Probably look both smart and dumb just at different points in time.
Robusta fundamental, leveraged investments
- Thread starter robusta
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Probably look both smart and dumb just at different points in time.
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Robusta,
After perusing a couple of pages of this thread, I just realised something that you may not have considered. SRX.
Sirtex and HHL are rather tied together in performance, the CEO of Hunter-Hall mentioned the good performance of SRX as a large contributing factor in the funds overall performance in the half yearly report. To me it signalled that the people at HHL were getting desperate for performance, betting on some above market returns to improve their standing and therefore business. When a business starts taking on large 'bets', it is usually not a good sign.
The fact that the share price of HHL is at multy year lows, below the GFC bottom should send up alarm bells about it, not as something to load up on. If my analysis is close to correct, you have now added into the biggest loser in your portfolio, while taking profits on a winner like MTU. The total invested dollars is greatest in HHL, the worst performer.
Your decision to invest more in HHL while dumping MTU may turn out to be a good one, however one of the weakness of such outcomes is that it increases confidence that such actions are profitable (adding to losers and selling winners), therefore next time the same situation arises, same decision.
These type of actions lead to the possibility that when an overall market correction comes along, you will have most money invested in the biggest losers while the rest is in cash, of course in the need for performance, more gets invested in the losers. This then leads to phychological pressures about the losses if/when the market continues down. The typical selling of all positions often comes near the market bottom to relieve the pain.
My suggestion is that you review your entire investment strategy plus your original goals and aims. It is something we all need to do on a regular basis. We all make mistakes and the trick in investment is to keep the mistakes small.
After perusing a couple of pages of this thread, I just realised something that you may not have considered. SRX.
Sirtex and HHL are rather tied together in performance, the CEO of Hunter-Hall mentioned the good performance of SRX as a large contributing factor in the funds overall performance in the half yearly report. To me it signalled that the people at HHL were getting desperate for performance, betting on some above market returns to improve their standing and therefore business. When a business starts taking on large 'bets', it is usually not a good sign.
The fact that the share price of HHL is at multy year lows, below the GFC bottom should send up alarm bells about it, not as something to load up on. If my analysis is close to correct, you have now added into the biggest loser in your portfolio, while taking profits on a winner like MTU. The total invested dollars is greatest in HHL, the worst performer.
Your decision to invest more in HHL while dumping MTU may turn out to be a good one, however one of the weakness of such outcomes is that it increases confidence that such actions are profitable (adding to losers and selling winners), therefore next time the same situation arises, same decision.
These type of actions lead to the possibility that when an overall market correction comes along, you will have most money invested in the biggest losers while the rest is in cash, of course in the need for performance, more gets invested in the losers. This then leads to phychological pressures about the losses if/when the market continues down. The typical selling of all positions often comes near the market bottom to relieve the pain.
My suggestion is that you review your entire investment strategy plus your original goals and aims. It is something we all need to do on a regular basis. We all make mistakes and the trick in investment is to keep the mistakes small.
You are correct the HHL funds largest holding is SRX, by some coincidence MTU is also one of the largest positions. HHL have often in the past taken large bets when they see something they really like the value of. HHL at one stage held about 30% of SRX recently as the sp has risen and following the prompting of the new CEO that holding has been sold down to a bit over 20%.
Here is a video of Peter Hall talking about the investment in 2009.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K83mDZFmYHM
This is not something I like to do the strategy calls for letting winners run while cutting losers short (often after holding them for a while to check they are really losers
) Having said that MTU had become the largest position but I think the sp had run a bit further than the value of the company. Nothing had changed from my initial thesis on HHL and as the most undervalued business I could find that I was comfortable to invest in more than happy to make HHL the recipient of the largest slice of my capital.Thank you very much for your thoughtful post brty, you are correct a regular review is a excellent idea, I think I should pay particular attention to position sizing.
EOFY is here so... another PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Capital gain this financial year rises to $2311.59 subtracting this from the previous years loss $3095.16 gives a negative total of $783.57, slowly getting my trading back to break even.
So far paid the bank $1930.30 in interest and charges when this is added to last years total of $2303.28 this brings the total I have paid to $4233.58
Received this financial year $1584.97 in dividends plus $615.07 franking credits when we add to last years dividends $960.33 and franking credits $383.34
The total is $2545.30 in dividends plus $998.41 franking credits.
