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Recession etc, are things really that bad?

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Beej said:
Ie, in 2008, while agricultural and resource exports totalled 44% of AUs total exports, manufactured goods + services + other accounted for the remaining 56%
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Perhaps a more realistic representation would alter your viewpoint?

http://www.dfat.gov.au/PUBLICATIONS/stats-pubs/mtd/australia_trade_0903.pdf

Showing that you some real percentages, and how STM and "others" includes products of mining.

Beej said:
The majority of these manufactured goods and services exports originate from the industrious folks of Sydney and Melbourne - so please don't tell us that we have never seen what an "exporting" port look's like.....
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OK, but then again, there would be a significant proportion made outside of melbourne / capitals. How much mining and farming occurs in Melbourne city and Sydney city?

Port of melbourne : In 2007-08, the ten main containerised commodity exports, in decreasing quantity, were: miscellaneous manufactures, cereal grains, beverages, dairy products, pulp and wastepaper, fruit and vegetables, meat, papeboards & fibreboards, paper and newsprint, stockfeed.

looks quite dependant on rural victoria to just me?
 

You know Beej raises some valid points. Yesterday he was talking about the mininum wage earning LOSERS and their prospects for property ownership over on the deniers of Isaac Newtown's theory of gravity thread. At least he is willing to acknowledge contradicting himself that most of those same LOSERS reside in Sydeny or Melbourne. That's why they same LOSERS are vital to Southern State economies. Anyway I'm off to study a condescending wave chart pattern.

Just to add another note on the education part, historically The School of Mines in Ballarat and later Bendigo were the first geological schools with any notoriety in Australia. Just ask the Directors of BDG or LGL how much stuff they can discover around those areas these days. And of course Ballarat is smack bang in the middle of Melbourne right?
 
Mr J said:
The bias is strong in this thread.
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No, just the ego part.

I'm amazed at how much time Beej took to write all that just to defend two states. Well done!

The whole argument can simply be compressed to the following figures. Gross State Product - ABS - 2007-2008 (in millions)

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/auss...944CCA2575A70020D18E/$File/13500_may 2009.pdf

Section 9.3

New South Wales - $345,336
Victoria - $255,705
Queensland - $209,050
South Australia -$70,922
Western Australia - $146,444
Tasmania - $20,907
Northern Territory - $14,555
ACT - $22,287

Can't we just be friends? Every states need other states? Let the ego go please.
 
Without politicians in Canberra doing whatever wins votes in Sydney and Melbourne we'd have a heck of a lot more manufacturing industry still operating down here in Tasmania.

Aluminium
Pulp
Paper
Tools
Footware
Textiles
Steel alloys
Automotive components
Glass
Zinc

All of those and more have been either wiped out completely, downsized or constrained in their growth as a direct consequence of decisions made in Canberra, Sydney or Melbourne.

What decisions? Well it's a bit hard to actually run any kind of productive industry when even the highest environmental standards in the world aren't good enough, you aren't allowed to build the required infrastructure, decisions take years and you're then somehow expected to compete with foreign countries with no such restrictions and where workers are paid effectively nothing.

And yep, those making the rules then allow the exact same things effectively ruled off limits in Tasmania to be done with little or no restriction in their own states. A situation that sounds more like economic bullying than objective policy formation to me...

It's not Sydney or Melbourne per se that are the problem. It's the head in the sand mentality that seems to only exist in those places that is the problem. Sadly, an awful lot of people in those two cities just don't seem to get it in terms of how just about anything is actually produced. Then they hear some lobbyist with a vested interest, decide to stop anyone producing it in Australia, and we end up importing it instead. Sad but true and the economic cost is huge.

You have milk because someone clearfelled a forest, planted grass, put cows on the land, milks the cows, transports the milk in a truck running on diesel and puts it in containers made from plastic or cardboard.

You have diesel and petrol because someone drove thumper trucks across the landscape, spent a fortune drilling holes, made a mess in the process and then found some oil.

You have your morning paper because someone logged a forest, put the trees on a log truck that weighs 43 tonnes, turned the trees into woodchips, pulped the chips, turned the pulp into paper in a mill that uses massive amounts of power and even more water, put the paper onto trucks which took it to the printers who then printed the paper.

You have water because someone put huge holes in the ground mining limestone and coal, put those into a furnace to produce concrete and used that concrete to dam a river, flooding some scenic area in the process.

Your car is a 1.5 tonne lump of steel, aluminium, copper, sand, petroleum and a range of minor components. And the roads you drive it on are built from blue metal that came from a quarry plus bitumen that comes from oil.

Your house is built on what was once an old growth forest that someone clearfelled. And the house itself came from clay, coal, trees, iron, copper, sand and a few other bits and pieces.

Sitting in an office shuffling money about isn't productive industry. It has a role to play yes, but when those doing it seek to destroy productive industry either for financial gain or because they simply don't like what it involves, well that's ultimately the path to economic ruin. Mines, mills and smelters actually create wealth. Trading and financial engineering doesn't.
 
You have just been schooled hillbillys now go back to drinking XXXX
 
The reality is no-one saw it coming...Unscrupulous lending called NINJA loans ( No Income No Job Applicants were rife in USA..as investors just kept pouring money into the fiscal system and brokers creating loans funded by these lenders..Now we are faced with the worst recession in living history , and one not to be ever seen again...The good news is we will come out of it around the end of 2010 once investor confidence and big business comes back...The biggest issue our Gov will face is making sure property prices do not crash as the employment rate increases towards the end of this year...At least we are all part of the history books as the nation that lived through the greatest world recession....
 

Really? So far we are seeing nothing like the dire misery of the Great Depression and are unlikely to.

"One not to be ever seen again": how do you know? Why would we be immune from the effects of greed and stupidity in the future?

And as has already been noted, plenty of us saw it coming and took the appropriately protective measures.
 
Anyone who has any lingering thoughts about where we are headed and whether or not we have seen a market bottom will have their doubts dispelled by John Mauldin:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...chive/2009/05/23/the-paradox-of-deficits.aspx

Just a sample: To February 2009 - China's exports down 41%, Japan's down 38%, US down 22% etc. etc. Also you might like to think about the enormous deficit that the US and other countries are facing. We are a long way from the market bottom. Chris Leithner ( http://www.leithner.com.au/newsletter/jun09_newsletter.pdf ) has made a strong case that the ASX could fall as far as 2100 or more and I fear he may be right.
 

Except for these ones...


As usual, you would only know it is a recession for sure if you are one of those unfortunate enough to be directly impacted.

If you are really unfortunate, you might have (a) lost your job through no fault of your own, (b) lost most of your cash/share investments through no fault of your own, (c) lost your home through default as a result of (a)+(b) & even lost your family as a result of (a)+(b)+(c).

If you ARE in that worst-case-scenario category, for sure you would liken your personal circumstances to the 1930's gloom.

I presume not many of those 1,800 waiting for "affordable" public housing in Blacktown are members of this forum.

Best of luck for us then, eh??....


aj
 

Oh please!! You are kidding!!
 
AMC said:
At least we are all part of the history books as the nation that lived through the greatest world recession....
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I really don't think it's that bad yet in the real economy. I'm sitting in Budapest at the moment and the town is still rather unaffected. People are shopping, dining in expensive restaurants, there's still a bank branch in every second store and there's still plenty of new investment coming in.

And this in a country that's already received a USD 25 billion lifeline.

If this is as bad as it gets, then its either not that bad or we've got a long way to go yet.
 
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