PRU - Perseus Mining

[Miner]

Hi J Man

Thanks for your posting on PRU

I was off to Ningaloo Reef and excepting watching TV news occassionally was totally out of contact from Internet or phone - the best way to forget the meltdown in market . Where all the bloody top guns failed I better spend some more money on holidays before becoming bankrupt

Any way the PRU shed more value from its recommendation of 79 cents as a buy. Interesting to see how market goes on Monday and probably time to buy some cheapies of PRU to make my average some respect

With market turmoil (3 trillions deficit not a joke with patch up) the gold shares are going to last longer alongwith pharma (there will be more stress, heart attacks from bank ruptcies so more medicines etc) shares

I will see today AM

Regards

 

[jman2007]

Hi J Man

Any way the PRU shed more value from its recommendation of 79 cents as a buy. Interesting to see how market goes on Monday and probably time to buy some cheapies of PRU to make my average some respect

Well I haven't acted yet either Miner,

Despite a bit of a cooling off period for everyone today, I'm in no way prepared to call a bottom on this yet. The POG being absolutely hammered by US$50/oz certainly hasn't helped either. I guess in many ways, all you can do is revert back to the bare-bone basics in this kind of climate.

MC/oz ratio is now a shade under 20 by my calculations (a bit rough I might add), and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is 'rather' cheap for an advanced explorer. Then again, everything looks cheap as hell atm, we need to see what the POG does over the next 4 weeks or so get an idea where the gold sector might go.

jman

 

[jman2007]

Well I haven't acted yet either Miner

Well I eventually topped up at 0.435, managed to reduce my average to 61c or so, reasonably happy with the result. Time will tell whether I've called this one correctly or not, so far we've had failed rallies at 1.15, 0.80 and 0.70. I see one of the Directors bought a small parcel of $10K on market, not a huge number but a token gesture is always good.

jman

 

[Lachlan6]

It would have been better if PRU could have held up around the $0.70 - $0.80mark. Instead it just crashed through and this places the impulsive count to the downside now on the cards. It is possible that the stock has completed either the wave (C) or (3). This will really depend on how it bounces if at all from here. Expect the $0.90 area to provide stern resistance for any move higher if it does eventuate. If the stock can now impulse higher, the correction should be over however if it moves higher in a choppy move, expect the impulsive move to pan out.

 

[jman2007]

It would have been better if PRU could have held up around the $0.70 - $0.80mark. Instead it just crashed through and this places the impulsive count to the downside now on the cards. It is possible that the stock has completed either the wave (C) or (3). This will really depend on how it bounces if at all from here. Expect the $0.90 area to provide stern resistance for any move higher if it does eventuate. If the stock can now impulse higher, the correction should be over however if it moves higher in a choppy move, expect the impulsive move to pan out.

Thanks Lachlan,

Always good to get another perspective on a stock, especially from a T/A point of view. A couple of questions though, what's an impusle count and does the 3rd wave (or wave C) relate to Elliot Wave theory?

Cheers
jman

 

[Miner]

Hi Lachlan6

When you return with technical analysis responding to Jman 2007 query, could you please also look into your chart what could be possible analytical result for PRU to shot from 30 cents to 49 cents in two days. Specially a share has been always downward got 20 and 4 % jump when others sagged.

I noticed the director purchase but when they are reducing the worth of shares by million dollars through lack of capitalisation an investment of the order of $5000 is just peanuts for them to keep the stock floating in ASX

Something very abnormal when you see the volume of trade was for million shares on 20 th Oct when it normally traded only 13000 on a previous day and 133000 on next day. Surely there is something strange happening the market does not know


Let us see in next few days what unfolds with this stock

Regards

 

[Lachlan6]

Hi Miner, Jman 2007.

Below I have posted both the typical corrective and impulsive counts. The big difference is that the impulsive move to the downside is more bearish as any move higher will just be a bounce and not a new trend higher. With the completion of the corrective move (A,B,C) this should bring in a new trend higher. The question is, what is presenting itself with PRU at the moment. Time will tell which one will present itself.

JMan I cannot answer why the stock shot up so much as you say, although suffice to say that the realtionship between the buy and sell side changed dramatically in the short term with some thinking the stock had travelled too far to the downside.

Regards,

Lachlan.

 

[Miner]

Thank you Lachlan 6 for your analysis.

I looked at PRU : a non producer with NCM : an established producer.

With depressed market today and with prevailing gold price NCM has dipped by 14.6% today and 8.63% yesterday.

NEM gone down by 9.95 % today and gone down yesterday by 4.89%

If I compare same commodity and companies a lesser known company like PRU has gone down only by about 4% and yesterday actually rose by 2 %.

I am honestly confused to see any correlation of the price increase or decrease and sniffing some thing with PRU the market just does not know. Funny enough ASIC often becomes blind to have some stricter vigilance.

I am sure in a week's time if the cat will come out of the bag.

