Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[Garpal Gumnut]

As far as the technicals, wait until the retailers get bullish again and look for it to push through lows.

As far as the fundamentals, figures don't look to be getting much better, if at all globally. Even if GDP is negative, as are employment figures, non-farms, Japan machinery orders etc but they begin to become less negative, then we may start to see some kind of decent stabilization and rally.

Very interetsing mothn ahead

thanks Michael and MRC.

My gut feeling is a DCB.

Who can predict the future though ?

gg

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Ok so lets assume it maybe a dead cat bounce. I'm wondering at what percentage increase would members be convinced that it's not a DCB at all?
Most are calling for a bounce of say 20-25%.
Would you watch it go past that convinced it's a DCB? to 30%-40%. At what stage would it make you so crazy that you thought you missed the best investment oppertunity of a life time?

I have been dollar cost averaging into to index funds for the past year so I am by no means an expert but there is blood on the streets man. Is there no one else buying, holding at these prices? What will the ASX 200 look like in 5 years?
Should money be in a bank account earning 4% which is taxed?

"If your not on the inside your on the outside"

G

 

[So_Cynical]

Ok so lets assume it maybe a dead cat bounce. I'm wondering at what percentage increase would members be convinced that it's not a DCB at all?
Most are calling for a bounce of say 20-25%.
Would you watch it go past that convinced it's a DCB? to 30%-40%. At what stage would it make you so crazy that you thought you missed the best investment opportunity of a life time?

I have been dollar cost averaging into to index funds for the past year so I am by no means an expert but there is blood on the streets man. Is there no one else buying, holding at these prices? What will the ASX 200 look like in 5 years?

Most of the people posting in this forum are traders of 1 sort or another, they buy
trends and have systems etc....most of them are not looking for the "investment
opportunity of a life time"

I'm buying and holding...averaging and bottom picking....selling when appropriate.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

My mentor sums it up best!



“The public is out there throwing darts at a board, pal. I don’t throw darts at a board. I only bet on sure things.”

To me buying assets at depressed prices and holding for the long term is the only way to go.


To each a zone.

Best of luck
G

 

[sinner]

Ok so lets assume it maybe a dead cat bounce. I'm wondering at what percentage increase would members be convinced that it's not a DCB at all?
Most are calling for a bounce of say 20-25%.
Would you watch it go past that convinced it's a DCB? to 30%-40%. At what stage would it make you so crazy that you thought you missed the best investment oppertunity of a life time?

I have been dollar cost averaging into to index funds for the past year so I am by no means an expert but there is blood on the streets man. Is there no one else buying, holding at these prices? What will the ASX 200 look like in 5 years?
Should money be in a bank account earning 4% which is taxed?

"If your not on the inside your on the outside"

G

On what basis are you dollar cost averaging in? If this is on some perceived "value" then you must be using a short period of data. Historical value based on P/E ratio of the indices indicates we have still 20-40% to drop!

 

[psychic]

Anyone factoring in GM filing for Chapter 11 (Bankruptcy) ?

Anyone factoring in another bail-out or complete collapse of AIG (Insurance)?

I switched to cash again as of the close of business on Friday, as the rally seems false to me.

This guy seems to know his stuff, very informative.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjEFz-TF3a4

http://www.youtube.com/user/visionvictory

 

[nunthewiser]

My mentor sums it up best!



“The public is out there throwing darts at a board, pal. I don’t throw darts at a board. I only bet on sure things.”

To me buying assets at depressed prices and holding for the long term is the only way to go.


To each a zone.

Best of luck
G

even wozza B would be a little miffed at his current losses one would think

blessem

 

[Pythagerous]

That is a great chart of The Great Depression vs Now.

Does anyone have a chart of the Great Depression, that shows the trends for the market, interest rates and unemployment?

 

[drsmith]

No chart but some stats on US unemployment and interest rates from the depression era.

http://academic.reed.edu/economics/course_pages/201_f06/Cases/great_depression.htm

One question that comes to mind here is how closely would the Prime 4-6 month commercial paper minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield be related to today's ted spread ?

 

[Bobby]

Geezzz---
Get ready for a shorting bonanza , Tuesday ? Wednesday
Its coming real soon !

 

[sinner]

That is a great chart of The Great Depression vs Now.

Does anyone have a chart of the Great Depression, that shows the trends for the market, interest rates and unemployment?

Currently in the US, the U-6 measure of unemployment is higher than non-farm unemployment in the Depression.

 

[light bearer]

It's too early to say whether the share market has reached the bottom yet. We need to wait at least a few months to see how the government stimulus packages are working. It's great news that the banks in America that were going to collapse have now reported profits (i.e.Citibank and Bank of America). It seems as though the heart of the matter in the American financial system has been stabilised.

