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Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

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Thanks for that it's a good read, he seems pretty level headed. I read some of the gloom and doom blogs, as well as mainstream "greenshoot" spin.

See what you think of this guy..
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/

Regards
Ray
 
Wheep0 said:
You lot will still be moaning and trying to short sell.
Click to expand...

Wheep0 said:
as much as you all hope it will to satisfy your negativity and pessimism.
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Some people's ignorance really is amazing. It is hard to believe that people can think the money-printing governments of our world can get away with pouring dollars into the system, with out there being any negative implications in the future. I posted the chart below in the Gold thread but it is relevant here. The "quantitative easing" through the creation of new governments bonds has the potential to unsettle the foundations of the United States thrown as the world's global "powerhouse". China is no longer buyer the dollar and if the world follows no one will be buying there bonds, their capital deficits and massive public debt will be unfunded. Surely this does not bode well for equity markets (with in the US) over the coming five to ten years?



In the next bull market we may see markets rally, but in real terms it may not mean anything. The Dow could go up 100% but the US dollar may depreciate by 50%. This is because of what the governments are doing now to fool the public that we are finally getting out of this crisis. Massive monetary stimuli causes people to speculate as their cash is worthless, savers are being penalised, money enters the system but it leads to extremely volatile markets which makes predicting very hard.

Wake up to what is happening in the world around you. I don't know how the public can trust the dishonest people in Bernanke, Geithner and Larry Summers to solve the problem when they caused the problem.

In saying this that doesn't mean there is no money to be made. There is a whole world of investments out there.
 


Sounds like a plan then, based on...? Guesswork, historical precedence? Can any of the permabulls put forward some facts or data to support their arguments?? rather than hope and guesses?

Maybe you could post the statistic that people in the US are now buying property, instead of being foreclosed, except for the fact that it doesn't exist?

Or maybe you can ignore the facts -

- that Chinese unemployment is now approaching 30 MILLION and have a glut of un-sellable steel? The stimulis is going into building modern factories ie less workers, making things nobody wants. 30M people competing for jobs paying $1.50 per hr - not going to buy a plazma screen with that then are they?

- public debt to GDP in Britain is approaching 100%

- April US tax receipts the first deficit in 26 years!!

- US budget has already blown out from 1.2TRILLION deficit to ???? name your multi trillion figure?

- 18,000 people a DAY are losing their jobs in the US!

- etc etc etc

I don't care which way it goes, I trade both ways. But believe in your assumption at your peril, again. A suckers, manipulated rally.......please to relieve you of your remaining savings....say the big boys in on the con......
 
Uncle Festivus said:
I don't care which way it goes, I trade both ways. But believe in your assumption at your peril, again. A suckers, manipulated rally.......please to relieve you of your remaining savings....say the big boys in on the con......
Click to expand...


and relieve them it will ..........

amen
 

Dr Smith posted this link a few days back, it's worthwhile to pause and see what the credit markets are doing...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=10750

There are now in excess of 800 or so large stimulus packages, by various governments around the world, the cat has plenty to feed on for a while...

I might agree with some of what the doom and gloom loonies are pushing, but the reality is, the market isn't trading on fundamentals, it's trading on pure sentiment... no logic required....

Regards
Ray
 
nunthewiser said:
and relieve them it will ..........

amen
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Well my portfolio is certainly releaving my expensive lifestyle nunthewiser.
Fantastic...
Its great on a down day to see 8 of my 11 stocks in the green.

Guys , guess what, what you are quoting about a global meltdown has been a part of the global financial story since time and memorial.

A lot of same old same old..... zzzz, go back to any time in history and you can find the same total pessimism, and doomsday foreboding.. Well we not there yet and sorry to say to most , we wont be there this time....

Uncle festimus, my rational is nothing but gut instinct, common sense and belief in the future. Market expert I am not and dont profess to be.. So that shoud stand me in good steed then..

Luck to the brave and forward thinkers
wheep0
 
Wheep0 said:
Well my portfolio is certainly releaving my expensive lifestyle nunthewiser.
Fantastic...
Its great on a down day to see 8 of my 11 stocks in the green.

wheep0
Click to expand...

im still waiting on those statements darl , so until such time
keep on dreaming

oh by the way today was great for me also only red holding was MTS but hey i can live in its trading channel .
 
Wheep0 said:
ha ha. no offence ducks
I will mail u a few select snipps of my buys since October 08
Be patient sweet heart..
Click to expand...

i would have thought u have had more than enough time to knock up some fake statements by now ....

geez m8 perhaps you should ask naked shorts to give you a hand

have a great evening
 
the market isn't trading on fundamentals, it's trading on pure sentiment... no logic required....
Click to expand...

We'll you could say that is how markets always perform. It is the sentiment, or thought of the masses and their collective intelligence and stupidity.


I would argue though that the fundamental reasoning behind this rally is the massive monetary printing and stimuli implemented by the dishonest people at the top of the United States.