 

[jman2007]

Hi Miner, Jman 2007.

Below I have posted both the typical corrective and impulsive counts. The big difference is that the impulsive move to the downside is more bearish as any move higher will just be a bounce and not a new trend higher. With the completion of the corrective move (A,B,C) this should bring in a new trend higher. The question is, what is presenting itself with PRU at the moment. Time will tell which one will present itself. Lachlan.

Thanks Lachlan,

I think I get it... You seem to be saying that the severity of the downward movement will dictate what kind of count is established? i.e. corrective or impulsive. As you say, lets see how PRU reacts over the next few weeks...

cheers
jman

 

[Lachlan6]

Yes in some ways this is true jman. However what will give us the answer will be how the stock moves off the completion of the corrective or impulsive waves down. Will it move up in another corrective move or will it impulse straight higher. If it is the latter, than we can confidently say the stock will start to trend higher again. If it is the former, than this will not bode well and we should therefore expect no new trend higher and for the stock to tip over again.

Remember, we have not seen the completion of either of these yet and it still may be some time before we do.

Regards;

Lachlan.

 

[vegemite]

Price rise of a few days ago may have been due to a postive report released by BGF equities (now available on the Perseus website). When the report was emailed out, it was accompanied by the comment below:

"Perseus (gold) - I feel very strongly about this one. The market has been harassed by a line of about 850,000 Opes Prime shares that have overhanging the market for many weeks. That was finally moved on Friday, butBGF Capital. Two institutions took the line. They obviously have a good eye for value. It is my bet that a takeover will be on the cards, sooner rather than later, though it would need to be pitched at much higher levels to succeed"

 

[jman2007]

Price rise of a few days ago may have been due to a postive report released by BGF equities (now available on the Perseus website).

Thanks for drawing our attention to the report vegemite,

Available here:

http://perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20October08.pdf

In many ways it eloquently sums up what most of us have been saying off and on for a year now, that Perseus represents outstanding value, especially given its current sp. I'm still not completely convinced in the takeover talk, but it is true that at current prices now would be the time for any predatory action. Let's see what happens.

Grigor appears particularly bullish re the Tengrela project, and is predicitng that 1Moz could be on the cards by Xmass. My prediction of 500Koz is a little more circumspect, but obviously I'd be delighted to see this get doubled!

jman

 

[Miner]

Thanks for drawing our attention to the report vegemite,

Available here:

http://perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20October08.pdf

In many ways it eloquently sums up what most of us have been saying off and on for a year now, that Perseus represents outstanding value, especially given its current sp. I'm still not completely convinced in the takeover talk, but it is true that at current prices now would be the time for any predatory action. Let's see what happens.

Grigor appears particularly bullish re the Tengrela project, and is predicitng that 1Moz could be on the cards by Xmass. My prediction of 500Koz is a little more circumspect, but obviously I'd be delighted to see this get doubled!

jman

I do agree what you said Jman

However if we recollect BG raised fund at $1.50 and published an excellent report on PRU.

The share price never recovered.

It has written another good report and could this be for raising fund again ?

Cheers

 

[Miner]

Thanks for drawing our attention to the report vegemite,

Available here:

http://perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20October08.pdf

In many ways it eloquently sums up what most of us have been saying off and on for a year now, that Perseus represents outstanding value, especially given its current sp. I'm still not completely convinced in the takeover talk, but it is true that at current prices now would be the time for any predatory action. Let's see what happens.

Grigor appears particularly bullish re the Tengrela project, and is predicitng that 1Moz could be on the cards by Xmass. My prediction of 500Koz is a little more circumspect, but obviously I'd be delighted to see this get doubled!

jman

I do agree what you said Jman

PRU last raised capital at $1.40 a share in May/June 2008, bringing in $15m (BGF raised $10m of this). Given the spending rate has dropped the cash balance below $10m, BGF rightly said that they expect the Company will be seeking additional funding within a few months.

The share price never recovered.

Its good report in may / june which yet to be seen right. So this nice report again before a fund raising

It is probably no secret that PRU is desperate to some one to buy the company bailing it out and search is going on. BGF has strong conflict of interest to write an unbiased report as they hold the shares and will get substantial commission from fresh capital raising. So they will always write a rosy picture



Cheers

 

[jman2007]

I do agree what you said Jman

PRU last raised capital at $1.40 a share in May/June 2008, bringing in $15m (BGF raised $10m of this). Given the spending rate has dropped the cash balance below $10m, BGF rightly said that they expect the Company will be seeking additional funding within a few months.

It is probably no secret that PRU is desperate to some one to buy the company bailing it out and search is going on. BGF has strong conflict of interest to write an unbiased report as they hold the shares and will get substantial commission from fresh capital raising. So they will always write a rosy picture

Good points Miner,

Grigor also has a personal stake in PRU, although he doesn't appear in the top 20. Still $9M AUD in the bank by my reckoning, they've probably done most of the drilling they need to at Ayanfuri for the time being, the next step will be updating the Resource and crunching the numbers.

