Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[GumbyLearner]

I'm very aware of how little i know of the markets mate, i've only been in the markets for three and half years now. One thing about the markets i do know is that they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! I cut my losses and i let my winners run, the trade determines my holding time in almost all cases. I'm recently in cash, except for a few commodity ETFs and until i can get short i will stay in cash.

I've not made allot of money in the three years of trading, but i had little to start with. I've learned my lessons the hard way, and i now manage risk. Through this bear market i can happily say that i'm in front, which is more than many buy and hold investors can say.



CanOz

I appreciate your posts Can Oz.
MY first investment was back in 2001.
I'm more a buy and hold kinda guy myself.
Since the Bear began I have lost around 20% at today's market level.
Sitting on a few losses without counting divs, splits or discounted capital loyalty buy-in programs.

What I am happy to say is that I have never touched the financials or the Allco, Centro's of this world. But have been burnt by the Micheless's over at OZL & a couple of others. Still holding and not trading. Each to their own!

 

[jonojpsg]

Wheepo wheepo wheepo, you brag about 100% returns in four months and scoff at "day traders" making a few coppers here and there - mate there are traders on here who can make your 100% in a day so don't come scoffing at what you obviously don't understand. The good day traders don't brag, that's probably why you don't hear from them.

Of course I'm not one of them so I'm certainly not scoffing at your 100% although that's about my return and most likely a lot of other people on this forums as well over the last four months.

 

[CanOz]

I appreciate your posts Can Oz.
MY first investment was back in 2001.
I'm more a buy and hold kinda guy myself.
Since the Bear began I have lost around 20% at today's market level.
Sitting on a few losses without counting divs, splits or discounted capital loyalty buy-in programs.

What I am happy to say is that I have never touched the financials or the Allco, Centro's of this world. But have been burnt by the Micheless's over at OZL & a couple of others. Still holding and not trading. Each to their own!

Hi Gumby, nothing wrong with a fundy view, as long as you are right 50% of the time you can throw darts at the ASX200 if you like. My point is, when do we classify investor performance as luck vs. positive expectancy? Soros cuts his losses when he is wrong, does Buffet? How is Buffet doing now vs. Soros? (i'll answer that, Buffet 0, Soros 1).

Ért engem?

 

[Trevor_S]

I'm very aware of how little i know of the markets mate, i've only been in the markets for three and half years now.

...

How is Buffet doing now vs. Soros? (i'll answer that, Buffet 0, Soros 1).

words fail me

 

[MRC & Co]

Sorry off topic, but it's always funny to read about people talking of their time in the markets.

This doesn't mean much to me, someone who has stocks invested and dabbles in trading for 25 years, probably won't know as much as someone who sits infront of a screen and watches it full-time and consumes themselves in trading for 1 year!

Not to mention, some can gain an edge in 6 months, others may never find one in a lifetime!

 

[CanOz]

...



words fail me

Why? Everyone's letting loose here, verbalize man! You want details on how Berk Hath is doing vs Soros's endowment fund in 2008?

CanOZ

 

[Wheep0]

Dont mean to be aggressive, however all you bears are just so touchy.. Listen im unconventional and I oppose the masses....
Makes you think though eh?

I had everyone on HC telling me I should have been certified for buying when everyone was selling..

Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR

I opposed everyone in November telling me I was mad, and now, Im taking nearly 400 k profit out. I was down a few times and one day away from selling the lot at a loss, but I stuck in. I will leave in in my innitial investment after profits are out, Im sure it will ebb and flow for a few months, but whatever , if we kick back down to sub 3500 I will just buy more for the real turn around . Wont miss it thats for sure..

Im a little bored of experts and their views, the only expert anyone needs to take attention of is their selves - Be your own expert,and go with what you think is realistic and probable.. A market correction was always on the cards, after the freefall ,did not take an expert to call that. If it falls again then guess what, another upward correction will be on as well.