So that is a loss of $2471.85
Better have a look at where the open positions are (including brokerage)
Open Positions
Bought:
649 x MTU @ $2.62 = $1711.99 08/08/11
65 x COH @ $45.85 = $3000.20 30/09/11
1023 x NVT @ $2.93 = $3017.34 02/02/12
972 x TGA @ $1.505 =$1482.81 05/04/12
1074 x TGA @$1.395 =$1518.18 26/04/12
1912 x DTL @1.045 =$2017.99 18/05/12
278 x MTU @$2.66 =$739.48 21/05/12 (rights issue)
2089 x DTL @$0.92 =$1941.83 18/06/12
1412x EZL @ $1.055 = $1509.61 17/07/12
1660 xIPP @ $0.915 = $1538.85 14/11/12
867 x TGA @ $1.745 = $1532.87 20/11/12
1182 xHHL @ $2.85 = $3388.65 23/11/12
717 xHHL @ $2.83 = $2049.06 11/03/13
1910 x IPP @ $0.785 = $1519.30 22/04/13
150 x SRX @ $9.74 = $1480.95 24/04/13
638 xHHL @ $2.35 = $1519.25 30/05/13
27 x COH @ $56.23 = $1538.15 03/06/2013
Subtotal $ 31,506.51
Current Portfolio Market Value
92 x COH @$61.71 =$5677.32 +25.10%
4001 x DTL @$1.075 =$4301.08 +8.62%
1412 x EZL @ $1.00 = $1412.00 -6.47%
2537 x HHL @ $1.73 =$4389.01 -36.91%
3570 x IPP @ $0.75 = $2677.50 -12.45%
927 x MTU @ $5.85 = $5422.95 +121.21%
1023 x NVT @ $5.77 = $2902.71 +95.63%
150 x SRX @$11.98 =$1797.00 +21.34%
2913 x TGA @ $2.03 =$5913.39 +30.43%
Subtotal = $37,492.96 +19.00%
This brings paper profit considering the open positions to $3514.60
Portfolio market value $37,492.96 minus line of credit drawn of $29,278.63 equals $8214.33 equity.
The $50/week I am throwing at the line of credit now totals $4750.00
Credit available $721.37
Capital gain this financial year rises to $2311.59 subtracting this from the previous years loss $3095.16 gives a negative total of $783.57, slowly getting my trading back to break even.
So far paid the bank $1930.30 in interest and charges when this is added to last years total of $2303.28 this brings the total I have paid to $4233.58
Received this financial year $1584.97 in dividends plus $615.07 franking credits when we add to last years dividends $960.33 and franking credits $383.34
The total is $2545.30 in dividends plus $998.41 franking credits.
So that is a loss of $2471.85
Better have a look at where the open positions are (including brokerage)
Open Positions
Bought:
649 x MTU @ $2.62 = $1711.99 08/08/11
65 x COH @ $45.85 = $3000.20 30/09/11
1023 x NVT @ $2.93 = $3017.34 02/02/12
972 x TGA @ $1.505 =$1482.81 05/04/12
1074 x TGA @$1.395 =$1518.18 26/04/12
1912 x DTL @1.045 =$2017.99 18/05/12
278 x MTU @$2.66 =$739.48 21/05/12 (rights issue)
2089 x DTL @$0.92 =$1941.83 18/06/12
1412x EZL @ $1.055 = $1509.61 17/07/12
1660 xIPP @ $0.915 = $1538.85 14/11/12
867 x TGA @ $1.745 = $1532.87 20/11/12
1182 xHHL @ $2.85 = $3388.65 23/11/12
717 xHHL @ $2.83 = $2049.06 11/03/13
1910 x IPP @ $0.785 = $1519.30 22/04/13
150 x SRX @ $9.74 = $1480.95 24/04/13
638 xHHL @ $2.35 = $1519.25 30/05/13
27 x COH @ $56.23 = $1538.15 03/06/2013
Subtotal $ 31,506.51
Current Portfolio Market Value
92 x COH @$61.71 =$5677.32 +25.10%
4001 x DTL @$1.075 =$4301.08 +8.62%
1412 x EZL @ $1.00 = $1412.00 -6.47%
2537 x HHL @ $1.73 =$4389.01 -36.91%
3570 x IPP @ $0.75 = $2677.50 -12.45%
927 x MTU @ $5.85 = $5422.95 +121.21%
1023 x NVT @ $5.77 = $2902.71 +95.63%
150 x SRX @$11.98 =$1797.00 +21.34%
2913 x TGA @ $2.03 =$5913.39 +30.43%
Subtotal = $37,492.96 +19.00%
This brings paper profit considering the open positions to $3514.60
Portfolio market value $37,492.96 minus line of credit drawn of $29,278.63 equals $8214.33 equity.
