Recession? What recession?

mullokintyre · 15 January 2025

The fed data for December is out.
In that month, the Administration paid out $140 billion in interest payments.
The only brought in $211 billion in personal income tax.
US taxpayers would be feeling a tad peeved that 60% of their taxes are going to pay interest on loans for which they are unlikely to recieve any benefit.
Overall, receipts were USD 454 billion, and total outlays were USD 541 billion.
So theres another cool 100 billion added to the debt bill.
Mick

Garpal Gumnut · 15 January 2025

mullokintyre said:
The fed data for December is out.
In that month, the Administration paid out $140 billion in interest payments.
The only brought in $211 billion in personal income tax.
US taxpayers would be feeling a tad peeved that 60% of their taxes are going to pay interest on loans for which they are unlikely to recieve any benefit.
Overall, receipts were USD 454 billion, and total outlays were USD 541 billion.
So theres another cool 100 billion added to the debt bill.
Mick

View attachment 191196

Do you have any figures on Australia outlays v receipts ?

gg

mullokintyre · 15 January 2025

Garpal Gumnut said:
Do you have any figures on Australia outlays v receipts ?

gg

This from Federal Government Stats for November

divs4ever · 15 January 2025

mullokintyre said:
The fed data for December is out.
In that month, the Administration paid out $140 billion in interest payments.
The only brought in $211 billion in personal income tax.
US taxpayers would be feeling a tad peeved that 60% of their taxes are going to pay interest on loans for which they are unlikely to recieve any benefit.
Overall, receipts were USD 454 billion, and total outlays were USD 541 billion.
So theres another cool 100 billion added to the debt bill.
Mick

View attachment 191196

strong and resilient economy .. or so we are told

mullokintyre · 23 January 2025

Credit card delinquencies have had a steep rise , at least in Utah.

On a National level, the picture is not quite as bad, but is heading in the same direction.
Lower interest vrates are unlikely to save a lot of these delinquent payers.
Mick

DannyB0000 · 23 January 2025

mullokintyre said:
The fed data for December is out.
In that month, the Administration paid out $140 billion in interest payments.
The only brought in $211 billion in personal income tax.
US taxpayers would be feeling a tad peeved that 60% of their taxes are going to pay interest on loans for which they are unlikely to recieve any benefit.
Overall, receipts were USD 454 billion, and total outlays were USD 541 billion.
So theres another cool 100 billion added to the debt bill.
Mick

View attachment 191196

I wonder what happens when the Trump administration cuts taxes then. The Americans will rely on tariffs for revenue.

divs4ever · 23 January 2025

DannyB0000 said:
I wonder what happens when the Trump administration cuts taxes then. The Americans will rely on tariffs for revenue.

well i was thinking that was likely
SOME benefit may be derived if the US increases it's self-reliance , but that won't be a rapid solution

some taxes are counter-productive , but will those taxes be culled ( that doesn't happen very often in Australia , we just create more taxes , and government departments )

ARGUABLY if Trump ( completely ) retires some taxes those collection agencies becomes redundant

mullokintyre · 27 January 2025

The following article written in October 2024, highlights the amplified affect that interets rates in japan have on the so called "Carry Trade" where investors have borrowed cheap money in Yen to invest in other items.

It goes on further to highlight just how sensitive this trade is to interest rate changes.

When the Japanese CB recently doubled interest rates to 0.5%, a similar result should be apparent.
And the CB gave no indication that rate rises would end there.

If we look at the futures markets , one can see there is general level of pessimism.
I am anticipating that this pessimism will continue.
Mick

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