Realise some of you old regulars treat these things as your own personal networks.. Hey I dont want to upset anyone, I just like to know why everyone is still calling for the world to cave in when quite obviously it is not.. It can lead to pretty strong views..

All big boys and girls here, and after all its only an internet chat room, filled not only with genuine posters but with imposters, double edged swords and raging alto ego`s....

Looking forward to an interesting month.... I foresee a ripple effect in a range of +/- 150points for the next month as long as no black swan events hit us...

cheers
wheep0

 

[MRC & Co]

and raging alto ego`s....

LOL.

Banned from HC, stirred up trouble instantly on a new forum (even with people who are not bears, nor bulls). Looks like someone enjoys the trouble, alter-ego, LOL.

All the best with the trading.

 

[CanOz]

Looking forward to an interesting month.... I foresee a ripple effect in a range of +/- 150points for the next month as long as no black swan events hit us...

cheers
wheep0

You mean besides the current one?

Cheers,



CanOz

 

[Nero64]

Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR

If you bought some of these in Oct then you would be down eg MAH, AIO and LEI. KAR and PDN have outperformed. I made a profit out of IPL but i don't feel comfortable in holding it due to its debt levels.

There is some good profits made and you're entitled to your opinion. Good luck. Hope you stick around as debate is good for this forum.

 

[Buster]

G'Day Wheepo,

Dont mean to be aggressive, however all you bears are just so touchy..

No bear here mate, I'm simply expecting to see what we typically see every year at about this time.. although it could get silly due to some going to panic stations and, as previously opined, possibly revisit recent lows..

Time will tell though..

Cheers,

Buster

 

[moXJO]

Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and those with longer term positivness who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...



Am I the only bull in the village? Well if so , just to let you know this bull is taking $ 350 k pofits out this week ,held since October 08..

Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR

So you started with $1.45 mill? And made a further $350k? So roughly 25 %( that sound right?) Correct me if I am wrong.
Congrats but go read up on ivant's thread where he turned $1500 into $400k in 12 months or so (paperwork verified by mods). TH also had a thread where he posted his trades and made a lot in a few days ($1k-10k to $50k I can't remember now) before you boast of how day trading sucks

As far as the bulls and bears battle, who cares as long as you trade the opportunities. Bears are not banned from taking long positions last time I checked. And a lot of information that filters through has helped a lot on certain trades. Everyone trades to a different style. And forums are more to bounce ideas or fears off of.

Good work though, and welcome to the board

 

[GumbyLearner]

Hi Gumby, nothing wrong with a fundy view, as long as you are right 50% of the time you can throw darts at the ASX200 if you like. My point is, when do we classify investor performance as luck vs. positive expectancy? Soros cuts his losses when he is wrong, does Buffet? How is Buffet doing now vs. Soros? (i'll answer that, Buffet 0, Soros 1).

Ért engem?

Yes your right Can OZ. I'm not as capable as the Jim Rogers, Marc Fabers or Wheep0's of this world so short me???? Go on, short me. Good luck ****ers!

 

[sammy84]

Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR

Many traders here could generate alot higher % returns. Its only your base that makes your earnings sound impressive. I alone have achieved a greater % return than you have and I've still got my training wheels on. Oh yeah, and I am one of those traders who is wasting my time. The only reason I have not printed a t-shirts claiming that I am the master of the markets is that I realise the XJO has climbed around 18% in the past month. Makes it very easy trading conditions.

I myself have been bullish for a while. A correction is immenant however as markets cannot move one direction. Still I wouldn't be suprised to see us head back towards the 5000 mark, but after that who knows....this might be one leg of a larger bear market. WHEEPO's posts also makes me think a correction is necessary. The dead wood needs to washed away once again.

 

[Temjin]

Dont mean to be aggressive, however all you bears are just so touchy.. Listen im unconventional and I oppose the masses....
Makes you think though eh?

