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Kennas
Do you think there could be any geo-political instability now that PRU have divested their stake in Manas and the US are pulling out of Kyrgzstan?
PRU - Perseus Mining
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Kennas
Do you think there could be any geo-political instability now that PRU have divested their stake in Manas and the US are pulling out of Kyrgzstan?
Sean K
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Not sure what you exactly mean GL. You mean instability in Kyrg because US pull out, or because of Manas? LOL. I assume just because of the US. I have no idea. Is there some policical problems there? Russia about to take them back now?
Not sure how much losing Manas would mean to PRU now really.
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Not sure what you exactly mean GL. You mean instability in Kyrg because US pull out, or because of Manas? LOL. I assume just because of the US. I have no idea. Is there some policical problems there? Russia about to take them back now?
Well 'Manas' is the actual name of the US Base in Kyrgyzstan? But they will be leaving the country very soon!
I'm just thinking of sovereign risk and how the market may interpret that? :dunno:
the states said it was just a push for funding, tho seemed geniumenely supprised at the statement. but putin has promised them a lot of dosh if they turn away from the states.
piggy in the middle, makes it worse since the promised surge in afghanistan.
a little irrelevant to the investments there tho i suspect. and you assume one of the stans can be bought out and bribed by the states.
tho it seems its in line with putin's use of this crisis to regain control of the region and his country.
ps a us base must generate an awful lot of goodwill and dosh. whats more interesting is if the russians will keep their strategic and old black? sea base.
thats a hell of a thick vein, 150m.
there's just too many possible earners, too little time.
no wonder it had a good week. i wonder when bhp will start targetting some resources. they must know now how china will go to some degree, have dumped the ugly scar of ravensthorpe, plus have an idea on what rio will sell.
it takes time to do some initial due dilligence before you act too.
i guess whats in doubt is how much the chinese can get out of rio, and whats left for bhp.
there's just too many possible earners, too little time.
no wonder it had a good week. i wonder when bhp will start targetting some resources. they must know now how china will go to some degree, have dumped the ugly scar of ravensthorpe, plus have an idea on what rio will sell.
it takes time to do some initial due dilligence before you act too.
i guess whats in doubt is how much the chinese can get out of rio, and whats left for bhp.
From the Garimpeiro column in today's Age. Perseus gets a mention as potential takeover target...
THERE is a big contingent of Australians heading off to South Africa for this week's Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.
Indaba is as big as mining conferences get, and while you would think numbers will have to be down because of the global financial crisis, there is an expectation that the surge in demand for gold equities in response to the GFC means that the place will at least be crawling with gold miners and dealmakers.
The Canadians in particular are expected to be out in force. A host of Canadian miners have capitalised on gold's spurt to raise big licks of cash in recent times. Now they have to find something to spend it on and the back rooms of Indaba could just serve up the right sort of opportunity.
That's why we have seen the run-up in ASX-listed gold stocks that have Africa as their focus. Garimpeiro has mentioned previously that a stock like Perth-based Perseus is set to become the subject of interest to the growth hungry and now cashed-up Canadians.
Melbourne-based Mineral Deposits Ltd (ASX:MDL) is another case in point. It is only a month or so away from pouring first gold at its Sabodala gold project in the far west of Senegal.
Canada's Red Back Mining (it was originally floated in Australia), which moved on to MDL's share register last year with a 13 per cent stake, has recently raised $US123 million ($A194 million) and confessed that it liked Sabodala a lot.
No bid has emerged, but MDL closed on Friday at 70 cents a share, which is more than double its 28 cents a share low back in November.
In a recent research note, Wilson HTM analyst Keith Williams had a buy recommendation on the stock, which he valued at $1.70 a share but with a heavily discounted (60 per cent) price target of 92 cents a share.
THERE is a big contingent of Australians heading off to South Africa for this week's Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.
Indaba is as big as mining conferences get, and while you would think numbers will have to be down because of the global financial crisis, there is an expectation that the surge in demand for gold equities in response to the GFC means that the place will at least be crawling with gold miners and dealmakers.
The Canadians in particular are expected to be out in force. A host of Canadian miners have capitalised on gold's spurt to raise big licks of cash in recent times. Now they have to find something to spend it on and the back rooms of Indaba could just serve up the right sort of opportunity.