The $50/week I am throwing at the line of credit now totals $4750.00
Credit available $721.37
Here goes with some percentages;
The line of credit has $29,278.63 drawn from it and I have put $4750.00 of my own cash in, the realized loss from the closed positions is $2471.85, when looking at the open positions however I have made a paper gain of $3514.60 and have $8214.33 in equity in the portfolio.
If we look at the return on the total capital invested ( $29,278.63 + $4750.00) there is a realized loss of -8.06% but a paper profit of 10.33%.
If we look only on the capital I have contributed ($4750.00) then we have a realized loss of -57.72% and a paper profit of 73.99%
Probably more than a little silly to look at CAGR after two years, the first year for this portfolio was a shocker while this second one has been a little better. When I started this portfolio the All ords @ 25/07/11 was 4603.80 today it is 4775.40 so despite all my mistakes it seems I have done a little better than the market.
The line of credit has $29,278.63 drawn from it and I have put $4750.00 of my own cash in, the realized loss from the closed positions is $2471.85, when looking at the open positions however I have made a paper gain of $3514.60 and have $8214.33 in equity in the portfolio.
If we look at the return on the total capital invested ( $29,278.63 + $4750.00) there is a realized loss of -8.06% but a paper profit of 10.33%.
If we look only on the capital I have contributed ($4750.00) then we have a realized loss of -57.72% and a paper profit of 73.99%
Probably more than a little silly to look at CAGR after two years, the first year for this portfolio was a shocker while this second one has been a little better. When I started this portfolio the All ords @ 25/07/11 was 4603.80 today it is 4775.40 so despite all my mistakes it seems I have done a little better than the market.
Comparing the portfolio from twelve months ago;
Current Portfolio Position
65 x COH @$65.84 =$4279.60
4001 x DTL @$1.11 =$4441.11
6250 x KAM @$0.28 = $1750.00
1393 x MTU @ $3.36 = $4680.48
1023 x NVT @ $4.34 = $4439.82
1373 x OKN @$1.05 = $1441.65
4000 x PET @$0.80 =$3200.00
916 x PRV @$0.64 = $586.24
1685 x SWL @$0.995=$1676.58
2046 x TGA @ $1.46=$2987.16
Subtotal = $29,482.64
With how it looks today;
Current Portfolio Market Value
92 x COH @$61.71 =$5677.32
4001 x DTL @$1.075 =$4301.08
1412 x EZL @ $1.00 = $1412.00
2537 x HHL @ $1.73 =$4389.01
3570 x IPP @ $0.75 = $2677.50
927 x MTU @ $5.85 = $5422.95
1023 x NVT @ $5.77 = $2902.71
150 x SRX @$11.98 =$1797.00
2913 x TGA @ $2.03 =$5913.39
Subtotal = $37,492.96
The businesses I consider core holdings are on the whole doing OK. There has been no change in the DTL and NVT positions while I have found the opportunity to add to the COH and TGA positions, while taking some profits from MTU.
Now to some mistakes, I sold KAM for a small profit, the 52 week high was $0.72 and yesterdays close was $0.41
Sold PET for a small profit because I did not like the position they took in JC Penney anyway not long after the NTA went up and the manager announced a return of capital, so I missed out on about another 30% gain.
Sold PRV for a very small profit, not long after they were taken over and the discount to NTA vanished along with a opportunity of another 30% gain for me.
We will have to wait to see if this is a mistake but I have HHL has the largest allocation of my capital, that holding is trading a touch under 37% less than the price I paid for it.