The masses? Based on my observation with the general public, the media, and the people surrounding me in the real world, they are now far more optimistic about the economy (and the stock market in general) than they were back in Oct 08 low. This is when everybody was talking about gloom and doom, making our contrarian views less "contrarian".

A bear market rally was too obvious to the well informed.

The members on this forum here are on average, far better informed and more financially literate than the rest of the general population.

I'm a contrarian myself and I certainly see fellow ones on this particular forum who source their data / opinions from the very same contrarians (ultra rich entreprenaurs and independent economic analysts) who have predicted this crisis back many years ago. Of course, it does not mean my planned actions toward this contrarian view would be the same tot hem.

I guess I cannot blame you because you are still relatively new on this forum and do not have an understanding on the "common beliefs" here.

I had everyone on HC telling me I should have been certified for buying when everyone was selling..

Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR

I opposed everyone in November telling me I was mad, and now, Im taking nearly 400 k profit out.

You've made the right decision to trade the bear market rally because you said it, it was too obvious. Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, George Soros, etc, etc, were all stating (before the Oct 08 low) that to expect an extremely powerful BEAR MARKET rally that would caught most people off guard.

Markets with a secular trend to worsening economic conditions will always have rallies in between. If you have the ability to identify these trends and trade them to your profit, then good on you.

However, current economic fundamentals do not justify such rallies. We are certainly NOT IN A NEW BULL MARKET, but I'm expecting more sucker rallies to occur in the coming months/years. Rather than staying on the side line, one could profit from these bear market rallies to their own advantage. But you can be sure there will be plenty of "suckers" who think this is a new bull market and will put everything back in and continue to "buy the low" on the basis that the economy will recover in 6-12 months time.

Im a little bored of experts and their views, the only expert anyone needs to take attention of is their selves - Be your own expert,and go with what you think is realistic and probable.. A market correction was always on the cards, after the freefall ,did not take an expert to call that. If it falls again then guess what, another upward correction will be on as well.

Most experts that I respect are economic analysts who only focus on the bigger picture of the world. They are not interested in trading these rallies for lots of reasons including legal ones. You would fare far better if you would open your mind and listen to what they have to say.

Realise some of you old regulars treat these things as your own personal networks.. Hey I dont want to upset anyone, I just like to know why everyone is still calling for the world to cave in when quite obviously it is not.. It can lead to pretty strong views..

Then provide us with evidences that the global financial crisis is finally over. Why do you think bailouts and stimulus policies would work? Why do you think future growth trend will go back to the 2000-2007 levels? Why do you think we will see a new bull market again despite we are still facing a global debt deflation event?

I'm not expecting this to be over anytime soon, but you can be sure that there are PLENTY OF TRADEABLE RALLIES and other opportunities to profit out of this downturn. I may be permissitic about the global economy in general, but I'm very optimistic about my own ability to be much better off than the "mass".

I suggest you don't be SO SURE about your confidence of your ability to invest/trade based on your recent results. The world is much bigger than you would think.

 

[MrBurns]

Why would anyone declare the worth of their portfolio ?, unless they were lying, or just trying to impress. New money is just so crass.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Why would anyone declare the worth of their portfolio ?, unless they were lying, or just trying to impress. New money is just so crass.

Probably the done thing on HC. Trying to outdo each other. Whether or not it's true is another question.

Anyways, wasted enough energy on that distraction. Time to see if 3700 holds for the short term.

 

[MrBurns]

Probably the done thing on HC. Trying to outdo each other. Whether or not it's true is another question.

Mine is $6.5 m, anyone else care to join in ?

 

[pilots]

Mine is $6.5 m, anyone else care to join in ?

$ ONLY 6.5, hell man mine is 10.5, now I feel good that I am better than you.

 

[shiftyphil]

Mine is $6.5 m, anyone else care to join in ?

But is it mostly in Confederated Slaveholdings, Transatlantic Zeppelin, Amalgamated Spats, Congreve's Inflammable Powder, U.S. Hay and Baltimore Opera Hat Company?