That's why we have seen the run-up in ASX-listed gold stocks that have Africa as their focus. Garimpeiro has mentioned previously that a stock like Perth-based Perseus is set to become the subject of interest to the growth hungry and now cashed-up Canadians.
Melbourne-based Mineral Deposits Ltd (ASX:MDL) is another case in point. It is only a month or so away from pouring first gold at its Sabodala gold project in the far west of Senegal.
Canada's Red Back Mining (it was originally floated in Australia), which moved on to MDL's share register last year with a 13 per cent stake, has recently raised $US123 million ($A194 million) and confessed that it liked Sabodala a lot.
No bid has emerged, but MDL closed on Friday at 70 cents a share, which is more than double its 28 cents a share low back in November.
In a recent research note, Wilson HTM analyst Keith Williams had a buy recommendation on the stock, which he valued at $1.70 a share but with a heavily discounted (60 per cent) price target of 92 cents a share.
Sean K
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Tengrela SS out and this is paying for itself after a couple of years simlar to the other thing.
NPV of $130m just on this which was it's entire MC a few weeks ago. Add in the main event and if POGs staying around SS perameter levels all looks good.
On this and their other thing they're projecting 300m oz au pa, with Capex repaid after 2 years.
Nice little add on perhaps. No wonder there's talk.
Happy for NCM or LGL to pick them up...
NPV of $130m just on this which was it's entire MC a few weeks ago. Add in the main event and if POGs staying around SS perameter levels all looks good.
On this and their other thing they're projecting 300m oz au pa, with Capex repaid after 2 years.
Nice little add on perhaps. No wonder there's talk.
Happy for NCM or LGL to pick them up...
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Thanks Kennas for bringing the report highlights.
I am sure PRU board will love what you said about take over. My feelings are they are more looking some one to buy and making the project as attractive as they can.
With 17 months pay back period and considering the low AUS dollar is a temporary phenomenon for 12 months, high Gold price assumption of US $850/Oz for the scoping study is making the expected profit figure too high.
That could probably explain market's price discount after the announcement.
NOt sure and would like to know your and others analytical thoughts.
Sean K
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A chart perspective.
Has hit some resistance around the 85 mark. I thought 70 was tough too but it seemed to slide through there OK. That should now be support, along with 60 old resistance, which is all around the upward trend line.
Damn, that spike in mid Dec after basing and potential breakout was a retrospective no-brainer.
Overall looks like a pretty nice C&H set up, if the handle appears with the consolidation happening here. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
POG and market meltdown will melt this basic TA to the floor.
Has hit some resistance around the 85 mark. I thought 70 was tough too but it seemed to slide through there OK. That should now be support, along with 60 old resistance, which is all around the upward trend line.
Damn, that spike in mid Dec after basing and potential breakout was a retrospective no-brainer.
Overall looks like a pretty nice C&H set up, if the handle appears with the consolidation happening here. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
POG and market meltdown will melt this basic TA to the floor.
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Well PRU just put out a clarification ann about production yadi yada no biggie...but something I did notice down the side was the pending (and quite big) ann's to be made in the coming quarter:
Ghana 5.6m oz - Resource Upgrade Q1 2009
Ghana - Feasibility Update Q1 2009
Cash at Bank Jan 09 - $11m
A few questions:
- when do they plan to bring Ghana online?
- how long will the $11m last?
Thanks,
JTLP
Ghana 5.6m oz - Resource Upgrade Q1 2009
Ghana - Feasibility Update Q1 2009
Cash at Bank Jan 09 - $11m
A few questions:
- when do they plan to bring Ghana online?
- how long will the $11m last?
Thanks,
JTLP
No development decision on Ayanfuri due until later this year.
Realistic to postulate that the resource upgrade could push Ayanfuri up to around the 5.5Moz figure, and with the multi-million oz potential sitting within the Tengrela belt, I'm not pushing that hard for an early start-up tbh. The big boys on the block aren't particularly interested in projects less than about 3-4Moz, so for investors hoping for a TO it may help their cause for PRU to continue with their current strategy of proving up more ounces.
If the right suitor comes along at the right time, with the right price, the POG is still healthy (>$US900/oz), and the stars are aligned in PRU's favour then we could defnitely see some corporate action. Although depends on MAC Banks frame of mind too. It may be to PRU's advantage to develop these assets to a suitable level, flog them off at a suitable point and pursue a strategy of turning themselves into a 'project development' company (aka Miners theory). That takes massive risk out of the operation, remember PRU have never embarked down this road before. CGA mining have pursued this strategy reasonably successfully at Masbate in the Phlippines.
