ROC - Roc Oil Company

[doctorj]

It's interesting that most of the junior oilers are looking much stronger the last couple of days.

 

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

Roc oil

HI every one,

has any one got any opinions on Roc i bought 35000 shares at the recent low of 3.20 i have made money on and off with Roc but with the election in the states and there recent share offering on offer, i am unsure if i should sell and get out at the next up. a bit too much going for me to see a clear picture?

cheer's

 

[doctorj]

Re: Roc oil

What time frame do you invest over?

If its long term, you need to discount short term movements accordingly.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: Roc oil

ROC is my only oil play ATM. I will be taking part in the share offer and am long term on them, trade them also although not in the last month, just been buying, their cheap ATM.

Good management, good exploration and plenty of potential, just been hammered by the oil correction. I'm bullish on oil long term and I think ROC's the best play.

Only my opinion though.

 

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

Re: Roc oil

i'm pretty bad it all seems to be short term.... it's bit like my relationships with women.

 

[doctorj]

Re: Roc oil

OK.

So short term.... less than 3 months perhaps.

Why did you buy?

 

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

Re: Roc oil

well,

i have been watching it and trying to chart it (only new at it) for a while, bought and sold it at the last low and then bought Lhg at its low and sold it but sold about 30cents to early but happy with what i made now just playing with Roc agin and thinking of buying in the share offer, and also i need some extera cash to finish my car.

 

[doctorj]

Re: Roc oil

If you post your chart and some notes on why and when you entered, there are many talented people here that may volunteer some thoughts and may even discuss exit planning for your current position.

 

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

Re: Roc oil

my charting is nothing special, its just that roc has a lot of debt and is trying raise capital by 20th, so my thoughts are that it will have short rise and then drop back a bit.

 

[siempre33]

ROC.AX: siempre33, this looks way too depressed....

LONDON (AFX) - Roc Oil Company Ltd said developmental costs at Blane Oil Field, located in the North Sea, are likely to increase 20 pct from previous estimates to 250 mln stg due to exceptional weather conditions and delayed construction work.

The company also said these problems mean it is now likely that first oil production from the Blane field will slip to the third quarter of 2007, but it added that Enoch Oil field's first production is on schedule for the second quarter.
For Enoch Oil and Gas Field, also located in the North Sea, the company expects total development costs to increase to 100 mln stg, a 7.5 pct increase over the prior estimate made last November.

The Sydney and AIM-listed Roc Oil said Chinguetti-18 development well in Mauritania is ready for production and is being brought onstream.

The completion of the well, which currently has gross production of about 24,000 BOPD, was delayed due to "mechanical difficulties", the company added.

On Cliff Head Oil Field in Australia, the company said it is producing at a relatively steady rate, generally between 8,000 and 9,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD), from four of the six designated oil producers.

Roc Oil said it expects to undertake a planned workover at Cliff Head in April without major interruption to production.

newsdesk@afxnews.com kkb/pmi/slm

 

[GREENS]

Why is everyone so quiet on this stock? ROC is approaching a very interesting and potentially significant growth phase with the share price bouncing 22% of its 52 week low over the past month.

Apart from ROC's already producing oil fields Cliff head (37.5%), Zhao Dong (24.5%) and Chinguetti (3.25%) with ROC currently averaging 9000 BOPD:

Blane and Enoch although relatively small oil fields are coming into production over the next few months (Enoch should come on stream some time this week). Although roc only has a small 12.5% & 12% interest respectively, it provides some increased revenue streams for all their exploration and development activities going on.

Drilling is just about the commence in Onshore Angola, and no one needs to be told the massive potential this hydrocarbon province possesses. NOT saying roc is certain to find oil, but with a little bit of luck, the impact on roc would likely be significant. Surely someone has some views on the Angola exploration!!!!!!!

Apart from this there is the Beibu Gulf which ROC has so far drilled 2 wells at a 100% success rate, where drilling will recommence at the end of the year and development/investment decision will likely be given the final green light. (20% interest given CNOOC exercises its right to 51% participation).

Future development of the Zhao Dong (i.e. C4 area of the ZD block) where first oil is expected around the late 2008 (approx net roc: 1150 BOPD) + additional upside in the development of the extended reach again in the ZD block.

