When does a bear rally, bounce, sideways trend, continued upward trend become a market correction?
Just like to know, being a market novice.
It is pretty apparent to me global markets were all in a downward trend for the last 18 months, even though some spikes were seen, trend was clearly downward by a pretty rapid level, which of course we all know now.
So here we are , having dipped to March Low, and now we have had 3 months of upward movement, with some downward spikes..and now pretty much on a crab movement until direction is given from somewhere or something.
How many months of this trend would it take for the word "recovery" to be mooted?
If for example, we stayed in this pattern for the rest of the year, sideways with some ups and downs, but found ourselves on a S & P 500 index of 1000 ish, DJIA 9700 ish, FTSE 5000 ish, XJO 4300 ish, when would the date be named as the market correction or the end of the bear market?
April, May, June, July, August.....later ??
Or would it still be a bear market in denial?
Just interested... I clearly see the global financial clock on about 6.30 to 7, to me ,the worst is behind for this crisis, however my view is not what I would like discussed, I really would also like to know when was this current bear market officially called in 2007 and how long had the downward trend been in place since the high for the experts ( and there sure seems like a lot of those have gone quiet lately) to call the beginning of the bear market.
I find after reading many posts, articles and papers, that many people are all very very reluctant to admit that what we are seeing may be the first signs of sustained improvment ( no matter how small or light) in the global economy. There are clear indicators becoming apparent, whilst the fundementals of the problems have not totally vanished of course, they are being worked on and there are clear indicators of an end to this global recession by Q3/4 this year.
If this is true, and signs of sustained improvement( no matter how small) are proven by the release of figures, then the markets will react to this in an upwards movement..
So based on that assumption playing out for the remainder of this year,and going into 2010 with real improving figures and also barring no black swan events, when will the call be made that will be looked back through history, of the date of the market correction..
Its the exact opposite to events through late 07, 08 in my novice eyes...and if that proves to be true then only history will show us a date when the call was made.
wheep0
Just like to know, being a market novice.
It is pretty apparent to me global markets were all in a downward trend for the last 18 months, even though some spikes were seen, trend was clearly downward by a pretty rapid level, which of course we all know now.
So here we are , having dipped to March Low, and now we have had 3 months of upward movement, with some downward spikes..and now pretty much on a crab movement until direction is given from somewhere or something.
How many months of this trend would it take for the word "recovery" to be mooted?
If for example, we stayed in this pattern for the rest of the year, sideways with some ups and downs, but found ourselves on a S & P 500 index of 1000 ish, DJIA 9700 ish, FTSE 5000 ish, XJO 4300 ish, when would the date be named as the market correction or the end of the bear market?
April, May, June, July, August.....later ??
Or would it still be a bear market in denial?
Just interested... I clearly see the global financial clock on about 6.30 to 7, to me ,the worst is behind for this crisis, however my view is not what I would like discussed, I really would also like to know when was this current bear market officially called in 2007 and how long had the downward trend been in place since the high for the experts ( and there sure seems like a lot of those have gone quiet lately) to call the beginning of the bear market.
I find after reading many posts, articles and papers, that many people are all very very reluctant to admit that what we are seeing may be the first signs of sustained improvment ( no matter how small or light) in the global economy. There are clear indicators becoming apparent, whilst the fundementals of the problems have not totally vanished of course, they are being worked on and there are clear indicators of an end to this global recession by Q3/4 this year.
If this is true, and signs of sustained improvement( no matter how small) are proven by the release of figures, then the markets will react to this in an upwards movement..
So based on that assumption playing out for the remainder of this year,and going into 2010 with real improving figures and also barring no black swan events, when will the call be made that will be looked back through history, of the date of the market correction..
Its the exact opposite to events through late 07, 08 in my novice eyes...and if that proves to be true then only history will show us a date when the call was made.
wheep0
I notice that all these uber-bear/Austrian school/monetarist type views - you know, the ones that always go on about doom and gloom and show us fancy charts with exponential up trends etc? Well they always use linear instead of log axis on their fancy graphs. Why? Well it looks good to people that don't actually understand maths I suppose, or who don't get the fact that the worlds population has grown exponentially for the past few thousand years as well...... Maybe one day that will stop, but until population growth globally stops looking exponential, and even then until close to 100% of the worlds population have the equivalent living standards to the developed/western world, then I think most economic indicators, including money supply growth, credit, GDP, trade, government income/expenditure etc etc can continue to grow in a commensurate manner, over the long term anyway, with the odd hiccup here and there of course as we have just seen (and are still seeing!).
