Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[wonderrman]

That resistence of 3800 should be touched in the next few few days. Personally, I don't think we can push through it because this has been a pretty heavy push up in a short period of time, we need a rest. I don't think this market can go from 3000 to 4500with out a leg down first. Those bulls need to catch their breath.

It will be interesting to see how we react though. If it's a massive drop (fig 1, straight down) on little volume, you would expect a new low. If it's a zig zag, base period (fig 2), you would think the market is preparing to push higher, probably to that 4500 level of resistence. That would give us a massive bear market rally!

I will try and get a chart soon, the one by the above poster is good though.





The tape is your mate. Wonder.

 

[MRC & Co]

I'm was just busting to buy something so I did.

LOL.

Didn't notice that nice trendline nomore drew either, this bounce could end quicker than I thought, 3800s may have even been a little optimistic.

 

[MrBurns]

I remember 9 months ago the Eureka was pointing towards BSL. I'm sure there is a better chance of an increase now.

Is it predictable that bears such as yourself decide to buy now once the market has already just risen? Left behind? Maybe that just keeps that ball on rolling. Never mind, forget my comments. wishing you well.

I'm not a bear just realistic, I could just as well call the bulls reckless fools with no sense of risk.

BSL is at a real low point about now, it will go back up but not sure if I'll bother waiting, see how it goes, only bought 5000 of them so I'm not going to go broke or get rich either way.

 

[psychic]

Next leg down started Friday night in the U.S. April will be a horrid month with reporting season kicking off and major companies with filthy losses being posted.

Ahh and then their is AIG, will she fail this month or next? When she fails this will be spectacular (Dow Jones will drop over 1000 points in a session)

Go short all of April and watch for the new lows

 

[Glen48]

Which way will the G20 drive the market?
Word is the Dow could hit 10K and USD UP then I guess what the G20 decide to do will point us.. I predict the market up while G20 are meeting will be hell to play IF they could out with a new currency as China is worried about their loot and The Yanks could devalue the $ causing China to call USA a pack of BB's.
The market will go down but I think it will be a few more major hiccups before.
I may be right,I maybe be wrong, I maybe crazy...wait I think I have the words for a song...

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I agree Glen,

They have been planning this meeting for a long time and they are not about to come out with negitive news or big supises to scare the markets.
I think they will come out with some "change", "unitied", " never before in history crap remarks" But the public and the markets will eat it up and the dow will sore.
This market overshot to the downside and will overshot to the upside as well.

Those that try to talkdown the market at this stage (huge collapse coming) are doing there best to get in position as they have well and truly missed the boat.

Best

G

 

[psychic]

Many of the G20 nations are arking up and are in complete opposition to more bail-outs, flies in the face of what the US want, so I expect this G20 meeting to end with major nations fighting, disruptions and chaos. History repeats itself and that is exactly what lead to the great depression. Rudd has already sounded the warning signs, look out below

 

[psychic]

Here is the G20 meeting dates


Deputies Meeting 1st February 2009

Officials Workshop Financing for Climate Change 13th & 14th February 2009

Deputies Meeting 13th March 2009

Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting 14th March 2009

Officials Workshop on Global Economy 25th 26th May 2009

Officials Workshop on Sustainable Financing for Development June 2009

Deputies Meeting September 2009

Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting 7th & 8th November 2009

 

[psychic]

Markets don't go up 10% a week for 3 weeks (30% total gain) without a serious correction. Come on guys get with the program, we all know that

 

[wonderrman]

Markets don't go up 10% a week for 3 weeks (30% total gain) without a serious correction. Come on guys get with the program, we all know that

I think that is what I just said in my previous post, number 221. I have no issue with the correction, it has to come. The reaction from the markets and resulting price action is what is important.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Markets don't go up 10% a week for 3 weeks (30% total gain) without a serious correction. Come on guys get with the program, we all know that

But this time it's different

 

[psychic]

Whats different, the fundamentals are still the same. Bear market rallies, Rising rates on unemployment, IMF downgrading global growth even further, GDP results contacting, bank/auto/insurance bailouts still continuing, printing money from thin air, empty promisies etc etc.

