Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?
- Thread starter Pythagerous
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Perhaps scroll back a few pages (think it was in this thread) and check your statement. Completely false and misleading.
http://m1.smartmoney.com/aheadofthecurve/images/0306-chart.gif
Oh and BTW, that's NOT a double bottom.
Hey CanOz..
Obviously WheepO is new here, and not privvy to the contributions you make in this forum..
Anyway, I'm expecting some serious volitility (more than usual in recent times anyway..) over the next few weeks while everyone balances up the books before tax time.. May well cause a bit of panic selling and a revisit of the lows again..
moxJO.. Do you know what the story behind point 20 was? Would be interesting to find out what the mentality behind that move was..
Cheers,
Buster
Next low in October
Obviously WheepO is new here, and not privvy to the contributions you make in this forum..
Anyway, I'm expecting some serious volitility (more than usual in recent times anyway..) over the next few weeks while everyone balances up the books before tax time.. May well cause a bit of panic selling and a revisit of the lows again..
moxJO.. Do you know what the story behind point 20 was? Would be interesting to find out what the mentality behind that move was..
Cheers,
Buster
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Israel!!
Could this be an unprecedented event that has not been factored in? I know we have heard it all before but this has been building for some time and the writtings on the wall.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/131153
I don't think we will have to wait until Oct. Think we will retest the lows in July.
My
G
Guys, ha ha
The preverbial pessimists, looking and going of charts of the great depression and now throwing in tails of global meltdown ala Isreal.. All typical Donnie Darko stuff....
heard it all before on HC, nothing new there..
Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and those with longer term positivness who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...
nothing new here I see, same old same old manic depressiveness who if won the lottery would bitch about the $ 10 it cost buy the ticket.
Each to their own though, guess thats why some people always make things happen and come out well and others well just dont!
Am I the only bull in the village? Well if so , just to let you know this bull is taking $ 350 k pofits out this week ,held since October 08..
Good luck to all...
My path is somewhat individual, not for most , but has done me very well..
cheers
Wheep0
The preverbial pessimists, looking and going of charts of the great depression and now throwing in tails of global meltdown ala Isreal.. All typical Donnie Darko stuff....
heard it all before on HC, nothing new there..
Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and those with longer term positivness who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...
nothing new here I see, same old same old manic depressiveness who if won the lottery would bitch about the $ 10 it cost buy the ticket.
Each to their own though, guess thats why some people always make things happen and come out well and others well just dont!
Am I the only bull in the village? Well if so , just to let you know this bull is taking $ 350 k pofits out this week ,held since October 08..
Good luck to all...
My path is somewhat individual, not for most , but has done me very well..
cheers
Wheep0
To take their gold. I'm not sure if many were actually seized though. Or even if point 20 was said. I just saw the chart and thought it was funny.
http://www.wellsfargonevadagold.com/confiscation-order.pdf
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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There are many more shoes to drop yet mate, we haven't even begun to see the effect of the collapse in the commercial real estate market. As this happens there will be more write downs and most banks will need even more capital.
The housing index is rolling over, signaling an end to the recent rally, and the financial index is following.
Then there is the seasonal factor, do you seriously think there is enough positive sentiment to go against this? I can see it if we were in a big bull market, but how is this bear going to go against proven seasonality?
I'm no perma-bear Wheep0, i just don't see any fundamental or technical indications that this rally is the end of the bear market, not yet.
Good choice taking profits, i wish you well.
CanOz
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either way next few months will be very interesting...
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Which shows you don't have a clue about how lucrative day trading can be.
No and I really dont want to, every day trader I know are all pretty stressed people, who funnily enough dont seem to have reached financial freedom by doing it! Sure its ok for a little dabble , I even do it myself at times..but it does not determine my investment strategy!
Funny thing is ,Most traders I know only talk about the ones that they made a few bucks on, not the ones that they got burnt on.. and suddenly the whole world caves in on them and they are skint. Proves to me a lot more duff trades than profitable ones..
Still sure there are good skins to be taken in the right time and right place, i dont doubt.
100k invested in the likes of PDN, WOR, ADX, 4 Months ago and still holding now, would have decimated any profits with trading $ 100 k in and out of them.
Listen I ve nothing against traders, I just dont understand the need to keep dabbling all day every day, when just as much or more profits would be gained by leaving them all alone and letting them work for you.
One other thing I will add to this thread.. Forget about anylising the XJO, has no resemblence to the future of the Australian stock market. The only 2 indice`s anyone needs to be analysing for trends is the SP 500 and DJIA..
Its pretty sad Australia which is so resource rich cannot determine its own market movements, but its true... Our market is nothing more than a mute satelite around the central bource of SP and DJIA....
Im no lover of the yanks, but they will be the ones that dictate when this global recession ends, noone else.. For me they will see better figures arrive by Q3, The market being forward thinking now has to take that all in..
Good luck with your trades..
Wheep0
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Asia/Europe/US all move eachother, none lead, none follow. If you watched any charts unfold live, you would see this.
One good trade and all of a sudden your an expert on day trading, swing trading, position trading, correlations of indices, what else can you let us in on?
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Ever heard of under-valued, 'reflexivity', two of the richest traders in the world made their coin out of this. Markets are forward looking, but also grossly mis-price at certain times.
I wouldn't tend to disagree with this, but there are those out there who do quite well with day trading.
