QAN - Qantas Airways

[PZ99]

Thanks for that

 

[tinhat]

Capital return and consolidation, now trading as QANDA

I'll take that as a comment.

 

[McLovin]

I'll take that as a comment.

Zing!

 

[notting]

Capital return and consolidation, now trading as QANDA

Apparently the staff turned into a pack of half witted gibbering monkeys as soon as the ticker changed to qanda and are extremely frustrating to watch.

 

[luvbhatnagar]

With the name changes (and consequent code change back to QAN) wonder how many punters have clicked on to the fact that their number of units have decreased by 7% (ie 93% of original holdings) while the share price has been on a steady slide down ....

 

[Evwardo]

Qantas

Hello,

I have approximately $5000 worth of Qantas shares and I am contemplating selling them. Could someone please explain to me how the announced buyback may effect me? Should i sell now, wait for the buyback or hang on to them for a while longer.
Cheers

 

[notting]

Well guess that's the end of the uptrend.
Don't ya hate it when you don't even get even half a day to get set!

cutting back planned flights on domestic routes in response to reduced demand from Australians worried about the economy and the upcoming election.

How we worry :dunno::dunno::dunno:

Yeah that's it for me. No more interstate travel, there's an election on and I'm worried about the economy.

 

[Porper]

Some on here may recognize this chart from elsewhere.

Rising wedge also known as an Ending Diagonal triangle with bearish divergence isn't a good recipe. Target - origin of the pattern as a minimum.

 

[skc]

Well guess that's the end of the uptrend.
Don't ya hate it when you don't even get even half a day to get set!



How we worry :dunno::dunno::dunno:

Yeah that's it for me. No more interstate travel, there's an election on and I'm worried about the economy.

I wonder if the election affecting travel is actually a real observed phenomenon (or a lame excuse).

The fact that QAN decided to hide the capacity reduction information in the back of a seemingly regular and innocent monthly statistics announcement... naughty naughty :nono:

If I was only smart enough to short FLT and CVO at the open. :bad:

 

[VSntchr]

I wonder if the election affecting travel is actually a real observed phenomenon (or a lame excuse).

My thinking would be that any downturn in travel as a result of the election would be majority corporate. I'm not observing anyone I know delaying their holiday...
If this was the case then no-one would ever go anywhere in Australia at the rate we have elections

The fact that QAN decided to hide the capacity reduction information in the back of a seemingly regular and innocent monthly statistics announcement... naughty naughty :nono:

They hid it well enough for me to miss it!

If I was only smart enough to short FLT and CVO at the open. :bad:

I probably would have shorted CTD and yelled at it for not co-operating like FLT and CVO did all day!

 

[Junior]

Morgan Stanley aren't fazed. Target price lowered from $5.40 to $5.15.

QAN's first downgrade in 2 years ends the momentum trade:

Following Mar-16 traffic, 3Q16 RASK looks like it declined at least 4%, a sharp drop from 2% growth achieved in 1H16. 2H16 capacity guidance has been revised lower in Domestic and International. Extrapolating this forward, we lower FY16 revenue forecasts by 1.6%, resulting in a -10% PBT impact, offset mildly by fuel changes (we were previously at 'worst case' FY16 guidance). At the revenue line, positive near-term revisions appear to be over, signaling the end of the QAN momentum trade, with the stock down ~11% as a result.

Downgrade is lower than headlines suggest, and fuel still remains a buffer:

Headline 3Q16 RASK growth was -4%, though Cricket World Cup (A$50mn), Mining (~$25mn) and Easter/school holiday timing all played a role, with the organic decline in 3Q RASK probably closer to ~2%. With competition still mild, downgrades look more attributable to broker exuberance and a dip in cyclical demand. Looking forward, we think some RASK decline will be offset by stronger 4Q16 capacity management and see scope for more fuel gains, with spot AUD Brent equating to a ~20% FY17 PBT buffer.

Forecast 12MF capital returns of A$1bn remain the real valuation story:

We continue to see QAN's FCF profile as defendable, distributable and excessively discounted. Our new forecasts, which incorporate the top of management's capex guidance range, still produce a FCF yield of 14.5%, which absent a sustained decline in operating conditions, should be largely distributable. We expect another buy-back to be announced at the August FY16 result, followed by a fully franked dividend thereafter, taking total 12MF capital returns to A$1bn and a yield of +13%.

Where could we be wrong?

Retail data doesn't point to a step shift down in consumer confidence, raising risks there is something more fundamental in the March data that we haven't appreciated. That said, Qantas is still an airline, demand is still cyclical and we are giving management the benefit of the doubt. We assume negative RASK growth continues into 2H16, but not 1H17. A more meaningful rout in FY17 demand is not in our expectations.

 

[notting]

I probably would have shorted CTD and yelled at it for not co-operating like FLT and CVO did all day!

If only i was smart enough to do that yesterday!
Still just hanging on to its collapsed staircase up Chanel.
I already had a little one on VAH, tiny bit of consultation.

 

[GPO]

Morgan Stanley aren't fazed. Target price lowered from $5.40 to $5.15.

What keeps surprising me is the substantial difference between the target price and current stock price ($5.15-$3.26)/$3.26=58%. There aren't many decent cap companies out there matching this, are there? All of you with much long experience in trading/investing - why is that? Why aren't people jumping on it?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Why aren't people jumping on it?

I ask that question myself all the time. The rising oil price, which equates to higher aviation fuel costs, broke the up trend. I don't believe price target guesses.

 

[GPO]

I ask that question myself all the time. The rising oil price, which equates to higher aviation fuel costs, broke the up trend. I don't believe price target guesses.

I would assume they're not just guesses and all the smart estimators would've taken the oil price outlook into account in one way or another (which seems to fluctuate around the current price for the next year or so)

 

[Wysiwyg]

I would assume they're not just guesses and all the smart estimators would've taken the oil price outlook into account in one way or another (which seems to fluctuate around the current price for the next year or so)

Nuh. They simply adjust the guess price down (or up) as the present realities unfold.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Interesting relationship between the ASX Energy Sector (XEJ)and QAN. The break of XEJ trend in October 2014 really attracted buyers to QAN and from that week we can see any correlation break down completely.

 

[rb250660]

Hasn't this taken off since breaking thru' 4.200. Nice little push today too.

I hold from 4.860 on 22/05/2017

 

[notting]

Double top, with a pop.
The entire markets are due for correction and things like JHX, CSL TLS, BSL, WHC, have already appeared to look exhausted and some have turned already. These being some who led up the market after the GFC with extremely strong trends.
QAN is another.
Report today was mediocre despite Alan Joyce screaming at the top of his voice that it's the second biggest profit ever for QAN to drown out the less stella last few months.
He's done a magnificent job. But again one must wonder if the buy back is truly valuable and not just another glamorous spring board for Alan to leap off!!!
My interpretation of today's action thus far was fundamental selling followed by naive buying then short covering.
Looking for a turn!!

 

[systematic]

Looking for a turn!!

Hope not, I've only been in less than a month!