Interesting interview on the PRU webiste with Mark Calderwood, posted on Oct the 23rd:

http://www.perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/Microsoft%20Word%20-%2020081023%20Business%20Spectator_Interview_M%20Calderwood.pdf

There should be a reosurce upgrade next month and another one in January 2009. Hopefully by Feb next year, Calderwood is predicting 6Moz on the books. Tbh Miner I don't think PRU will be too concerned about going it alone for another twelve months, I also don't predict that another equity raising would present any problems for us, despite what some commentators would say.

jman

 

[Miner]

Good points Miner,

Grigor also has a personal stake in PRU, although he doesn't appear in the top 20. Still $9M AUD in the bank by my reckoning, they've probably done most of the drilling they need to at Ayanfuri for the time being, the next step will be updating the Resource and crunching the numbers.

Interesting interview on the PRU webiste with Mark Calderwood, posted on Oct the 23rd:

[vv

jman

Thanks JMan for publishing the note from Business Spectator.

Interesting comment from CEO to say that he is relieved to be in GOld. Ironically what else he could say as he had no choice either.

I am now more or less confirmed that they have already got some suitors but waiting to get good price once hopefully the market recovers. Unfortunately for them and us the market recovery is far off.

Let us wait for PRU to get a suitor for take over

Regards

Miner (Do hold small parcel)

 

[jman2007]

PRU last raised capital at $1.40 a share in May/June 2008, bringing in $15m (BGF raised $10m of this). Given the spending rate has dropped the cash balance below $10m, BGF rightly said that they expect the Company will be seeking additional funding within a few months.Cheers

Looks like you might have been on the money Miner,

A very weird announcement by the company recently indicating they had terminated discussions with a Sydney-based stockbroking firm. No elaboration and no explanation given, which has left most of us in the dark!

I thought we have have found a bottom at 35-37c, but looking pretty tenuous after todays effort

jman

 

[nunthewiser]

Looks like you might have been on the money Miner,

A very weird announcement by the company recently indicating they had terminated discussions with a Sydney-based stockbroking firm. No elaboration and no explanation given, which has left most of us in the dark!

I thought we have have found a bottom at 35-37c, but looking pretty tenuous after todays effort

jman

so since may its chewed up 5 mill ....... how long can this co stay afloat at this current rate ? not to mention HOW the heck does it ever hope to even think about actually affording to mine the product ?

 

[jman2007]

so since may its chewed up 5 mill ....... how long can this co stay afloat at this current rate ? not to mention HOW the heck does it ever hope to even think about actually affording to mine the product ?

Drilling holes usually the best way to find ounces my friend. 5-6 rigs hammering away, plus overheads = one million per month.

Also plenty of info available in recent company releases indicating cost reductions of 70% per month in relation to the scaling back of exploration drilling. They have 150,000m of drilling data to validate and incorporate into the resource models. Enough data available from Tengrela for maiden resource estimate, and Ayanfuri phase-1 mostly complete.

PRU face the same funding challenges that every other budding advanced explorer/emerging producer is facing right now, so of course it's not going to be easy. Funding options should still be available for the top tier of quality projects however.

jman

 

[Miner]

Some facts of exposure of news which market needs to interprete for PRU.
Both CIG and PRU have common directors dealing in unrelated businesses and now CIG directors have dumped the PRU shares in a period of two weeks. So what else is coming for PRU as a bad news

Should ASIC not investigate the actions of CIG directors having inside knowledge and not disclosing to market ?


ASX Announcements
Date Time # pages Mkt Sensitive Description

20/11/2008 11:14AM 3 Change in substantial holding for PRU
03/11/2008 6:04PM 3 Change in substantial holding for PRU

DIRECTORS OF PRU
Mr Colin John Carson Executive Director --
Mr Reginald Norman Gillard Non-Executive Chairman --
Mr Neil Fearis Non-Executive Director --
Mr Mark Calderwood Managing Director --
Mr Rhett Brans Executive Director

DIRECTORS OF CIG
Mr Colin John Carson Executive Director --
Mr Reginald Norman Gillard Non-Executive Chairman --
Mr Jurg Walker Non-Executive Director 20/05/2002
Mr Michael J Sandy Non-Executive Director 27/09/2005
Mr Graeme Parsons Executive Director, Chief Executive Officer 18/10/2006

PRU
20 Nov 2008 0.215 -10.42% 0.215 0.250 0.230 0.230 0.200 416,308
19 Nov 2008 0.240 -14.29% 0.280 0.240 186,545
18 Nov 2008 0.280 -3.45% 0.290 0.270 82,499
17 Nov 2008 0.290 -7.94% 0.305 0.290 50,001
14 Nov 2008 0.315 -3.08% 0.315 0.310 6,000
13 Nov 2008 0.325 -4.41% 0.335 0.300 59,500