net ROC: 4,900 BOPD). Since ROC acquired the asset in mid-2006 the fields have produced approximately 9.4 MMBO and operations are on track to achieve two years without a Lost Time Injury on 1 October 2007. Fabrication of the C4 production facilities has commenced and production is still expected to start in Q4 2008.

Commenting on ROC’s production portfolio the Company’s CEO, Dr John Doran, stated that:
“The combination of a six field production base and a potential high impact eight well exploration drilling programme offshore China and onshore Angola - including two current wells, Cevada-1 and Soja-1, in Angola - provides ROC shareholders with a balanced exposure to both the current high oil price and exploration upside.”

 

[GREENS]

Roc down more than 4.5% over the last 2 days on slightly greater than average volume although oil is near record highs and has averaged well over the $US70 for the current quarter thus far. ROC is currently Producing around 10,000BOPD, with Blane in the North Sea coming on stream yesterday adding >2,000BOPD net to ROC. Aggressive Exploration program aimed for 2H 07. Should be generating somewhere between $70m-$80m in Revenue for the 3Q. Yet the SP continues to hover around the $3 mark, puzzling to say the least .

Well the sell down from CBA, could explain why ROC has gone down on nothing but good news the past few weeks, they are no longer a substantial shareholder. But what has caught my eye is that AWE has experienced a similar fate. AMP is no longer a substantial shareholder for AWE, is this telling us something we don’t already know? Very strange for such big investment funds to reduce their holdings of 2 very similar companies at the same time. Maybe they believe oil is topping and is poised for a fall or are just selling out because there are better opportunities elsewhere at the moment? Who knows, but very curious none the less?