RHK - Red Hawk Mining

indeck · 26 November 2011

Until MMK pay out the current shareholder there are numerous things which can go wrong in the process which could terminate the offer. The obvious one is it doesnt pass the shareholders vote. This is my first take over too, I have been considering buying a bit more while the sp is under 30c

TMC93 · 26 November 2011

Ok i see, i personally cant see many reasons to reject the offer but some others might have good reasons. I think i read somewhere they need %75 shareholder approval gor the acquisition to go ahead. Lets hope it does

doctorstock · 28 November 2011

I have owned the stock for 2 years and have taken profits as I am happy to have finally have made something on this stock. Cash in the bank is what its all about.

Boggo · 28 November 2011

doctorstock said:
I have owned the stock for 2 years and have taken profits as I am happy to have finally have made something on this stock. Cash in the bank is what its all about.

Exactly, well done, take the profit and move onto the next candidate from the remaining 1900+ stocks that are out there otherwise you end up crying about what could have been on the PEN or RED thread.

If it dips and runs again then it may be a candidate again.

Kremmen · 29 November 2011

TMC93 said:
if i own these stocks, and the acquisition goes ahead, why would i sell at 27 cents when MMK offered 30 per share?

Apart from risk factors, the suggested timeline includes payment in March next year. For many investors, the question is: Can I make 10% in 4 months elsewhere?

Looking at it the other way around, if you want that rate of return and consider the takeover certain, it would make sense to buy as many FMS shares as you can afford and wait until the payout.

TMC93 · 29 November 2011

Kremmen said:
Apart from risk factors, the suggested timeline includes payment in March next year. For many investors, the question is: Can I make 10% in 4 months elsewhere?

Looking at it the other way around, if you want that rate of return and consider the takeover certain, it would make sense to buy as many FMS shares as you can afford and wait until the payout.

Thanks for the explanation, i didnt realise it took so long to go through the whole process. I think i'll take my profits and put the capital back in elsewhere.

TMC93 · 30 November 2011

Took my profits at 27.5 cents yesterday, had a great sleep too

indeck · 30 November 2011

ive been holding FMS since about feb when the sp was 17c, bascially doubled what i hold now after picking up more at .27. i feel that the takeover doesnt really have much risk associated to it and the chance of rio or another taking a punt is definately there.

Boggo · 1 December 2011

TMC93 said:
Took my profits at 27.5 cents yesterday, had a great sleep too

Well done, good timing too with today's news.
They seem to think that it will have no impact on the deal, an opportunity to re-enter may appear down the track, a few large volume sellers in the queue at the moment.

skc · 1 December 2011

Boggo said:
Well done, good timing too with today's news.
They seem to think that it will have no impact on the deal, an opportunity to re-enter may appear down the track, a few large volume sellers in the queue at the moment.

Bit hard to launch a takeover when your assets are frozen!

I couldn't see any explanation for the reason of the court order?

Was tempted to take a position a few days back but now I will just wait and see.

McLovin · 1 December 2011

skc said:
I couldn't see any explanation for the reason of the court order?

ENRC has a contract to supply iron-ore to MMK but MMK recently said they wouldn't be taking the contracted amount in the 4th quarter. I'm not sure why the asset freeze is so large, or why they are using Australia as the jurisdiction. It might have something to do with their shareholding in FMG, purely speculation on my part. I imagine trying to get a court order in Russia is a tougher task, especially if MMK is well connected.

Boggo · 1 December 2011

skc said:
Bit hard to launch a takeover when your assets are forzen!

Agree. It would be an ideal opportunity for another bidder to put their hand up now.
There is/was one seller offloading 2 mill shares at 26.5.

I sold at 28 and went to MLX when it broke though 25c, so far it seems like the right move, time will tell.

Dang · 6 January 2012

I was getting some cash together with intent to buy FMS and the MMK offer came through the day before my cash did.

Burger.

I can't think for the life of me why shareholders would accept a 30c offer for shares that brokers are valuing around the 40-50c mark.

TMC93 · 7 January 2012

I was more than happy to take a 55% profit on FML. Considering it was my largest holding and my aim was for a 8% return. I learnt the hard way to value shares yourself, most brokerage companies value FML at 30 cents and they are still at 5. I guess another factor contributing to me selling was the fact that i didnt buy at the bottom and they had really underperformed for the most part of the year (then again so did the market).

skc · 4 April 2012

Never a dull moment with this lot. Now some random small shareholder got a court injunction on the takeover. Court hearing near end of April so this will be in flux between now and then.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/03/mmk-flinders-idUSL6E8F30HE20120403

On the surface you'd think that a single small holder should not have such power. Think a little deeper there's got to be something bigger than that behind this. May be another Oligarch wants to play some game or something.

Was very tempted to enter at 24 but really feel that I have no competitive advantage when it comes to understanding how Russians operate. I did previously buy at 28 and sold at 30 in my little takeover arb portfolio and glad I don't have to worry too much.

McLovin · 4 April 2012

skc said:
Never a dull moment with this lot. Now some random small shareholder got a court injunction on the takeover. Court hearing near end of April so this will be in flux between now and then.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/03/mmk-flinders-idUSL6E8F30HE20120403

On the surface you'd think that a single small holder should not have such power. Think a little deeper there's got to be something bigger than that behind this. May be another Oligarch wants to play some game or something.

Woah, imagine we had those laws in Australia!

She's definately connected up. I'd give this a wide-berth.

indeck · 5 April 2012

i got out at .245 yesterday, definitely not as good as .3 but what can you do. I had been considering re-entering but maybe I should quit while im ahead. Annoyingly I was about 3 orders behind my .3 sell being filled a few days ago.

skc · 11 April 2012

Didn't look like a terrible announcement to me but the share printed a 21.5c low.

The announcement said they want to block the injunction (a positive) at an earlier court hearing (another positive).

They also postponed related finance facility which may be what's spooked the market, but you'd expect that if the deal is going to be delayed.

If the deal goes ahead at 30c it's a pretty good return at 22c... but with hedge funds running for exit I have no idea what the expected risk/reward is.

burglar · 11 April 2012

Sold some! Kept some!

Kremmen · 25 May 2012

I thought it was best to bail out at 27c rather than wait for the 30c. (... that never came.) Bought at 14.5c, so 86% gain in 23 days, which was my best pick ever.

Seems crazy to me that FMS bottomed at 12c today before ending at 13c. If the legal obstructions go away, they'll be worth 30c. If not, maybe they'll drift down to 10c again. Seems like a really good bet.

I'm holding FMS again.

RHK - Red Hawk Mining

indeck

TMC93

doctorstock

Boggo

Kremmen

TMC93

TMC93

indeck

Boggo

skc

Goldmember

McLovin

Boggo

Dang

TMC93

skc

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McLovin

indeck

skc

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burglar

Kremmen

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