Why does it have to be a new bull market? Why can't we just go sideways for awhile?
IMO we will trade sideways for an extended period when a bottom is made, I can't see a new bull kicking off without a solid base.
I simply do not know how this market can turn around and form a new bull market when there is still so much more bad news economically to come.
Why does it have to be a new bull market? Why can't we just go sideways for awhile?
IMO we will trade sideways for an extended period when a bottom is made, I can't see a new bull kicking off without a solid base.
Yes this is very true. Retracement levels are common and this bounce could push up by 38%, 50% or 62%. The reaction at the level of resistence of ~3800 as I said previously is going to determine how high this retracement will go. A slow zig zag drop down will be a bullish signal that this bounce has more to go.
It doesn't mean it is not apart of a more longer term down trend that I believe we are in. I simply do not know how this market can turn around and form a new bull market when there is still so much more bad news economically to come. We must not forget that during the great depression markets rallied some 50% in 1930 before dropping another 90% in 1932. History is your friend.
Remeber that the stock market is not the economy and does not provide a reliable forecasting tool of what is to come economically. We are headed into a debt tsunami that is really unheard of in history. The charts show it and the facts show it. The global economy is in trouble either way (through inflation or bankruptcies, this is the only way out of this mess, unless we just prolong the debt dubble and we will face the same problems again in say 5 yrs time). Economically we are really quite stuffed.
Having said that, the market is obviously still tradable. The economy is not the stock market. You must take advantage of oversold rallies like this one before the next downtrend. Buy and hold is going to be hard over the next few years, trading I think is more favourable.wonder.
Why does it have to be a new bull market? Why can't we just go sideways for awhile?
IMO we will trade sideways for an extended period when a bottom is made, I can't see a new bull kicking off without a solid base.
I still say the only reason the market holds any interest for anybody is that cash has no where else to go, for now..........
I'm still inclined to stick with the bears.
Governments are short-termers these days and I don't think there are as many cheaply accessable resources to fill the void of the pending OTC derivative collapse and quantative easing policy.
One thing that should be mentioned is the fed is attempting to do the exact opposite of what they did during the 1930's depression. Which is one of the reasons we are seeing the massive amount of money printing. Whether this causes problems further down the track (probable) remains to be seen.
Yes that is true but comparing our economic problems to the great depression is silly. People in the Great Depression did not have credit cards or loans off the equity of their house. I think now is much worse because our countries and people are in a lot more debt. In 1920 US debt was $25.9 billion, now it is 10,699 billion!
If the Fed do print enough money though to starve off a depression you would then get massive inflation which will cause currency debasement. People's money will be useless as it won't be able to buy anything. It looks like at the moment this is what the Fed is trying to do. Helicopter Ben would be Mugabe's best centeral banking. The Fed are literally following the Zimbabwe economic school of thought which caused people of that country to be severly iimpoverished.
The point I'm trying to make is you can't get around this issue, in the long run pain has to be felt in an economic sense before we enter prosperous times again and a new period of growth emerges.
This does not mean you cannot do well on the stockmarket though.
W.
Yes, will be interesting to see what happens in the future. Btw that wasn't my opinion; apparently that’s what the Fed is actively trying to do. Reading the prior 30's report and doing the opposite. Well I heard it somewhere (cnbc, or some clown show).
Will that be the US secret weapon, inflate the debt away
Yes, but the rally in 1932 started only 2 months after the start of the decline and peaked 5 months later. We are currently already 18 months in..........then again this rally could be over now, or could last 6+ months......who knowsWe must not forget that during the great depression markets rallied some 50% in 1930 before dropping another 90% in 1932. History is your friend.
Yes I think I heard something like that somewhere as well. As I have said previously, what do you expect from these monkies? I think I would actually recommend doing the exect opposite of what the people at Fed say. I think you would come out the winner on most occasions.Yes, will be interesting to see what happens in the future. Btw that wasn't my opinion; apparently that’s what the Fed is actively trying to do. Reading the prior 30's report and doing the opposite. Well I heard it somewhere (cnbc, or some clown show).
Haha, sadly it looks like that is the cause at the moment.Will that be the US secret weapon, inflate the debt away
So buy property at the ealiest opportunity, ie: when the prices drop but before inflation takes away the value of your cash. (assuming you buy property with cash)
Yes, but the rally in 1932 started only 2 months after the start of the decline and peaked 5 months later. We are currently already 18 months in..........then again this rally could be over now, or could last 6+ months......who knows
No real point, just noting the time frame differences.Yes that is true. I have some figures for you - it only took us less then 350 days to decline by 50%, compared to 73/74 when it tool 437 days. The 2000 to 2003 bear market decline of 50% took 630 days to complete. We were in very oversold territory so a strong rally entailed.
In the long run I don't see how the time frame effects our overall position though - that the economy is stuffed. Could you elaborate on your point a little please and its relevance? wonder.
Yes that is true. I have some figures for you - it only took us less then 350 days to decline by 50%, compared to 73/74 when it tool 437 days. The 2000 to 2003 bear market decline of 50% took 630 days to complete. We were in very oversold territory so a strong rally entailed.
In the long run I don't see how the time frame effects our overall position though - that the economy is stuffed. Could you elaborate on your point a little please and its relevance? wonder.
Hey Mr Burns seems like Charlie was right.
BSL up another 25c today.
You should of held for a profit....lol
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