QAN - Qantas Airways

[McLovin]

Down 17% today. Another disappointing set of numbers. There must be a way to trade Qantas with some sort of options spread because it is so volatile around the time it reports.

I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.

 

[Boggo]

...

I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.

Wasn't it Qantas who objected to the government helping Ansett, funny how the wheel turns eh

This will solve their problems...
http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airlines/uniforms/global/en

 

[skc]

Down 17% today. Another disappointing set of numbers. There must be a way to trade Qantas with some sort of options spread because it is so volatile around the time it reports.

I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.

Good old Charlie was spruiking QAN just a few months ago.

Very good shorting on the open. Filled at 109, covered at 100. That's precision trading! (Position too small as always )...

 

[McLovin]

Good old Charlie was spruiking QAN just a few months ago.

Charlie "buy on weakness" Aitken?

My favourite quote of his from back in 2008...

The whole sub-prime issue is over-stated and losses/defaults will be nowhere near where the armageddonists believe.

Very good shorting on the open. Filled at 109, covered at 100. That's precision trading! (Position too small as always )...

Nice work. It must throw up a few trading opportunities.

 

[skc]

Charlie "buy on weakness" Aitken?

There it is...

The stars are aligning for Qantas, with bottom up fleet efficiency initiatives combining with an improving domestic economy. Charlie Aitken says Qantas is a “strong buy” under $1.50 – his target is $3.00.

http://www.switzersuperreport.com.au/author/charlie-aitken/

 

[McLovin]

There it is...



http://www.switzersuperreport.com.au/author/charlie-aitken/

Just ridiculous. QAN floated at $2 almost 20 years ago and is at half that value today. He makes it sound like all they need to do is clean the toilets a bit faster and get the plane back in the air and all the problems will go away.

 

[MrBurns]

Charlie Aitken,,,,ahh yes I recall losing money following his tips a while ago.

How on earth does he keep his job ?

 

[McLovin]

Charlie Aitken,,,,ahh yes I recall losing money following his tips a while ago.

How on earth does he keep his job ?

Well he is a broker, so telling you to buy something with the intention of holding it for 10 years isn't how he's paid.

Aside from that, doesn't his family own a substantial part of Bell Potter?

 

[MrBurns]

Well he is a broker, so telling you to buy something with the intention of holding it for 10 years isn't how he's paid.
Aside from that, doesn't his family own a substantial part of Bell Potter?

This sort of advice should be regulated more, I wonder how much money the "expertise" of Aitkin has cost people.

Friend of a mate of mine was a broker, he eventually got out because......he could no longer stand lying to his clients, true story.

 

[McLovin]

This sort of advice should be regulated more, I wonder how much money the "expertise" of Aitkin has cost people.

I think it should be unregulated for two reasons:

a) How does one prove the advice was bad? It is afterall just an opinion. Even if it turns out to be wrong it doesn't mean it was bad advice. At the very most, an AFSL should tell you that this person isn't going to act in a criminal way with your money, nothing more.

b) If it's not regulated people will be a bit more cautious in who they take advice from.

But that's for another thread.

 

[MrBurns]

I think it should be unregulated for two reasons:

a) How does one prove the advice was bad? It is afterall just an opinion. Even if it turns out to be wrong it doesn't mean it was bad advice.

b) If it's not regulated people will be a bit more cautious in who they take advice from.

But that's for another thread.

The advice is given in such a way as to sound quite credible and there's never a disclaimer given,,,,

 

[skc]

I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.

May be the government can play private equity. Take QAN national, supply with cheap funding, reduce salaries at the top, sell off assets then re-float it 5 years down the road.

Is there an implicit acknowledgement that QAN will be propped up in the event of bankruptcy? VAH picked up the slack of Ansett, who's going to pick up the scraps of QAN if the worst happen?

Another thing I found interesting... QAN is one of the more prolific users of management consultants. Boston Consulting Group was the one that helped setting up the Jetstar brand to squeeze Virgin into the "middle". But QAN has started using Bain & Co since 2011... who also advised Ansett before its demise. One would hope the lessons have been learnt.

 

[McLovin]

May be the government can play private equity. Take QAN national, supply with cheap funding, reduce salaries at the top, sell off assets then re-float it 5 years down the road.

Is there an implicit acknowledgement that QAN will be propped up in the event of bankruptcy? VAH picked up the slack of Ansett, who's going to pick up the scraps of QAN if the worst happen?

