Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[wonderrman]

More comments on DCB .... http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/roubini-reflections-on-latest-suckers.html

 

[MRC & Co]

I bet your bottom dollar that as soon as we get some very negative news we will revert back to the down trend.

You would bet my bottom dollar, or your own?

Very negative news pushing us into a down trend, like the worst Japanese GDP figures since 74? Record breaking US unemployment figures? Or diabolical, completely unexpected, Australian GDP figures? All of which didn't cause any kind of sustained downtrend, and were actually bought up.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Originally Posted by wonderrman
I bet your bottom dollar that as soon as we get some very negative news we will revert back to the down trend.

Yeah funny that. :

Re: Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

I can be honest and say I don`t know if the low of this bear market is in.Completely unbiased because I have no financial investment in the immediate outcome.

 

[wonderrman]

ou would bet my bottom dollar, or your own?

Very negative news pushing us into a down trend, like the worst Japanese GDP figures since 74? Record breaking US unemployment figures? Or diabolical, completely unexpected, Australian GDP figures? All of which didn't cause any kind of sustained downtrend, and were actually bought up.

I would bet my own money at a blink of an idea.

By downtrend I do not mean anything technical at all. I simply mean that people will **** themselves again because they've had false hopes over where the marketing is heading and will dump shares again.

 

[Glen48]

Helicopter Ben tells us it will all be over by Xmas so sit back and relax ...unless he is wrong..........again.

 

[MRC & Co]

I would bet my own money at a blink of an idea.

By downtrend I do not mean anything technical at all. I simply mean that people will **** themselves again because they've had false hopes over where the marketing is heading and will dump shares again.

But bad news has been bought, so why would it sell off this time?

And the second paragraph does mean technicals, it is just human psychology, which is what you are mentioning.

 

[wonderrman]

But bad news has been bought, so why would it sell off this time?

And the second paragraph does mean technicals, it is just human psychology, which is what you are mentioning.

Mate are you dellusional? You think every piece of bad news has been factored into this market place? I'm not explaining myself again because I have done it enough on this thread.

Read the information I have posted!! It may be long but it will give you some insight into the crisis and how much worse it can get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1226560260.php

What I am suggesting here is that the whole US dollar being the reserve currency of the world will change! It caused the problem because of the massive trade deficit it caused when people settled their money. This left a **** load of money for the banks to lend out to consumers. This caused the debt problem, along with governments intervening with the market place through interest rates.

When this happens do you think the market would have factored it in?

When the US dollar is worthless because they've printed so much of it and inflation peeks its head out do you think the markets would have factored it in?

When commercial vacancies rates increase by a tonne do you think that will be factored in? What about unemployment possibily reaching 20%?

I highly doubt it and Mr. Market will again dish out a beating. Don't get sucked in! It sounds like you have.

 

[CanOz]

ooooh, this is getting interesting =pulls up a chair and waits for Mr.C's barrage=

CanOz

 

[MRC & Co]

Mate are you dellusional? You think every piece of bad news has been factored into this market place? I'm not explaining myself again because I have done it enough on this thread.

Read the information I have posted!! It may be long but it will give you some insight into the crisis and how much worse it can get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1226560260.php

What I am suggesting here is that the whole US dollar being the reserve currency of the world will change! It caused the problem because of the massive trade deficit it caused when people settled their money. This left a **** load of money for the banks to lend out to consumers. This caused the debt problem, along with governments intervening with the market place through interest rates.

When this happens do you think the market would have factored it in?

When the US dollar is worthless because they've printed so much of it and inflation peeks its head out do you think the markets would have factored it in?

When commercial vacancies rates increase by a tonne do you think that will be factored in? What about unemployment possibily reaching 20%?

I highly doubt it and Mr. Market will again dish out a beating. Don't get sucked in! It sounds like you have.

lol.

So the US is going to have staggering unemployment and yet inflation will be peeking it's head out?

How are you trading this, long gold, short USD with no stop? Or are you waiting for this 'bad news' so you can short equities without a stop? Did you go short the Australian GDP figures?

ha ha, no barrage Can, sorry for the lack of fireworks, just interested to know how this will all be traded, considering all this bad news actually made a market rally.......... Wonder if wonder himself sold all that news? Again,

 

[CanOz]

lol.

So the US is going to have staggering unemployment and yet inflation will be peeking it's head out?

How are you trading this, long gold, short USD with no stop? Or are you waiting for this 'bad news' so you can short equities without a stop? Did you go short the Australian GDP figures?

ha ha, no barrage Can, sorry for the lack of fireworks, just interested to know how this will all be traded, considering all this bad news actually made a market rally.......... Wonder if wonder himself sold all that news? Again,

I can relate, i learned the hard way two years ago, shorting the crap out of everything because i didn't like the way things looked....i was right of course, just 12 months early! lol!

Never fight the market.

CanOz

 

[Cartman]

Mate are you dellusional? You think every piece of bad news has been factored into this market place? I'm not explaining myself again because I have done it enough on this thread.

Read the information I have posted!! It may be long but it will give you some insight into the crisis and how much worse it can get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1226560260.php

What I am suggesting here is that the whole US dollar being the reserve currency of the world will change! It caused the problem because of the massive trade deficit it caused when people settled their money. This left a **** load of money for the banks to lend out to consumers. This caused the debt problem, along with governments intervening with the market place through interest rates.

When this happens do you think the market would have factored it in?

