Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[Sean K]

Opportunities like this come around very rarely, by preparing now and managing your risks it could be life changing imo. Trade what is presented to you by the market and don't let your bias (either way) cloud your judgment as in a few years you could be kicking yourself for missing an opportunity of a lifetime.

My concern is that I've missed the bulk of the bounce, even though I've thown a lot at the bounce as it is. I'm hoping EW is right and that there's a retracement at some near point to make the most of!

 

[gfresh]

lol.. go attack dog Kennas

Can't say I'm hating this , but a little surprised at the ferocity.

I would agree that (our) banks may have made a bottom, unless there is some further catastrophe further on down the track.

 

[aleckara]

The market has rallied too cleanly for me to be easy about it being a recovery.

In the background people are picking a recovery into some date but no one gives reasons why the current trends will stop and a recovery will come to pass. They just say "by 2010" for example.

Personally I think the future is unknown at this stage. I did miss out on the rally yes, but just as it started I could of jumped in and it could of fallen just as it ran out of steam.

Will the rally continue from here? How much longer? I don't think anyone really knows. Just when everyone is confident of a recovery is when some more bad news will come and cause more selling.

Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but every time I've heard that this may be a recovery something that seemed common sense but was ignored comes about. People question their own judgement on WHY when the market is rallying - they assume they must be wrong about the economy and other factors. And when they lose all their money they put in as a result of their lack of conviction they think "I should have picked that - the signs were there". It happens too often. I don't see any different factors or anything happening to get people to lend over the horizon. Australia has more to feel from this in my opinion, and I don't think the US plan will get banks to lend when the economy is going down the toilet. A few more businesses need to go bust (e.g GM maybe) before this is over - even if we have bottomed these companies can't survive too long while we are at a bottom. There are companies out there holding onto the edge off a cliff thinking that if I just hold on a little longer someone or the economy will rescue me. If they lose their grip then the bottom will be lower than now.

 

[roofa]

We may have seen a bottom (or not) but trade the market! Not the current economics! I see threads here now about cars sitting in grave yards and think wow! what an opportunity! I see the price of houses going pear shape and think wow! what an opportunity.

For those who have been prepared for this event and have some cash I think - wow! what an opportunity!!

(not to say the worst is in, or course, but wow! if it goes lower, what an opportunity!!)

Spot on Kennas, I have viewed this as a once in my lifetime opportunity to upgrade a couple of cars in the last few months along with building a portfolio sprinkled with a few blue chips.

 

[Sean K]

lol.. go attack dog Kennas

Can't say I'm hating this , but a little surprised at the ferocity.

I would agree that (our) banks may have made a bottom, unless there is some further catastrophe further on down the track.

Yes, I have totally underestimated this, and I'm much poorer for it.

I was waiting for 27-2800 to put my grandmas kidneys on the line, and it hasn't eventuated. Sad!

But, it still seems like a chance. So, I'm kicking back here, in Lima, with my grandmas kidneys, waiting to put them on black!

Grandma isn't so keen on my plan!

Still a chance that the worst isn't factored in though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Tysonboss1]

Personally I think the future is unknown at this stage. I did miss out on the rally yes, but just as it started I could of jumped in and it could of fallen just as it ran out of steam.

Will the rally continue from here? How much longer? I don't think anyone really knows. Just when everyone is confident of a recovery is when some more bad news will come and cause more selling.

.

Well I think the future is always unknown.

Alot of people miss opportunities because they are scared to lose,

Would Tiger woods have ever made it to the top of the golfing circuit if he was crippled with the fear of losing a ball every time he tee'd off.

 

[Tysonboss1]

But, it still seems like a chance. So, I'm kicking back here, in Lima, with my grandmas kidneys, waiting to put them on black!

Grandma isn't so keen on my plan!

Still a chance that the worst isn't factored in though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Have you got any nephews or neices,... grandma's might be a bit worn out.

 

[korrupt_1]

TRADE THE STOCK MARKET, NOT THE ECONOMY!

+1 to that comment...

I've given up trading 'news and event's... block your ears and disregard everything you read... just trade what you see.

FWIW... this rally is just 'bullsh!t in a bear market'... i wouldn't go out on the limb to say that we're heading back to record highs yet... I will wait for that confirmation... a higher high or lower low before committing serrious money back into the markets.

 

[Grinder]

+1 to that comment...

I've given up trading 'news and event's... block your ears and disregard everything you read... just trade what you see.

FWIW... this rally is just 'bullsh!t in a bear market'... i wouldn't go out on the limb to say that we're heading back to record highs yet... I will wait for that confirmation... a higher high or lower low before committing serrious money back into the markets.

