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I don't normally like to toot my own horn, but "TOOT TOOT"
Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.
Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?
Part of me thinks that this could be signs of recovery, for a couple of reasons.
A) The majority are expecting it to just be a rally, so most investors are treating it with caution.
B) No one expects a recovery to come this early, yet recoveries always come earlier then expected. If they didnt, then everyone would get in at the bottom of the market.
C) Yes unemployment is rising, however the market generally starts to recover before unemployment hits its peak.
D) Australian Business have started to streamline their businesses, much before they came desperate like in the U.S. So by taking cautionary measures, they are going to be in a better position.
E) Interest rates are likely to fall. Combine this with the fact that businesses are becoming more streamlined, there will become a point where companies appear more profitable then low bank interest.
G) Consumers have really tightened their belt in the last 12 months and with lower interest rates, they surely have to becoming more comfortable and confident in their own financial situations.
H) The outlook for the market is bleak, but this has been factored in already.
I) The chances are, that the majority of the investors who sell on a panic, have already fled the market. Any investors that have remained in the market for the past 12 months, have probably come too far to turn back, and are prepared to stick it out, so we are unlikely to see another level of high volume panic selling.
These are just my personal views, and I must admit I am not a financial adviser or scientist for that matter. I do not know the score of pie, and all I am running on is a Tafe Certificate IV in team leadership.
In saying that, I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on my views.
I don't normally like to toot my own horn, but "TOOT TOOT"
"HONK, HONK!!
I don't normally like to toot my own horn, but "TOOT TOOT"
I was going to quote the same post Jeff! I was going to wait a few hundred more points though.
Lets get this sucker back down to 3300!!
G
Metinks the prescribed medicine Mr Market will be forced to quaff for some time to come is called "Massive Dilution Of Share Value Across All Sectors" due to the recent and ongoing SuperTsunami of "capital raisings" by a zillion companies via Mega share placements.
Printing a planetary avalanche of share scrip in a bid for "cash via the backdoor" to keep companies afloat is little different than Treasuries world wide running the money presses flat out.
IMO something had to break sooner or later as far as stock valuations go.
Is this the end of the dead cat?
I think we will soon test the boundaries of the previous bottom, IMO the market stormed back up way to quick, many people will lock in profits and get out for a breather i think.
Although i expect the likes of JB and hardly normal to come out in weeks to come with "record profits" after being stimulated....like to see them back them up in consecutive months after.
I work in the NSW coal mining industry and i can let you know we have not seen the worst of it yet, we are still gearing up for it. The company i work for is looking at closing atleast 2 of it's NSW mines, gave all new consultants the flick from tomorrow and one mine has given all their contractors a months notice. The mine i'm at will be doing the same very soon....if we are still open in a couple of months time.
I fail to see how the likes of BHP and RIO can put on so much of an increase when realistically they are hurting more now than before when the prices were at rock bottom.
we might have seen the low for this bear, we might not. IMO the odds are looking more likely now that we have seen the lowest low,
Imagine what might happen when some really positive economic news/indicators do start to emerge from the US? Ignore this signal at your financial peril!
Are optimists in this climate only ignorant of the facts? Please explain or put forward the data or facts which indicate the end of the bear market was 2 months ago, not just "hope" or "odds"?A report by RealtyTrac showed that the number of U.S. households facing foreclosure jumped 32% in April, and mortgage applications fell last week as fewer homeowners sought to refinance.
Check the revisions - NFP was revised up to near 700,00 for March, expect the same for April.On Thursday, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose 32,000 to 637,000 last week, above expectations, and the highest level since mid-April.
The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.4% in April from the prior month, a steeper decline than the 0.1% slip economists expected. Sales in March were revised down, falling 1.3% instead of 1.2% as previously reported.
When was the last time we saw a major bear market turn around on one low?
Never.
CanOz
Imagine or dream, it's (really positive news) still a concept yet to materialise. You say the market has priced in all the bad news - I say it's priced in the end of the recession, yet I don't see that happening, not within the timeframe given by the green shooter lemming brigade.
The market moving facts are that the driver of the downturn ie US property is still tanking with record defaults. The unemplyment rate is still rising at the rate of over 500,000 people PER MONTH!
Are optimists in this climate only ignorant of the facts? Please explain or put forward the data or facts which indicate the end of the bear market was 2 months ago, not just "hope" or "odds"?
The various stimulii around the world are ephemeral measures which won't create long term employment but will create a huge mountain of debt that in the long run may require to be defalted on ie governments will be insolvent.
Check the revisions - NFP was revised up to near 700,00 for March, expect the same for April.
EDIT: Plus from a purely AU market perspective, public debt does not look being the big issue for us compared to the debt levels in other countries like the US and UK!
Much has been made of the comparitive 'worseness' of other countries, but if the global economy is to even start to look healthy, wouldn't these consumer countries like the US, UK & Japan have to start consuming ie going into more debt? With public debt to GDP of these countries between 70-110%, they are hardly in any state to start consuming our raw materials again in boom qauntities any time soon?
It's still a problem of debt and it still hasn't been adressed.
Maybe this will be the first time the markets don't bounce back, at least for several years, until all the bad debts have been purged and wealth creation is not outsourced to China?
None of the stimulis is aimed at making anything, rather repairing the things neglected after years of underfunding in order to get the golden surplus? Once all is said and done, we will be back where we started, only several 10's of billions more in debt.
**Lots of uber-optimistic political & economist quotes from just before the big downleg in the Great Depression...**
For me double bottom already clearly been played. November lows and lower low in March. The pace of that dewarfs what happened in Depression and yet now the ubber bears saying we are following that to even greater lows.
Rubbish...
We are in for a rocky period I reckon ,could go both ways, however I do view that unless something unprcedented and unforeseen happens of global proportions, Market has everything factored in... including bankruptcy of GM, Slower recovery and negative growth for a few months.
unfortunately many people are bordering clinical depression, bought about by unprecedented global pesimism and media hysteria. They only see the worst..and when recovery happens they will still be in denial!
Small recovery will be PROVEN to be under way from Q3 09, stabilisation into Q4,
upticks of growth by Q1 10.. thats all the sentiment the market needs, as has already been proven..
Guess many people got to have faith in the stocks they hold, and clearly ask yourself what will the SP be in 12-18 months time....if you dont need to sell, why sell ?
If you do not have that faith and think the sky is going to fall in further, sell up ,go to cash, go to the hills, whatever.. We will see you back in 6 months time bitchin about missing this opportunity.... when you are paying another 15%- 25% to get back in..
I bought all my stocks from October 08 to recent and have pretty sizeable profits already in place for my long term sentiment, Im going to take profits and sell down approx 1/3 or my portfolio this coming week and see which direction we are going....
One thing for sure is I will not miss the turn when it eventually happens, a turn is a given not a possiblity!
wheep0
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