Now of course as the US are still the economic and geopolitical powerhouse of this world global indicies basically follow what they are doing. Emerging countries around the globe have experienced the rally since March but most have not been printing money and inflating the bond markets like their Western world counterparts.

The Baltic Dry Index which measures international shipping has rebounded quite substantially. One could link this to the emerging economies of our world demonstrating their rebound potential. They were indeed down to 1980 area lows last November. This was unlike the Western world (US/UK/Aus) etc that were only really off about 10 years. If the US went back to 1980 equity prices the S&P would have been at ~100! I think one could content that Asian markets most likely have seen the "bottom" in equities (80/20 probability). That is because of the simple fact of the extent of their decline. They also did not make new lows back in March 6 of this year. This does not mean they cannot decline again to new lows though, I could be very wrong.



The US/European geographic area I would not be so sure though. Actually, I definitely would not be sure. There is no way they are out of trouble yet, not by any means. This includes Australia. The Western world as I have mentioned are trying to inflate their way out of trouble. I will not re-post the graph I have so to not bore regular readers but the extent of the printing on a real terms and compared to previous statistics over a thirty year period is amazing.

I have to go so I will leave this post for the moment and add later.

Wonder.
 
Wheep0 said:
Well my portfolio is certainly releaving my expensive lifestyle nunthewiser.
Fantastic...
Its great on a down day to see 8 of my 11 stocks in the green.
Click to expand...

Nothing like a bull market, upside correction, bear market rally, dead cat bounce - what ever you want to call it to fool the stupid man.
 
wonderrman said:
Nothing like a bull market, upside correction, bear market rally, dead cat bounce - what ever you want to call it to fool the stupid man.
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While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.
 
Real1ty said:
While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.
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The stupid man is the one who is in the rally and gloats because they think it is him that has caused his gains not the luck of being in the market at the time. I myself was in the rally too but you don't see me or others tooting our horn.

I wonder if wheepo was in the market for the 18 months of downward price action prior to this rally? :

wonder.
 
Real1ty said:
While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.
Click to expand...

Reality,
Matters little what anyone believes, just think of me in my parallel universe where this could have happened if it makes you feel better.
My buys were made from Ocotber 15th until March 30th.
I am just doing a little fine tuning now.
I obviously cannot post my holding amounts and prices I paid without posting evidence, and im not going to do that without ensuring I keep my privacy so suppose its a bit of stale mate.
need less to say and again lets look at this parallel universe, I have a substantial 7 figure monoply money portfolio of quality blue chip and mid tier stocks all bought at the height of dispair and captilulation. I did not bait anyone to sell, I have never shorted, I have in fact been bullish from the very first stock I bought I October 2008.

I have not been a a part of this rally, so quite why everyone feels I am the sucker is beyond me. My buying was complete before this rally even started. Market would have to drop to below 3200, and oil to below $32 which is where it was when I was ploughing in and stay there for me to lose a cent..

Does that make me a sucker, a realist, a gambler, or an astute invester with guts and positive forward thinking to take this once in a lifetime opportunity?

Look inwards to your own weaknesses , fears, lack of ambition and short falls before you cast judgements on others!

oh you bears,
wheep0
 

Wonderman
Never invested a cent before Ocotober 2008..
and wont invest a cent after Ocotber 2010
Im not a market expert.
I do however know quality blue chip acutely oversold stocks.
I recognise a once in my lifetime opportunity for a 2-3 year hold period
I know my modern history, I have an MBA in it.
I also know that oil is only going to go one way and stay there

Horses for courses,
Its the bottom of the bear market, why would I be scared.
does that make me really stupid?

wheep0
 

Weeping woozier. Why don't you pull your head in. You more than likely are full of it. Its all to easy to take a screen shot of your statements and blank out a couple of details - but nothing.

To bang on like you have on one hindsight unproven call is really embarrassing. Plenty do this stuff day in day out over a very long period here and in real time and you keep on banging on for what??

One call thats not proven? What a poor joke! Grow up or go away.

And for god sake don't tell anyone you have a MBA. We have already lost enough respect for you :
 
wonderrman said:
I will not re-post the graph I have so to not bore regular readers but the extent of the printing on a real terms and compared to previous statistics over a thirty year period is amazing.
Click to expand...

I think you make some good points. On the money printing side, I think this article is well worth the read just to hear the opposite side of the argument

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/humpty-dumpty-on-inflation.html

IMO we still have plenty of time in this deflationary period. The fed has so far bought $150bn of 'assets' with its printed money, thats like a happy meal these days and they can go upto $300bn per quarter from memory. Compare that to the massive destruction in credit..... and then consider that all this printed money will just sit on bank balance sheets while they continue deleveraging + writing off
There is huge excess world capacity, a rush to pay down debt (except FHB's & govt.), a move to cheaper offshore labour and rising unemployment. Inflation will return one day but not for a while in my view
 
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