Cash at the bank should see them though for another 6 months imo, depending on their rate of drilling. No need to go chasing moose pasture right now, focus should be switching to infilling gaps in the drilling but mainly will being steered towards modelling and adavancing the feasibility studies in Ghana and the IC. Judging by the ease with which the last cap raising was sewn up, the instos look to be heavily backing this stock.
Just thinking out loud....
jman
Care to explain what you're getting at here miner? "low AUD" a "temporary phenomenon"? Says who? Is it really that relevant now?
And you're saying $850/oz is too high? Even though gold is now USD910 odd and everyone worth a cracker in the game says higher gold prices are inevitable.....? C'mon, it is a scoping study - a preliminary economic assessment.
Well I could also counter saying that given they target 2m oz by end 2009 the production rate will most likely double and the opex fall very significantly.
My point is the Sissingue study is a first pass study based on where thing s are at now....
Mark C. has stated on numerous occasions that they target 2m oz by end 2009 at Tengrela with more upside again - no doubt this will result in a production rate which will most likely double imo, operating costs that will fall very significantly (from the numbers put in the scoping study) and a shortened payback period?
So you could really argue this is a potential medium term (2-3 years) 400,000 oz p.a. producer at (say, guesstimate) 350/oz opex and payback in the vicinity of 18 months for each project? Less, if a financier requires hedging for the duration of the expected payback period.
So, what would a 'big boy' pay for that sort of additional to their existing gold portfolio?
Lihir/EQI deal still remains the best yardstick, imo, and PRU dwarfs EQI in terms of in ground gold (yes, I know EQI was a modest producer).
Mark C. has stated on numerous occasions that they target 2m oz by end 2009 at Tengrela with more upside again - no doubt this will result in a production rate which will most likely double imo, operating costs that will fall very significantly (from the numbers put in the scoping study) and a shortened payback period?
So you could really argue this is a potential medium term (2-3 years) 400,000 oz p.a. producer at (say, guesstimate) 350/oz opex and payback in the vicinity of 18 months for each project? Less, if a financier requires hedging for the duration of the expected payback period.
So, what would a 'big boy' pay for that sort of additional to their existing gold portfolio?
Lihir/EQI deal still remains the best yardstick, imo, and PRU dwarfs EQI in terms of in ground gold (yes, I know EQI was a modest producer).
Sean K
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Do you recall what that was valued at per oz of gold?
I suppose I could look it up, but you may have it handy.
Cheers
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Times have changed jman.
I think you'll find the big boys are now looking at anything with 2m oz 'potential', especially if you get a 5m oz + deposit with it!
M&A has almost always been the play this decade for the large-caps. Who knows what will happen with this one? I'm happy to wait and see.
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Dear Flyboy 77
I am not going to explain you any thing as my crystal ball is missing at this point and probably got mixed up with the crystal ball used by Goldman Sachs and other pundits in the market.
It was a matter of my assumption and opinion - take it or reject it. Upto you.
Just put a trigger on this page and revisit in Feb 2010 to correlate what I said
I don't have the figures for that, but in the latest StockAnalysis, Peter Strachan says gold producers are often capitalised at around 100/ oz reserves, with variations depending on mine life, sovereign risk etc etc. Developers trade at a large discount to this as they face funding hurdles.
Cheers V
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has anyone actually looked at the grades stated ?? not worried where it is ? takes a bit of money to process them grades from the tonnage they need to go thru to make it actually viable . anyone wary of the fact that at current spending habits EVEN with mar oppies and latest cap raising they are probably only gunna have enough cash to last till june/july09 tops ?
look im not saying its not a play but geez this bunch AND there directors need a VERY close look b4 jumping into too deeply as an investment stock .
its all there in black and white maybe start with the bizzo address and the ties that leads to when seeing who else renting the joint . a bit of a search on the directors may lead you into some intresting reading too ....
anyways ............ what do i care its a trade stock ONLY in my book , nothing more
look im not saying its not a play but geez this bunch AND there directors need a VERY close look b4 jumping into too deeply as an investment stock .
its all there in black and white maybe start with the bizzo address and the ties that leads to when seeing who else renting the joint
. a bit of a search on the directors may lead you into some intresting reading too ....anyways ............ what do i care its a trade stock ONLY in my book , nothing more