Current Portfolio Position
65 x COH @$65.84 =$4279.60
4001 x DTL @$1.11 =$4441.11
6250 x KAM @$0.28 = $1750.00
1393 x MTU @ $3.36 = $4680.48
1023 x NVT @ $4.34 = $4439.82
1373 x OKN @$1.05 = $1441.65
4000 x PET @$0.80 =$3200.00
916 x PRV @$0.64 = $586.24
1685 x SWL @$0.995=$1676.58
2046 x TGA @ $1.46=$2987.16
Subtotal = $29,482.64
With how it looks today;
Current Portfolio Market Value
92 x COH @$61.71 =$5677.32
4001 x DTL @$1.075 =$4301.08
1412 x EZL @ $1.00 = $1412.00
2537 x HHL @ $1.73 =$4389.01
3570 x IPP @ $0.75 = $2677.50
927 x MTU @ $5.85 = $5422.95
1023 x NVT @ $5.77 = $2902.71
150 x SRX @$11.98 =$1797.00
2913 x TGA @ $2.03 =$5913.39
Subtotal = $37,492.96
The businesses I consider core holdings are on the whole doing OK. There has been no change in the DTL and NVT positions while I have found the opportunity to add to the COH and TGA positions, while taking some profits from MTU.
Now to some mistakes, I sold KAM for a small profit, the 52 week high was $0.72 and yesterdays close was $0.41
Sold PET for a small profit because I did not like the position they took in JC Penney anyway not long after the NTA went up and the manager announced a return of capital, so I missed out on about another 30% gain.
Sold PRV for a very small profit, not long after they were taken over and the discount to NTA vanished along with a opportunity of another 30% gain for me.
We will have to wait to see if this is a mistake but I have HHL has the largest allocation of my capital, that holding is trading a touch under 37% less than the price I paid for it.
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Robusta,
The numbers do not look correct, so I added your current portfolio. I get a total of $34,492.96 not $37,492.96.
Just noticed, your total for nvt 1023 shares at $5.77 = $2,902.71 not the correct $5,902.77, the total then adds up.
It is important to keep the little details in the spreadsheet accurate.
Looking from the outside, you have a profit of $3,514.60, yet if you had just saved the $50/week you would have $4,750, is this correct? It has cost $1,200 to get a little education in the real market. This is fairly cheap compared to most.
If I can be so bold to make a couple of comments. Firstly apart from the obvious mistake of having the largest number of dollars invested in the biggest loser, HHL there is also the position in EZL.
EZL went up by 30% in a short period of time, 7 months after you purchase it, yet it is still on your books as a loss now. There is a saying in investment about never letting a profit turn into a loss. This seems to be what you have done here. Similar with IPP, though not as prominent.
From the bleachers I see that you have added twice to the biggest loser HHL and not at all to the biggest winners in NTV +MTU (the second purchase in MTU only raised the invested funds to ~$2500 and at similar price to the first purchase). The amount of cash invested in the biggest winners is less than half that invested in the biggest loser. This pattern does not a make profitable portfolio.
Your stock selection and timing for entry has been pretty sound in hindsight, yet your trading of these stocks could have led to a vastly different performance. Have used your existing entry scenarios and tested some different trading scenarios of the same portfolio, such as adding to winners and cutting losers, or running a trailing stop loss and re-entry at some lower prices (percentage, support, whatever)??
There is always more homework with investing...
The numbers do not look correct, so I added your current portfolio. I get a total of $34,492.96 not $37,492.96.
Just noticed, your total for nvt 1023 shares at $5.77 = $2,902.71 not the correct $5,902.77, the total then adds up.
It is important to keep the little details in the spreadsheet accurate.
Looking from the outside, you have a profit of $3,514.60, yet if you had just saved the $50/week you would have $4,750, is this correct? It has cost $1,200 to get a little education in the real market. This is fairly cheap compared to most.
If I can be so bold to make a couple of comments. Firstly apart from the obvious mistake of having the largest number of dollars invested in the biggest loser, HHL there is also the position in EZL.
EZL went up by 30% in a short period of time, 7 months after you purchase it, yet it is still on your books as a loss now. There is a saying in investment about never letting a profit turn into a loss. This seems to be what you have done here. Similar with IPP, though not as prominent.