May I remind you of this chart

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I was just taking the piss about it being differerent this time even though in alot of ways it is. Do you honestly think we will see unemployment at 25%?

I keep forgeting most on this board are speculators or"traders", I'm sure some do very well but there are allot who are learning "losing money"

Why try to pick the bottom? Can it go much lower than the previous low?, maybe but if your averaging in and have a long term horizon whats the big deal.

This period will just be another trend on a chart someone is looking at in the future. It will have a low/high etc.

Its a zero sum game, for every winner there is a loser.

Best of luck
G

 

[CanOz]

Its a zero sum game, for every winner there is a loser.

Trading is a minus sum game, your forgetting about brokerage. Brokers are the only true winners.

CanOz

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Trading is a minus sum game, your forgetting about brokerage. Brokers are the only true winners.

CanOz

Very wise indeed!

I take it from the name you are Canadian?

GO FALMES GO

G

 

[jet328]

Do you honestly think we will see unemployment at 25%?

Why not?


If you count working one hour a week as being employed, people that have given up looking for work as not unemployed, contractors that are 'employed' but lost most of their work, salesman that are 'employed' yet lost their commissions, people that can only find part time work, birth/death models and rig the figures any way you can, yes we won't see 20%.

However its the real figure that will impact the economy and company profits/losses. Does anyone really believe the current unemployment numbers being dished out? The figures in the 30's were a much more accurate reflection....

 

[Wysiwyg]

Whats different, the fundamentals are still the same. Bear market rallies, Rising rates on unemployment, IMF downgrading global growth even further, GDP results contacting, bank/auto/insurance bailouts still continuing, printing money from thin air, empty promisies etc etc.

I`m thinking that after 30th June, the Australian Taxation Department will be sending tax refunds to many people that have claimed capital losses this financial year.This will be a large drag on the government coffers.

On the other side of these capital loss claims will be more dollars in the claimants pocket as they reduce assessable income and receive a refund.Hence a spend up on the `bargains` (if still around).This could be the turning point if not already happened.

Just my Bob Santamaria.

 

[Beej]

I`m thinking that after 30th June, the Australian Taxation Department will be sending tax refunds to many people that have claimed capital losses this financial year.This will be a large drag on the government coffers.

On the other side of these capital loss claims will be more dollars in the claimants pocket as they reduce assessable income and receive a refund.Hence a spend up on the `bargains` (if still around).This could be the turning point if not already happened.

Just my Bob Santamaria.

Hmmm - that is an interesting theory and personally I would like to see that be the case! However I don't think refunds are given for capital losses per se. You can only use capital losses to offset other capital gains, and if you made no capital gains in the same year as realising losses then you carry the loss forward into the future until eventually you do make a capital gain to offset the loss against.

PS: As for this being recovery or dead cat bounce, I think the rally was rapid because the market was just so over-sold. It's now bounced back off that - but it will probably have some sort of a sell-off again soon. The indicator I will be watching is can we make a higher low this time around - if we do, then I think a bottom would start to look more likely.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Buster]

I`m thinking that after 30th June, the Australian Taxation Department will be sending tax refunds to many people that have claimed capital losses this financial year.This will be a large drag on the government coffers.

On the other side of these capital loss claims will be more dollars in the claimants pocket as they reduce assessable income and receive a refund.Hence a spend up on the `bargains` (if still around).This could be the turning point if not already happened.

I thought a capital loss claim was simply kept on the books in order to offset any capital gain in the future.. so no actual money sent out..

Not a tax expert, just what I'd heard somewhere previously..

Cheers,

Buster

 

[Wysiwyg]

I thought a capital loss claim was simply kept on the books in order to offset any capital gain in the future.. so no actual money sent out..

Not a tax expert, just what I'd heard somewhere previously..

Cheers,

Buster

Traders are considered carrying on a business.The rest will rollover yes.