With plenty more exploration acreage in Equatorial Guinean, Deep water Madagascar, Mauritania, Offshore W.A and Zhao Dong.

This is no way intended to be taken as financial advice or change people’s views on the company in any way, but rather as a means of further discussion for those who follow the company. I personally believe roc is one of only a handful of undervalued companies running around on the ASX at the moment and I think the institutional investors have realized this as well with CBA and Merrill Lynch increasing their stake in the company in recent times. Below I have attached a rough valuation of Roc Oil based on the PV of expected cash flows over the next couple of years, however this does not take into account any exploration upside (such as Angola, Beibu Gulf etc) most assumptions are written in. The NPM increases from 07-08 because of lower expenditure on UK development, Cliff Head and Angola.

Personally I beleive I am currently paying nothing for the massive upside potenial that roc has on offer and have held for just over a year now with an average entery price of $2.95.

 

[BSD]

Good analysis and welcome aboard

I will check my numbers tomorrow to get a feel for your 07 and 08 production forecasts.

As for an opinion on Angola (!)

It looks like elephant country to me and some geo guys I know have been very keen to see some early results. The ROC guys have a great track record.

The deep discount share purchase plan to fund ZD took the steam out of ROC's rise - perhaps its time for a decent rally?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Why is everyone so quiet on this stock? ROC is approaching a very interesting and potentially significant growth phase with the share price bouncing 22% of its 52 week low over the past month.

Apart from ROC's already producing oil fields Cliff head (37.5%), Zhao Dong (24.5%) and Chinguetti (3.25%) with ROC currently averaging 9000 BOPD:

Blane and Enoch although relatively small oil fields are coming into production over the next few months (Enoch should come on stream some time this week). Although roc only has a small 12.5% & 12% interest respectively, it provides some increased revenue streams for all their exploration and development activities going on.

Drilling is just about the commence in Onshore Angola, and no one needs to be told the massive potential this hydrocarbon province possesses. NOT saying roc is certain to find oil, but with a little bit of luck, the impact on roc would likely be significant. Surely someone has some views on the Angola exploration!!!!!!!

Apart from this there is the Beibu Gulf which ROC has so far drilled 2 wells at a 100% success rate, where drilling will recommence at the end of the year and development/investment decision will likely be given the final green light. (20% interest given CNOOC exercises its right to 51% participation).

Future development of the Zhao Dong (i.e. C4 area of the ZD block) where first oil is expected around the late 2008 (approx net roc: 1150 BOPD) + additional upside in the development of the extended reach again in the ZD block.

With plenty more exploration acreage in Equatorial Guinean, Deep water Madagascar, Mauritania, Offshore W.A and Zhao Dong.

This is no way intended to be taken as financial advice or change people’s views on the company in any way, but rather as a means of further discussion for those who follow the company. I personally believe roc is one of only a handful of undervalued companies running around on the ASX at the moment and I think the institutional investors have realized this as well with CBA and Merrill Lynch increasing their stake in the company in recent times. Below I have attached a rough valuation of Roc Oil based on the PV of expected cash flows over the next couple of years, however this does not take into account any exploration upside (such as Angola, Beibu Gulf etc) most assumptions are written in. The NPM increases from 07-08 because of lower expenditure on UK development, Cliff Head and Angola.

Personally I beleive I am currently paying nothing for the massive upside potenial that roc has on offer and have held for just over a year now with an average entery price of $2.95.

Yes a very nice post Greens. Quality to be exact.
Are you looking at holding beyond 08?
BSD will do some crunching. Interesting to see the difference - if any.

Snake

 

[waz]

Great work Greens

What made you choose the exchange rate of 0.78 in 07 and 0.8 in 08.

My opinion is that it should be the other way around. looks like it could be awhile this year before the exchange rate drops below 80c.

It would be good to see your figures with a high/low exchange rate

 

[bigdog]

Todays "The Chartist" covers ROC which you wil find interesting

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/210507_roc/210507_roc.html

Laymans Analysis
21/5/07:
Since November last year ROC has been in a sideways holding pattern although technicians call this a "basing" pattern that is considered very bullish for longer term holders. This base was finally broken back on May 4th with a nice high volume breakout. We've now seen come consolidation and I think it only a matter of time before ROC takes its next leg higher. This small area of consolidation has been on declining volume, like a "breather" if you like, gaining momentum before moving higher. Today showed positive price and volume characteristics so the next break could be along any day. An aggressive trader could buy now with a stop back below $3.25. A more conservative trader would wait for a break up through $3.55 before entering and place a protective stop below $3.40. If this base is the start of something large, then longer term active investors should also consider positions here with stops back below $3.25 or lower should you want some wiggle room. I will make a formal recommendation for the Model Portfolio to BUY at xxxx. Place a stop at xxxx.