From the bleachers I see that you have added twice to the biggest loser HHL and not at all to the biggest winners in NTV +MTU (the second purchase in MTU only raised the invested funds to ~$2500 and at similar price to the first purchase). The amount of cash invested in the biggest winners is less than half that invested in the biggest loser. This pattern does not a make profitable portfolio.
Your stock selection and timing for entry has been pretty sound in hindsight, yet your trading of these stocks could have led to a vastly different performance. Have used your existing entry scenarios and tested some different trading scenarios of the same portfolio, such as adding to winners and cutting losers, or running a trailing stop loss and re-entry at some lower prices (percentage, support, whatever)??
There is always more homework with investing...
It is not a spreadsheet but only a balance sheet written on the back of a beer coaster, thank you for spotting the typo however.
That profit of $3,514.60 is on top of the $4,750 I have contributed to the portfolio. The portfolio return is a little under 74% over the two years.
Looks like I have made a error somewhere in the balance sheet, I have $8241.33 equity, if I minus the $4750 contributed the profit should be $3491.33.I am not so sure EZL is a loss, the shares have not been sold yet and I am fairy sure the dividends will cover the cost of my capital. The fact that the share price went up 30% makes little or no difference to me. COH, NVT, MTU, DTL, TGA, EZL and even HHL have all gone up around 30% at one time or another some have increased in price since then and some have fallen. This is not a trend following strategy the difference in price to my estimate of the value of the business determines the decisions to buy, sell or hold.
Right or wrong HHL was the most undervalued stock I could find so more capital has been allocated in that direction while NVT and MTU look a little overvalued to me hence holding NVT and and taking some profits in MTU seemed to be the best decision.
It would be nice to know in advance which purchases will be the biggest winners so I could allocate more capital in that direction.
Stop losses will not work well with this strategy, and it does not make sense to me to buy more of something because the price has increased I would be more inclined to buy more if the price decreases.
Another little milestone 12 months ago I established a position in EZL, this is my post from back then.
So including brokerage $1509.61 when I bought it it was ex dividend, this year it goes ex dividend tomorrow. So the only money returned to me is $21.18 in dividends.
If we take today's closing price of $1.035 the market is valuing my holding at $1461.42. Looks like the price has gone nowhere in the last year, the chart tells another story.
NEW INVESTMENT
EZL - Euroz Limited
Bought 1412 @ $1.055 = $1489.66
Well I just like the way these guys allocate capital, the holdings in OZG & WIC are a bonus, also good leverage to any possible rebound in world growth.
Fully invested now, need some dividends if I am going to buy anymore - lucky for me tis the season.
So including brokerage $1509.61 when I bought it it was ex dividend, this year it goes ex dividend tomorrow. So the only money returned to me is $21.18 in dividends.
If we take today's closing price of $1.035 the market is valuing my holding at $1461.42. Looks like the price has gone nowhere in the last year, the chart tells another story.
Attachments
Just a little house keeping today, there has been a slight change in my personal financial situation so from today I will be contributing the grand sum of $75.00 per week to this portfolio.
Another milestone to the portfolio today it has been two years since MTU was added as an investment. Here is my post from twelve months ago.
Seems I have more confidence in their ability to execute on acquisitions now than I did a year ago. Anyway I took some profits earlier this year.
In the last twelve months MTU has paid me $264.67 in dividends plus $113.43 in franking credits.
So to sum up $3680.73 invested minus $2827.31 taken back out through profit taken minus $465.37 in dividends received means I have recouped all but $388.05 of my original investment.
We could work out percentage returns but those would mean little in this situation.
For what it is worth if we take today's closing price of $6.45 the market thinks my remaining holding is worth $5979.15, the dividend should increase this year as well.
Happy days
Another milestone to the portfolio today it has been two years since MTU was added as an investment. Here is my post from twelve months ago.
Nice little milestone for this portfolio today, managed to hold on to a investment in a company for 12 months.
Really should include brokerage in the costing so in total $3680.73 has been invested in this company, no dividend has been paid yet on the converted shares but two $0.09 dividends have been received for a return of $200.70 this gives me a yield of ~5.45% plus $86.02 in franking credits. The cost of my capital through the line of credit is currently 6% so that is a fail on that first hurdle.