Iam optimistic that things will improve from now on. The investors that are still in the market are the stayers hoping to ride out the storm, cyclone, sunami, tidal wave or financial crisis what ever the hell you want to call it. Undoubtedly the market will recover. It will take a considerable amount of time given the amount of losses and the extent of the housing problem in the USA.

It's great to see China improving the living standards in it's own country so that it can sell more products to its own people. Therefore when the rest of the world starts buying again from China the demand for Australian minerals and various other exports will increase beyond pre financial crisis figures. As China boosts its GDP to keep up with much higher internal demand get ready for the next bull.

America is getting ready for a green and medical technology revolution. Medical breakthroughs (genetic engineering) and 'green' hybrid cars.

I believe we are in for a massive increase in prosperity right around the world as usually the next boom will surpass the last. Inorder for it to be a recovery we need to see a rally of atleast 15 to 20 percent to have sufficient momentum. The banks around the world have to be lending more again and confidence needs to improve. The market usually picks up before the end of the financial year (April, May). These current market gains are likely to be maintained. The market may go sideways for some time with stronger gains later in the year and a stronger recover next year. Get ready for the ride of your lives

 

[wonderrman]

Lots of people are still very optimistic regarding a turn around occuring pretty soon. Don't know how this can be, people need to face reality. We went through 20 years of expansion due to debt and massive use of leverage. It has caused huge problems for the financial system and it has stuffed up the way government usually fix themselves in crisis. They can't and to me there is increasing evidence that this is the end of a superbubble that lasted since the 80's. You don't have to agree but do a search on Google, I can't be stuffed writing it all down here.

Basically I think the next 5 years are a waste of time for long-term investment. The world has got itself into to deeper ****. The US are clearly screwed and the powers of the world will change to Asia and China.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/...the-lights.html

http://www.kwaves.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1226560260.php ...... are good articles that explain the current problems, very indepth analysis.

Listen to Marc Faber's analysis on YouTube. Properaly the only person on CNBC who actually reports what happens and is unconflictated!

 

[wonderrman]

I believe we are in for a massive increase in prosperity right around the world as usually the next boom will surpass the last.

I disagree and the comment on "how usually the next boom surpasss the last" is very vague. Markets, profits and gains were funded by debt and side bets on debt in the last bull market which caused us to make 30% year on year for ages. I believe after we come out of this ''crisis' people will not like debt as it has been so fatal to many. Wall Street will not be as profitable either as these derivated, CFDs, mortgage trading etc. will be dead because people will not trust Wall Street scum. Companies that participate in consumer descretionary activities will suffer lesser profits as people will not be as happy using there credit cards and debt. Bank manager will be tight as well in handing out loans/cc cards because of the lessions learnt in this bear market. Debt will not be as profficient in our market place.



Above is a simple chart of the S&P 200 and how it doubled between '04 and ;07. This is simply not sustainable across the next bull market and it was again funded by debt! Debt,debt products and profits funded by debt that will probably not carry across to the next bull market! To me it is obvious that we will not be in for massive increase in prosperity. Prosperity will again return to the people who actually make a real product (commodities, agriculture etc.), not the ones who pile together pieces of crap and sell it to a consumer who doesn't know what it is!

 

[alphaman]

I believe after we come out of this ''crisis' people will not like debt as it has been so fatal to many.

I hope so, but I doubt it. People have very short memory you know. Sooner or later someone will re-discover debt as a way to increase "wealth".

 

[CanOz]

Here is some interesting opinion on the topic of the thread.

CanOz

 

[wonderrman]

I hope so, but I doubt it. People have very short memory you know. Sooner or later someone will re-discover debt as a way to increase "wealth".

I disagree to some extend. If you look at the graphs below you will see that there was an enermous increase in debt over the 20 yr 'superbubble' period beginning in 1980. Who says we can't return to the period before hand. Yes we may return to the debt ladden period of yester year again, I wouldn't say for at least another 30 yrs though.

 

[wonderrman]

Another view of where the world will be in five years and how the economies on a global scale are going to be effected.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg

His name is Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Institution and he has predicted the 1987 stock market crash, fall of Soviet Union and last years stock market fall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Celente

http://www.trendsresearch.com

I really think everyone should watch the YT video. What he says makes so much sense.

 

[CanOz]

Another interesting thing i have found today when scanning US Stocks, is there seems to be allot of bearish patterns that are in the last leg of forming. For example, Triple tops, Rising Wedges, H&S patterns that are in their last up leg, which is this rally. Time will tell how they develop though, and its just an observation.

I'll post a couple of examples.

Many i have saved to my watch list FOR Shorts as 'Pending'.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Heres three, and there are dozens more, all this from one scan on the NYSE.

I was actually looking for some longs, but mostly all I'm finding are undeveloped shorts.

CanOz