Yep, does'nt make a whole lotta sense but then I can't remmeber when the markets ever did. Bear market rally till proven otherwise and in the meantime just trading what I see & being prepared for a pullback... as there always is.

 

[derty]

Yes, I have totally underestimated this, and I'm much poorer for it.

I'm in the same boat here - didn't expect it to be very long lived with all the bad sentiment out there. Then once it did get some legs I figured it would have a downward correction any day and I still have that feeling. So for this rally I think I am consigned to be sitting on my hands and wait for a pull back or a larger correction.

 

[Sean K]

I'm in the same boat here - didn't expect it to be very long lived with all the bad sentiment out there. Then once it did get some legs I figured it would have a downward correction any day and I still have that feeling. So for this rally I think I am consigned to be sitting on my hands and wait for a pull back or a larger correction.

For those that did buy in close to the lows, the question now is when to take profits! Is this a 20% rally, or a 50% rally? or ?????????????????????????

Then?????????????????????

Economic bears are pointing to some pretty bad news, but just where we go is the question..

 

[MR.]

Was a no brainer really. Those who have stood on the side with their hands behind their backs should take this as a lesson for the next time. And a special mention for the economists: This is the stock market! Not the economy! The stock market does not run on current economics, but future perception of economics!

Lower lows anyone?

lol

lol.. go attack dog Kennas

Kennas, are you blaming "others" for your mistake for not jumping on earlier?

As for the lesson you quoted above, Should then assume what, exactly?
The history of rebounds on the charts perhaps? No brainer? Yes, punters will be punters.

The stock market does not run on current economics, but future perception of economics!

Isn't it funny how the future perception of economics changes the markets just as those historical lows (% of fall) are reached once again?

I'll make my own lessons.

If you had access to unlimited money ie The Fed, wouldn't you be 'tickling' the market at the most opportune times, like this morning's finish? They only have to get past some technically important levels for the tech heads to jump in again and to become self perpetuating until the next set of sobering data eg unemployment. Then again, during the bull, most if not all negative data was comprehensively discarded whilst blinded by the herd mentality & greed.

You could take it as a sure bet that the equity market will be artificially supported by the 'firm' at least in the short term despite the fundamentals? Just don't know how long they can do it before they get found out, like everything else?

I hate being pessimistic and I arn't just tring to justify the recent rise with conspiracies from banks, trusts, "the firm" or whom ever. Just a thought. But the US is out performing almost all other countries. Isn't the US in the most strife?
and perhaps I appear not alone.

 

[Dowdy]

i love all this mass hysteria now to get back in the market, since i'm learning about behavioural finance

Most people forget that the biggest rallies, percentage wise occurred during the great depression.

 

[nunthewiser]

i love all this mass hysteria now to get back in the market, since i'm learning about behavioural finance

Most people forget that the biggest rallies, percentage wise occurred during the great depression.

is a great believer in history

trading , riding , enjoying the hype actually BUT....... we aint hit the bottom overall yet

only my opinion dont care what anyone elses is

 

[Glen48]

IF Mr. Market is going to fall down when can we expect a wobble or some sign?
I predict with in 4 weeks...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

IF Mr. Market is going to fall down when can we expect a wobble or some sign?
I predict with in 4 weeks...

4th qtr US GDP out tonight, but if that don't budgit then..NFP

Tuesday 3 April?

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-EconomicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel

 

[sammy84]

My concern is that I've missed the bulk of the bounce, even though I've thown a lot at the bounce as it is. I'm hoping EW is right and that there's a retracement at some near point to make the most of!

It's an attitude like that, if shared by many, which helps to create a bottom

 

[MrBurns]

I'm not interested in trying to pick the bottom, I'll buy shares when I feel fairly sure all the crap has washed out and the markets have been repaired so companies can deliver dividends I can rely on and reasonable growth.

I can't see that yet, what I do see if a lot of optimism pumped into the market based on very little my opinion.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm not interested in trying to pick the bottom, I'll buy shares when I feel fairly sure all the crap has washed out and the markets have been repaired so companies can deliver dividends I can rely on and reasonable growth.

I can't see that yet, what I do see if a lot of optimism pumped into the market based on very little my opinion.

Agree mate, there are no signs on any chart I've seen that a trading range is about to commence.

Markets don't just shoot back up after a severe downtrend such as this.

gg

 

[MrBurns]

Agree mate, there are no signs on any chart I've seen that a trading range is about to commence.

Markets don't just shoot back up after a severe downtrend such as this.

gg

Saw where someone wrote that rallies such as this suck the remaining cash out of the market before the real downturn, who knows ? but it sounds credible.