If they shut down QFi then the domestic business and J* as a regional discount airline is probably going to do OK. I actually think the domestic business isn't that bad. If Qantas concedes market share to Virgin then the two can act like a cosy little duopoly. The Middle East carriers are going to keep smashing Qantas. Emirates just ordered another 50 A380, which takes them to 41 in service and 99 on order (Qantas 12 with 8 on order). The funny thing is without the Emirates orders the A380 would have been a failure in terms of orders. Emirates also will have 115 ultra long haul 777, with an option for another 50. They're going to have so much capacity they could just swamp Qantas. I wonder how long until Emirates asks for permission to fly to LA via Sydney/Melbourne.

I was speaking to someone who works for Qantas and he reckons management is lining up the business to eventually shut down international ops and force it to be the government's problem. That certainly seems to be how Joyce is positioning the company, outsourcing most flights to Emirates and continually lamenting the large losses QFi runs at. Given the historic importance of Qantas to many Australians, they (management) are probably doing the right thing in making it a government issue.

 

[Boggo]

At last count I think there are 43 airlines worldwide operating possibly the best aircraft in the world, the Boeing 777, how many have QF got; answer is none.
Instead they operate the oldest 767's in the world and they expect to be able to compete !
I can see why AJ is using the old 'cost of fuel' trump card again, it is probably true in their case.
On the subject of cases, I wonder if they still get the pallet of Grange Hermitage for upper management at Xmas

 

[McLovin]

At last count I think there are 43 airlines worldwide operating possibly the best aircraft in the world, the Boeing 777, how many have QF got; answer is none.
Instead they operate the oldest 767's in the world and they expect to be able to compete !
I can see why AJ is using the old 'cost of fuel' trump card again, it is probably true in their case.
On the subject of cases, I wonder if they still get the pallet of Grange Hermitage for upper management at Xmas 

To be fair, they only use 767 on domestic routes and they were supposed to be replaced but the 787s are running late. You'd struggle to put a 777 on domestic routes.

 

[banco]

May be the government can play private equity. Take QAN national, supply with cheap funding, reduce salaries at the top, sell off assets then re-float it 5 years down the road.

That would be the worst of all worlds. They wouldn't be in a good position to take on the unions and if they re-float it in five years and don't change the foreign ownership restrictions they'd be back at square one within a few years.

 

[Boggo]

To be fair, they only use 767 on domestic routes and they were supposed to be replaced but the 787s are running late. You'd struggle to put a 777 on domestic routes.

The only run where the 767 is of any value is domestic where they are trying to go head to head with VB's A330's.
The triple is at best on long haul so yes you would struggle if you decided to put it on domestic, it should be on the routes where they have their 747's.
Take Cathay and Emirates as a couple of examples where the triple replaced the B747.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just ridiculous. QAN floated at $2 almost 20 years ago and is at half that value today. He makes it sound like all they need to do is clean the toilets a bit faster and get the plane back in the air and all the problems will go away.

I must admit to being blindsided by all this kerfuffle about Qantas being near broke.

Thankfully I have never owned shares in QAN, a brief foray in to VAH left me lucky to exit at breakeven. Investing in airlines is for the birds.

I must also admit, since some disgraceful lousy service on Virgin, to being wedded to Qantas as a passenger, spending many frequent pleasant afternoons of late throwing back double G and T's, and those dreadful near nut crunchie things, in the Qantas Lounge, prior to entering the exit row.

I do like the soup.

In an effort to support our national carrier, I will now not eat those dreadful near nut crunchie things.

Sacrifices need to be made, belts tightened and so on and so forth.

I do not however see QAN as a buy, as I know their customer base is such as I, venal, greedy and fickle.

gg

 

[McLovin]

Take Cathay and Emirates as a couple of examples where the triple replaced the B747.

Ahhh...I have a Cathay flight next week all the way to Heathrow. I'd never go back to Qantas business once I tried Cathay/Singapore. Even British is better than Qantas.

The upper deck on the 747 still wins, IMO. Quiet as hell and feels like a "cabin".

I think I do much flying

 

[Smurf1976]

What a pathetic joke this mob have become.

Just before 10am this morning I received a text message saying that my flight (Jetstar) supposed to leave at 3:10pm this afternoon is delayed until 6:25pm due to delays with an inbound aircraft.

The web link provided to retrieve booking details doesn't work. And they are still selling seats on this flight, supposedly leaving at 3:10pm, two hours later for $349.

I'll be flying Virgin from now on. Another customer lost not due to the delay as such, but due to the sheer amount of stuffing around and outright dishonesty.