To use some ratings agency speak I currently have this company on a "negative watch", after the major acquisition in May I understand debt will be higher, ROE and EPS will be lower for the most recent reporting period. In the absence of any surprises in the Annual report I will be watching the interim and following full year report to see debt being paid down and returns increasing. Before May I would not have considered selling below ~$4.25 now $3.80 + would give me something to think about.
For what it is worth looking at todays closing price of $3.44 the market is offering buy my interest in MTU back for $4791.92
Seems I have more confidence in their ability to execute on acquisitions now than I did a year ago. Anyway I took some profits earlier this year.
In the last twelve months MTU has paid me $264.67 in dividends plus $113.43 in franking credits.
So to sum up $3680.73 invested minus $2827.31 taken back out through profit taken minus $465.37 in dividends received means I have recouped all but $388.05 of my original investment.
We could work out percentage returns but those would mean little in this situation.
For what it is worth if we take today's closing price of $6.45 the market thinks my remaining holding is worth $5979.15, the dividend should increase this year as well.
Happy days
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Have got (quite) a few of those in my SMSF robusta
Good on you I don't have many - yet.
Hi All,
Haven't posted for some time but thought i'd ask the question now given CGF's positive FY reporting today. About 12 months ago I mentioned it on here and there was some brief conversation about CGF. Was wondering if So_Cynical, odds-on or robusta ended up grabbing some?
I'm disappointed now that I didn't grab more, looks like they have the increased capital requirement covered with ease even though they are still in the transitional period and they continue to steadily increase EPS, dividends and will begin franking next year. Couple this with the buyback that continues to make about 9.5cps a year difference and you end up with a steadily increasing share price.
Market movements over the last 6-9 months has certainly helped their Fund Manager side as well. So did anyone else climb aboard the CGF train 12 months ago?
Haven't posted for some time but thought i'd ask the question now given CGF's positive FY reporting today. About 12 months ago I mentioned it on here and there was some brief conversation about CGF. Was wondering if So_Cynical, odds-on or robusta ended up grabbing some?
I'm disappointed now that I didn't grab more, looks like they have the increased capital requirement covered with ease even though they are still in the transitional period and they continue to steadily increase EPS, dividends and will begin franking next year. Couple this with the buyback that continues to make about 9.5cps a year difference and you end up with a steadily increasing share price.
Market movements over the last 6-9 months has certainly helped their Fund Manager side as well. So did anyone else climb aboard the CGF train 12 months ago?
One of the main criticisms I have copped and very deservedly so while posting this portfolio from over trading. My last trade (a top up of Cochlear) was on the 3/6/13. At my next TA meeting (Traders Anonymous) meeting I will have to own up to,
Investment Reduced
Sold 300 x MTU $6.25 = $1855.05
I still really like this business, the reoccurring revenues and growth are a thing of beauty but this is the second time profits have been taken from this business. The reason MTU has been picked on twice is I think it is the holding most overvalued with the least competitive advantage in the portfolio.
Investment Reduced
Sold 300 x MTU $6.25 = $1855.05
I still really like this business, the reoccurring revenues and growth are a thing of beauty but this is the second time profits have been taken from this business. The reason MTU has been picked on twice is I think it is the holding most overvalued with the least competitive advantage in the portfolio.
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Considering nobody is an omniscient investor and will have losses to offset – that’s potentially a very misleading use of a quote.
"Continual trimming will turn your money tree into a bonsai." - Craft.
MTU's total return chart.
Robusta
I can’t argue with this as a reason for switching to a better alternative.
But I have one question and it doesn’t just relate to this instance and its one I ask myself all the time.
Is your analysis driving your action or is the gut feel inclination to act a particular way driving the analysis?
Cheers
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Sorry about that! Just trying to add to the debate without first becoming a PHD!
Not so terribly cheep Bonsai!!
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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That's not exactly accurate.
You CAN actually go broke taking a profit.
Thank you Craft that is a excellent question, I have been thinking about it for a few days and I'm still not sure of the answer.
This particular decision is more a portfolio management decision. There is a little illiquid microcap that I have a open buy order in the market...
