QAN - Qantas Airways

[qldfrog]

I’ve never had much success catching a falling knife. Before CV19 Qantas was performing well and is well run company. Given the brand and national importance I’ve heard commentary that the government would bail qantas out if required. If this were all true it would surely make QAN one of the best leverage plays to a recovery in the global travel industry ??
China seems to be past peak infection rates, with Europe 1-2 weeks away and Australia 4 weeks away from peak CV19 according to some commentators does this mean we could see some normality by year end for QAN?

If peak cv19 is in a month, we can open the bubbly....so wish you were anywhere right.. even 2 months,
In one month, we will be where Italy is today,and still not learning anything from their experience

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Didn't I read somewhere that QAN gets something in the order of 30% of its profit from associated activity, the lounge, the frequent flyer program, the marketing for wine, etc

Am thinking of liquidating my Qantas points (inFrequent Flyer) and turning them into wine.

I know the rational / optimal action is to utilise for future flights, but
- am unlikely to fly soon
- if I do travel, some bargains may be thrown up; cheap tix with any number of airlines
- QAN likely to devalue the FF points even more, as the balance sheet gets pressured
- wine is delivered to my door

And lo, as the economy shuts down, at least they're trying for max profits.

The earlier dozen reds on offer two weeks ago: 30,200 points for $179 RRP

....this morning's offer: 43,930 points for a dozen reds $155 RRP

Of course the pricing behind these deals is rather suss, but am I seeing a hard working algorithm trying to earn a bob or two?

 

[frugal.rock]

Good pickup @Dona Ferentes
Most people wouldn't notice, am guessing.
Maybe Qantas have realised that, cat's out of the bag now though!

So going from 169 points to a dollar, up to 283 points for a dollar.
Down ~%60.value.. not sure if that calc is correct...? though...

It's one way to reduce costs... at the expense of NOT rewarding people as well as before.
I wonder if it is a blanket decrease % across the board value change over all the rewards offerings goods?

F.Rock

 

[Country Lad]

Didn't I read somewhere that QAN gets something in the order of 30% of its profit from associated activity, the lounge, the frequent flyer program, the marketing for wine, etc

That's correct, last financial year when they were looking to sell it for a number of Billion $, the Loyalty Program made up 29.6% of the overall profit.

 

[Padowan]

I’ve never had much success catching a falling knife. Before CV19 Qantas was performing well and is well run company. Given the brand and national importance I’ve heard commentary that the government would bail qantas out if required. If this were all true it would surely make QAN one of the best leverage plays to a recovery in the global travel industry ??
China seems to be past peak infection rates, with Europe 1-2 weeks away and Australia 4 weeks away from peak CV19 according to some commentators does this mean we could see some normality by year end for QAN?

QAN has bounced hard from 19 March from 2.08 to 3.35, any recovery from here feels like a slow grind

 

[darkfireraven]

What is the effect of the QAN post-market close announcements on 9/4/20 re: NED share plan?
Just that those shares are not issued to NEDs?

 

[qldfrog]

Hum did not released the jump, how expensive is it to short now?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

on the day that Virgin Airways Holdings VAH lost an H and went plain ol' VA*, the reaction of QAN was muted, to say the least. QAN has its own problems; competition isn't one of them at present
.
.

*Voluntary Administration

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

on the day that Virgin Airways Holdings VAH lost an H and went plain ol' VA*, the reaction of QAN was muted, to say the least. QAN has its own problems; competition isn't one of them at present
.
.

*Voluntary Administration

I wonder when QAN will pay the next dividend? Surely capital growth must be hard to invest on, unless you think enough people are willing to run with the herd! But when are the international borders coming down?

 

[dutchie]

QAN -shares to be diluted. Asking for $1.9 bn.

 

[qldfrog]

an airline is not exactly a truck company which can park for 6 months, planes need servicing, pilot accreditations etc; whether you fly passengers or not, the operational costs are still very high as are obviously the capital costs, it is no surprise airlines are basket cases at the moment, buy the dip lol

 

[dutchie]

Not looking too good. If in an ABC correction and if Wave C = Wave A then QAN is gone.
Not my cup of tea at moment.

 

[over9k]

The problem is victoria - there's already talk of a travel bubble between the other states etc. There's also the mask factories coming online in august.

Certainly not a short position, but some good value for someone wanting to hold long.

 

[Smurf1976]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...covery-from-coronavirus-will-be-slow/12391042

Joyce is expecting Australia's international border to remain closed, at least for tourists, until July next year.

Even when that border reopens, he is expecting the number of international flights in 2021-22 to be just half of what they were before the coronavirus pandemic

It seems that management isn't expecting international travel to happen, at all, over the next 12 months. Wow......

Assuming that's correct, I wonder how difficult it then becomes to get back up and running normally?

I'm thinking in terms of suppliers or even airports going broke and things like that. I have no firm figures but my logic is that if no money's coming in for international travel and domestic's well below normal then even if Qantas itself survives there's probably going to be some difficulties with suppliers, pilots and other things potentially in short supply once a rebound does occur.

 

[over9k]

Things will not return to normal RE: aviation until there's a vaccine.

 

[Boggo]

Things will not return to normal RE: aviation until there's a vaccine.

It's my understanding that there may never be a vaccine to prevent Corona Virus.
At best maybe a treatment vaccine once you have contracted the virus similiar to current treatment only of both SARS and HIV once infected.

 

[over9k]

Nah they'll figure something out - it's this generation's manhattan project.

 

[qldfrog]

Things will not return to normal RE: aviation until there's a vaccine.

So never unless we create a pretend vaccine..well under way it seems

 

[qldfrog]

Why a vaccine, use masks,
Sick people dying at 1pc rate if over 80...
The world will not stop for a relatively benign virus, the real issue is when will the government accepts this, the longuer Australia wait, the more the disadvantage for qan vs competitors
Go BA or UA if you want to play the rebound..they will reopen earlier..then do you really want to play airlines shares when the western airlines are competing with Emirates or Asia?

 

[MovingAverage]

Not looking too good. If in an ABC correction and if Wave C = Wave A then QAN is gone.
Not my cup of tea at moment.

View attachment 105210

Nice chart analysis But no need for a chart if you have a quick look at yesterdays news--$1.9 bill capital raise, at least new 6000 redundancies and unlikely international flights until July next year. QAN have some very major challenges ahead for sure