Technical Discussion
21/5/07:
The immediate Elliott Wave count suggests this minor wave-v will take prices through to $3.80 to $4.00. Its termination will also see the intermediate degree wave-3 complete but ultimately we should see ROC push toward $4.50 through June to July. The seasonal trend suggests the current sideways phase (Grey) will complete on or about May 24, just a few days away, then we'll see strength through to June 6. It is suggested that this will be the minor degree wave- v period that will take prices toward the $3.80 - $4.00 zone. From June 6 through June 28 we normally see a sideways non-directional period so this would fit the larger degree wave-4 formation. With wave-2 being sharp we should expect wave-4 to be complex and take some time. Elliott Wave and seasonals aside, there is significant support now at the breakout level of $3.27. Whilst it is possible that it may come back into play it would still be deemed a bullish scenario. To remain completely confident with the bullish outlook, especially from a timing perspective, I would not wish to see prices re-enter that basing pattern.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Bigdog,

Isn't that copyright material?

As I have been following ROC for a while I see it has some interest going into it today and yesterday after a cool off which I like to see in advances.

 

[CanOz]

Todays "The Chartist" covers ROC which you wil find interesting

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/210507_roc/210507_roc.html

Laymans Analysis
21/5/07:
Since November last year ROC has been in a sideways holding pattern although technicians call this a "basing" pattern that is considered very bullish for longer term holders. This base was finally broken back on May 4th with a nice high volume breakout. We've now seen come consolidation and I think it only a matter of time before ROC takes its next leg higher. This small area of consolidation has been on declining volume, like a "breather" if you like, gaining momentum before moving higher. Today showed positive price and volume characteristics so the next break could be along any day. An aggressive trader could buy now with a stop back below $3.25. A more conservative trader would wait for a break up through $3.55 before entering and place a protective stop below $3.40. If this base is the start of something large, then longer term active investors should also consider positions here with stops back below $3.25 or lower should you want some wiggle room. I will make a formal recommendation for the Model Portfolio to BUY at xxxx. Place a stop at xxxx.

Technical Discussion
21/5/07:
The immediate Elliott Wave count suggests this minor wave-v will take prices through to $3.80 to $4.00. Its termination will also see the intermediate degree wave-3 complete but ultimately we should see ROC push toward $4.50 through June to July. The seasonal trend suggests the current sideways phase (Grey) will complete on or about May 24, just a few days away, then we'll see strength through to June 6. It is suggested that this will be the minor degree wave- v period that will take prices toward the $3.80 - $4.00 zone. From June 6 through June 28 we normally see a sideways non-directional period so this would fit the larger degree wave-4 formation. With wave-2 being sharp we should expect wave-4 to be complex and take some time. Elliott Wave and seasonals aside, there is significant support now at the breakout level of $3.27. Whilst it is possible that it may come back into play it would still be deemed a bullish scenario. To remain completely confident with the bullish outlook, especially from a timing perspective, I would not wish to see prices re-enter that basing pattern.

I've seen Nick post a few of his reviews but this is the first time i've seen someone else post one!

I don't think he'll be happy about this.

Cheers,

 

[GreatPig]

With regard to copyrighted material, it's interesting that that only seems to be of concern when the author is a forum member.

On other forums I frequent, nearly everything that's quoted here from external articles would be deleted by the mods for copyright reasons.

GP

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

With regard to copyrighted material, it's interesting that that only seems to be of concern when the author is a forum member.

On other forums I frequent, nearly everything that's quoted here from external articles would be deleted by the mods for copyright reasons.

GP

Yes but he pays for that video and only the author has the right to post it.

What is your take on ROC GP? are you holding yet?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

No stress here. It was the free chart of the week so it can be distributed.





This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

Nick,

What a dandy generous thing - free chart of the week.
Good work. did you buy ROC by the way?