Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[Eternal Prime]

The stupid man is the one who is in the rally and gloats because they think it is him that has caused his gains not the luck of being in the market at the time. I myself was in the rally too but you don't see me or others tooting our horn.

I wonder if wheepo was in the market for the 18 months of downward price action prior to this rally? :

wonder.

While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.

How about those of us who like to short? Are we stupid for not been in the current rally?
I for one have been extremely active since Jan 2007 up until Nov2008. Waiting for the right time to get back in.
Disregard all of the c**p that a few participants have claimed on this thread and lets discuss honestly without bias the topic of this thread.

 

[GumbyLearner]

What does the Top Cop at the US Federal Reserve know?

 

[Temjin]

Am I not surprised that Wheepo ignored the "Trading Claims" thread and continue to defend his ego in this thread?

The way you announced your education in MBA has certainly revealed a lot of things about you.

By the way, the stock market is NOT CHEAP by any historic standards. It was not during the March low and certainly not now.

Using Robert Shiller's 10 yhears trend in normalized earnings for the S&P500 Index, after adjusting for inflation, the P/E ratio is still at 13 in low March. That is NOT CHEAP by any historic standard.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10737.html

If long term valuations revert back to the low P/E ratios reached at the end of the LAST secular bear market in the early 1980s (normalized P/E of about 8) … that means the S&P 500 could, conceivably, FALL another 50 percent in value from here!

And no, don't go telling me earnings for S&P500 is totally unrelated to the Australian stock market. You would be totally naive to believe the US stock market cannot affect the sentiment in our Aussie one.

But like I said again, there would be plenty of tradable bear market rally to profit from all this if you have the right strategies for it.

 

[Pappon]

Where's this dead cat bounce everybody is talking about? It looks like a rally that as of last week stalled a bit then is continuing to rise again

 

[Beej]

Where's this dead cat bounce everybody is talking about? It looks like a rally that as of last week stalled a bit then is continuing to rise again

I think based on the timelines and market viewpoint being applied here that the 2003-2007 bull market was really nothing but a big dead cat bounce off the 2001 lows!

Beej

 

[Pappon]

So what's peoples opinions of the past March/April rally?

 

[alphaman]

I think based on the timelines and market viewpoint being applied here that the 2003-2007 bull market was really nothing but a big dead cat bounce off the 2001 lows!
Beej

It is exactly because of the timelines (5 years vs. 2 months), that this rally is a bear rally until proven otherwise.

Just look at XJO's monthly chart. You think market has made a huge move, but big picture wise, it is still only a small retracement.

 

[Beej]

It is exactly because of the timelines (5 years vs. 2 months), that this rally is a bear rally until proven otherwise.

Just look at XJO's monthly chart. You think market has made a huge move, but big picture wise, it is still only a small retracement.

Sure it may turn to be a bear market rally - but that is a different beast to a dead cat bounce. I think it is very clear that a dead cat bounce this was not..... Bear market rally??? Perhaps but the jury is still out. Maybe it's time to start a new thread?

Beej

 

[alphaman]

To me they are same, a rally during a bear market. In his opening post Pythagerous was obviously asking whether this is a new bull market, or just a rally.

 

[Gundini]

What does the Top Cop at the US Federal Reserve know?

Those who have not watched this video, please do...

This is an insult, not only to the US, but to humanity!

How disgracefull.... and sad....

 

[Bafana]

Doesn't sound like they know whats going on at all.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Doesn't sound like they know whats going on at all.

Well, who REALLY wants to know?

Sometimes the truth hurts.

So, to numb the pain Big Bro decides it's best to keep it hidden away?

It could be worse. We should all just live the dream and be happy.

What more is there to life?

 

[pilots]

Those who have not watched this video, please do...

This is an insult, not only to the US, but to humanity!

How disgracefull.... and sad....

After looking at that, I wonder how any one can say we on the road to prosperity again, nine Tril, and no one wants to know about it , heaven help us.

 

[Temjin]

After looking at that, I wonder how any one can say we on the road to prosperity again, nine Tril, and no one wants to know about it , heaven help us.

The road to prosperity is to continue to consume and borrow more and bring forward future demand to "kick start" the economy again.

Of course, no one wants to know the truth because they would like to have the cake and eat it too. Free lunch is too much of an opportunity to pass.

I have absolute no faith in the government's ability to reverse this structural change at all.

 

[Aussiejeff]

The road to prosperity is to continue to consume and borrow more and bring forward future demand to "kick start" the economy again.

Of course, no one wants to know the truth because they would like to have the cake and eat it too. Free lunch is too much of an opportunity to pass.

I have absolute no faith in the government's ability to reverse this structural change at all.

Right on, Bro! Now ya got it!!

We all gotta believe the Obama-KRudd Dream to achieve this Nirvana thingy.

Remember, our beloved Main Man & Head Guru Robots woz onto this enlightenment path right from the get-go.

We should all take heed of the Great ObamaKRudd & be prepared to sell everything we own and GO OUT AND SPEND THE LOT TO BUY IT ALL BACK AGAIN!!

Imagine how many jobs that would create?
Imagine how much money our friends the banks could make?
Imagine how powerful our most excellent political masters could become on the world stage?

The latte's are on me Robi.....


Chiz,


aj

 

[Uncle Festivus]

US and global debt ....the figures don't add up, and creditors are demanding more risk premium.... simple.

Hard landing imminent.........bonds.....debt to GDP......China civil riots....

 

[MrBurns]

If you look at the 2 year AXS chart the current surge is no more than another spike in a downward trend.........

 

[Beej]

If you look at the 2 year AXS chart the current surge is no more than another spike in a downward trend.........

Mr Burns- it might be, it might not be - the thing is you nor anyone else *really* knows. Down trends have to reverse sometime.... the historical norm for the stock market is an up-trend rather than a down-trend.So it is inevitable that at some point a down trend will reverse. The only question is when..... and is this current rally that reversal, or will we repeat/extend previous lows and thus confirm an ongoing down-trend as you think to be the case?

In the meantime, this rally has provided some AWESOME opportunities for trading profits + accumulation at reduced cost from all the discounted rights issues and through dividends (which have been substantial) being re-invested.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[White_Knight]

Solution for US:

-Slash military spending
-Slash foreign aid

 

[Aussiejeff]

Solution for US:

-Slash military spending
-Slash foreign aid

-Slash imports (too costly with falling dollar)
-Slash healthcare (too costly no matter what)
-Slash pensions (too costly no matter what)
-Slash jobs (too costly no matter what)

Easy peasy...