Nope ,I aint no expert on trading or the market, makes me the same as most then.. I look at things very simply.. Market falls 55% in 9 months ,then its a pretty safe bet to plough in with a mid term strategy ( thats 12-24 months) not 1 -3 days which is the traders long term hold it seems..
One tip though..
Have the gonads to be forward thinking and the common sense to know where we have been before this crisis, we will be back to and more, we have sent rockets to Mars and landed men on the moon ( so they say ,suppose someone will contest that one as well) anyone compairing the world of 2009, the growth patterns,and technology Advances to the times of the great depression needs a very sharp reality check!
Me, It just felt right, still does..Never touched the markets before October 08 and wont again after this period of global capitulation...
I do know energy stocks though and what is required to bring it online, and that is why my whole portfolio is based on Oil, Uranium and Materials.. some gold and fertilisers as well to weigh it up
The fundementals for the future.
Sorry for spoiling your bear party.....
wheep0
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Your knowledge of economics is far worse than mine Wheep0 and your arguments hold little water.
One thing i will say, your buy and hold approach to commodity stocks on the ASX may be more profitable in the long run than it is right now for swing traders. That is however, mostly due to the illiquid nature of this current market.
Your right, you do look at things very simply, as did most of those other buy and hold investors who lost 55% or more of their wealth.
There is nothing wrong with taking a long term view, but my question is...what do you do if your view is wrong? Do you cut your losses or do you average down?
George Soros once said something like "I may get it wrong from time to time, but i spend less time in the market when i know I'm wrong than when I'm right" and he reiterates that in the end of this interview
That's the key difference between investors who get lucky and ones that use expectancy. I wonder which one you are Wheep0, i suspect the former?
And on that thought i'll leave you with these charts.....any comments?
Cheers,
CanOz
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Well done Wheep0.
Just one question, is the 350K pre or post-CGT calculation?
Cheers
Gumby
Your knowledge of economics is far worse than mine Wheep0 and your arguments hold little water.
One thing i will say, your buy and hold approach to commodity stocks on the ASX may be more profitable in the long run than it is right now for swing traders. That is however, mostly due to the illiquid nature of this current market.
Your right, you do look at things very simply, as did most of those other buy and hold investors who lost 55% or more of their wealth.
There is nothing wrong with taking a long term view, but my question is...what do you do if your view is wrong? Do you cut your losses or do you average down?
George Soros once said something like "I may get it wrong from time to time, but i spend less time in the market when i know I'm wrong than when I'm right" and he reiterates that in the end of this interview
That's the key difference between investors who get lucky and ones that use expectancy. I wonder which one you are Wheep0, i suspect the former?
Cheers,
CanOz
Hmm, welcome to my world. WOR average $ 12.85 holding 12000 Shares, IPL average $ 1.83 holding 80,000 shares, PDN average $ 2.40 holding 50,000 shares, ADX average $ 0.05 Holding 900,000 shares, theres half a dozen more....
Im no market expert, I am however an energy and materials expert and a forward thinker. I have been consulting in the oil industry last 15 years, and have worked in it all my life. I actually knew Worley Parsons was a very astute and globaly experienced oil and gas company unlike the average mug who thought and still thinks it s a mining company bringing ore out of the ground, and drove the SP down to $ 11....
I love it, seen it all on HC where I got the same put downs from the so called " market experts", simple truth of the fact is, I am as much an expert as you in these current times...
Remember a little truth, half of the people involved in markets dont know half as much as they think, and the other half know a lot more than they think! ..
which one are you ?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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I'm very aware of how little i know of the markets mate, i've only been in the markets for three and half years now. One thing about the markets i do know is that they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! I cut my losses and i let my winners run, the trade determines my holding time in almost all cases. I'm recently in cash, except for a few commodity ETFs and until i can get short i will stay in cash.
I've not made allot of money in the three years of trading, but i had little to start with. I've learned my lessons the hard way, and i now manage risk. Through this bear market i can happily say that i'm in front, which is more than many buy and hold investors can say.
CanOz
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Hoo boy, where to start?
Means nothing on this forum. You want to make claims, submit your holding statements to be verified by a moderator. Having said that, even if you do have these positions it demonstrates nothing about your ability to trade/invest at a professional level. You have however, qualified your view of yourself.
I seem to recall you saying you were banned from HC. That seems odd, given your style of commentary seems more commensurate with that community.
1) You're new to the forum.
2) Canaussieuck is a regular and pretty well regarded I believe.
You are not going to garner credibility here by bad-mouthing day trading when by your own admission you know nothing of it, big-noting yourself, and directing clearly uninformed comments at accomplished traders (such as MRC).
Here's a tip:
Take a step back. Carefully consider what informed opinion/knowledge you might be able to add to this community. Offer it with a little humility and openness given your admitted lack of experience.
And have a nice day.
Means nothing on this forum. You want to make claims, submit your holding statements to be verified by a moderator. Having said that, even if you do have these positions it demonstrates nothing about your ability to trade/invest at a professional level. You have however, qualified your view of yourself.
I seem to recall you saying you were banned from HC. That seems odd, given your style of commentary seems more commensurate with that community.
1) You're new to the forum.
2) Canaussieuck is a regular and pretty well regarded I believe.
You are not going to garner credibility here by bad-mouthing day trading when by your own admission you know nothing of it, big-noting yourself, and directing clearly uninformed comments at accomplished traders (such as MRC).
Here's a tip:
Take a step back. Carefully consider what informed opinion/knowledge you might be able to add to this community. Offer it with a little humility and openness given your admitted lack of experience.
And have a nice day.
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