When the US dollar is worthless because they've printed so much of it and inflation peeks its head out do you think the markets would have factored it in?

When commercial vacancies rates increase by a tonne do you think that will be factored in? What about unemployment possibily reaching 20%?

I highly doubt it and Mr. Market will again dish out a beating. Don't get sucked in! It sounds like you have.

----- how old did u say/pretend u were again wonder man/boy ---

big ego for a young man ---- not a good mix imo ----

 

[wonderrman]

just interested to know how this will all be traded, considering all this bad news actually made a market rally.......... Wonder if wonder himself sold all that news? Again,

What caused this rally was a leaked memo saying that Citigroup was profitable. Do you really think that this is true? Who would believe these people on Wall Street who have lied and lied and caused so much grief over the past 18 months. They lied about their dividend before and then they cut it. I will wait to the Q1 results come out and then see how Citigroup are going, and how the markets are in general.

I have all readdy said it here before, we have seen a rally back in November '08 based on false hopes and perceptations, the investor was put back in its place by the market.

I never said that the US unemployment and inflation will occur at the same time. Governments can not get away with producing lots and lots and lots of money at free will. A systemic rise in prices is caused by a decline in the purchasing power of the currency - not the rise in the price of goods or services. Now, I think the government is printing money at amazing rates, arn't they? Inflation will bite us on the bum at some stage.

How are you trading this, long gold, short USD with no stop? Or are you waiting for this 'bad news' so you can short equities without a stop? Did you go short the Australian GDP figures?

Well I'm young and don't have much capital to play with. I am simply looking at short term trading based on patterns, the trend is your friend. Eg: BHP, bought at $27.81 at the 6th of March. Will see how it goes and once it reaches $33 (which it should based on the charts) I will sell. If I had enough capital then yes I would hold physical gold.

No I did not go short the GDP figures. Shorting anything in crazy markets like this is stupid unless you know something that everybody else doesn't. And yes I do use a stop when I trade, if you didn't you would be a fool.

 

[wonderrman]

big ego for a young man ---- not a good mix imo ----

So what I say comes back to my age ... it is not ego but fact cartman.

 

[CanOz]

Wonderrman, no one is really arguing with your facts, they're clear. The question is, whether its a bounce or a new trend, and clearly there a few here that actually agree with you but are finding this to be a tradeable bounce. Myself included.

Cheers,



CanOz

 

[wonderrman]

Wonderrman, no one is really arguing with your facts, they're clear. The question is, whether its a bounce or a new trend, and clearly there a few here that actually agree with you but are finding this to be a tradeable bounce. Myself included.

Cheers,
CanOz

Thank you, it felt like I was arguing against the whole world. Sorry if I came across as rude which I probably did. It is indeed tradeable, as I said I have open positions even though I think we're in the ****.

 

[MRC & Co]

No, don't think Citigroup caused this rally. US had fallen dramatically within a short time-frame and sentiment was overly negative. Many were short and longs were covered, time for a short squeeze without enough longs left to cover and create enough resistance.

US inflation is near negative and declining, as is the case with most economies. Check out China's latest PPI and CPI. Staggering unemployment and excess inflation won't occur at the same time now? So what does that mean for the price of eggs and how will you trade that?

You can go long gold on the GOLD ETF if you are prepared to work the spread or pay the spread.

No I did not go short the GDP figures. Shorting anything in crazy markets like this is stupid unless you know something that everybody else doesn't.

LOL, you just said you would bet your bottom dollar the market will tank if some bad news came out, am I mistaken? I gather that means 'shorting', crazy? Huh?

 

[wonderrman]

No, don't think Citigroup caused this rally. US had fallen dramatically within a short time-frame and sentiment was overly negative. Many were short and longs were covered, time for a short squeeze without enough longs left to cover and create enough resistance.

Yes that may be true, but a catalyst is needed. You don't think the email would be it.

So what does that mean for the price of eggs and how will you trade that?

I won't trade eggs. I will trade where I see an uptrend (if there is any anywhere).

No I did not go short the GDP figures. Shorting anything in crazy markets like this is stupid unless you know something that everybody else doesn't.

LOL, you just said you would bet your bottom dollar the market will tank if some bad news came out, am I mistaken? I gather that means 'shorting', crazy? Huh?

Yes I believe that if there is very bad news markets will fall. That does not mean that I have to risk all my capital does it? Besides, as I said, I am not in a position to short because of my young age and capital restrictions.

 

[CanOz]

Yes I believe that if there is very bad news markets will fall. That does not mean that I have to risk all my capital does it? Besides, as I said, I am not in a position to short because of my young age and capital restrictions.

You gotta give the market some respect though WMan, watch how it reacts to bad news, if the markets absorbs these crappy numbers and goes again, then its got some legs. Once we start reacting badly again to the numbers, and inevitably that will happen, get your shorts back on!

CanOz

 

[Cartman]

Well I'm young and don't have much capital to play with.

So what I say comes back to my age ... it is not ego but fact cartman.

how much have u actually traded w/m ------------ if u r not a seasoned trader, why do u speak with so much authority?? ------- that to me points to either a youthful ego ----- or someone who has actually had more experience than they admit to ---------- either way, i'm a little unconvinced ---

 

[drsmith]

One thing we can be more confident of is that the current deleveraging will continue and therefore in real terms it's hard to see last week's low as being the bottom.

In nominal terms, who knows. That depends on how the current deleveraging cycle plays out.