Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[Sean K]

Factored in

I think I said that on the way down around 4500 too.

:couch

 

[MrBurns]

GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks.

About time ..........perhaps someone will take it over and make it profitable.

 

[wonderrman]

As I've said from a charting perspective the reaction when we hit the 3800 resistence line is most important. If we head straight down on massive selling we will obviously see new lows. If we head down in an "ebb and flow" manner and form a base (a bit short) I think the market is preparing to move higher. The reaction is going to be very interesting and tell us if we are heading down to new lows or preparing to push up to the higher resistence line of ~4400.

Another chart I have shows that we all ready have broken above a longer term resistence line were the line has all ready been touched three times. Not to sure on this one though, see what happens on the retrace, also looks like a weird h&s formation. The RS is a bit higher then the LS though so could be invalid. wonder.

 

[Aussiejeff]

There will be no more "devestating:" news only bad news or slightly worse than expected. The governments of the world have would not have moved forward with the G20 agreements unless there was absolutley no more suprises that could not be at least spun positively.
That with the changes of mark to market accounting will in my opinion drive the market side ways to build a base at around 4000, then its anybodys guess.

Manufactued or not the bottom is in at least for this cycle.

my

G

I'll back your with my...

 

[dlineinvestor]

What is with the having to spend all day behind a computer to trade for a living?

Some guys make millions with 2 hours or less a day.

You can even read about them on the internet if you actually search and don't just read BRW or the local newspaper. And you don't have to be any kind of genius.

MRC & Co

I've often thought how is it done .... being profitable in trading that is without all the hours in front of the screen.
The answer is in your question.
Smart money do not stay in front of computer screens which invariably blinds you from seeing real market signals.
Markets are seasonal ..... they wait. Markets get oversold / overbought .... they wait. Markets move sideways ... they wait.
I have realised that if you just wait for these genuine conditions to arise on longer time frames (daily preferably) then your chances of gains are the same as the smart money.

 

[MRC & Co]

Markets get oversold / overbought .... they wait. Markets move sideways ... they wait.

And therein is where the discipline lies IMHO.

The guys I know of who make the cash with little screen time, have done a LOT of screen time in the past.

They now just trade the most volatile times of the day, in the most liquid markets and do BIG size.

 

[MRC & Co]

That with the changes of mark to market accounting will in my opinion drive the market side ways to build a base at around 4000, then its anybodys guess.

Manufactued or not the bottom is in at least for this cycle.

Yes, I've heard about this new change to the accounting standards, what exactly are they changing (in simple English for my simple mind?).

The second point has me thinking, Governments are really pushing for a manufactured bottom, which I actually could see as a possibility (considering we have nearly seen 3000s), but as you say, for this cycle.

 

[wonderrman]

Jim Cramer has made the call that the "depression is over". Probably his 100th bottom call. Contrarian indicator for me that markets still have a long way to fall!!!!! :

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/30018200#30018200

wonder.

 

[Sean K]

Jim Cramer has made the call that the "depression is over". Probably his 100th bottom call. Contrarian indicator for me that markets still have a long way to fall!!!!! :

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/30018200#30018200

wonder.

Yeah, troubling. Must go short Monday.

He'll get it right one day and be a hero.

Still waiting for the gigantic crash that metric and his champion mate Reinhardt predicted some weeks ago.

 

[ivant]

Haha Cramer's 1429th actually. I counted. He started everyday since mid October 2007. Lol.

Not sure about a gigantic crash you wait for Kennas, but we should get a retest before October.

I think 3800 is max for us on this move. We will have at least a 50% retracement right here. Massively overbought. The only thing thats keeping the market afloat is the institutional buying coming in.

Some interesting things about the US market over this rally,

Approximately 76% of S&P 500 are above their 50 week MA, which usually signals a reversal. The VIX is still very high, despite the rally. The volume seems to be getting weaker, with the exclusion of some days. Crude is at very high levels and screaming a reversal (remember the recent correlation with equities). Oh and we are at some key resistance levels. Also look at Chande's on the 4 hour, 8 hour, Daily. 2 day, weekly pivots are around the 3800 too.

Ive been short since Friday night. I think I will only be increasing positions over Monday. My call is the cat was dead start of the week. We have been rallying on the smell.

 

[Grinder]

Have'nt we been over bought for sometime now?

 

[ivant]

Have'nt we been over bought for sometime now?

what time frame are you looking for? That is the major question. if we look on a monthly basis we are still approaching the oversold satus. if we look at a 4-hour period, we have been overbought for sometime indeed. on a 1 hour even more so. But on a daily basis it just happened

 

[Tysonboss1]

What an interesting day,

We seemed to bounce off 3700 every time we hit it. After closing just shy of the 3700 mark today it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

I am not a techy myself, but I have noticed others here have said that breaking 3700 is an important mark, what are the thoughts now.

Has todays trade given of any clues to where we are headed in the short term.

 

[ojm]

GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks...also quarterly reporting season in the US

I hope not. I like my job. :-(

 

[Nero64]

I have realised that if you just wait for these genuine conditions to arise on longer time frames (daily preferably) then your chances of gains are the same as the smart money.

What about when the DOW went up 1000+ in two days last November, I turned $5000 into $60 000 in paper trading..lol

It's true though. It only takes 1 day to make a whole year or even a few years. The problem is recognising it early and getting onto it.

I was in front of my screen from 6.50am that day, and I watched evey market advance in unison. The prettiest sight I ever saw I had a bit of real money on the Hang Seng. The opening GAP on the second session after lunch was awesome.

 

[psychic]

Its a dead cat bounce for sure, check this news out

Helping drag down futures was a downgrades of 11 major U.S. banks including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) by veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo of CLSA.

Shares of all three firms were more than 3% lower in pre-market trading.

A key implication is that loan losses (to total loans) should increase to levels that exceed the Great Depression

source:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/06/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

 

[So_Cynical]

Who the hell is Mike Mayo....what the hell is Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia


Its a nothing story

 

[psychic]

It certainly made the dow futures dive and now the dow is in free-fall, never underestimate the power of a few stories like this to panic the market.

Remember this current rally was sparked by the rumour that a US bank might actually make a profit this quarter, yeah right

 

[nunthewiser]

lol unreal , no offence intended

 

[Trembling Hand]

It certainly made the dow futures dive and now the dow is in free-fall, never underestimate the power of a few stories like this to panic the market.

I think that is the usual rubbish from the media. the futs were already underwater before that report hit.

Remember this current rally was sparked by the rumour that a US bank might actually make a profit this quarter, yeah right

NOPE.

only if you read hindsight media "analysis" again. Asia &Europe was already running before that one