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Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market

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pavilion103

Joined
14 December 2010
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I've been trading the market long during the run up.

Now the market has topped and it looks like there may be some downside potential.

One way that I've been looking to profit from the global market conditions is to short the FTSE.

How about the Aussie market? The SPI Futures is a bit rich for me at $25 per 1 point movement.

What about shorting the banks?

Could it be worth shorting them on this current leg up? I'd be looking in conjunction with the broader market.


Having watched the XAO closely and seen a topping pattern in real time it was frustrating not being able to trade the SPI due to my risk profile. That got me thinking about maybe shorting the banks instead. It would have been an excellent move.

Just interested to see if others share similar sentiments...
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Can you just reverse your scans and run them on the ASX 100 universe, then if you get a signal and they're available for shorting your in...?

Why is it different than going long? You need to be a bit careful in a takeover sort of environment, but patterns for shorts once the trends starts are no different than longs are they?

CanOz
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.



The thing is CanOz, I haven't spent a whole lot of time working on shorts. So this has been getting more of my attention in recent weeks. I'm unsure how different these setups are as opposed to the long side.

Yes I do have a reverse scan which I have run in recent weeks. I've also been looking at some of Radge's trades and analysing his charts.

I've been taking a few shorts (have about 3 open at the moment).

Maybe I'll post some charts of setups for the banks as I see them unfold. Interesting to discuss it with people.
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

CanOz said:
but patterns for shorts once the trends starts are no different than longs are they?

CanOz
Click to expand...

I would say they are pretty different!
 
I find looking for breaks of horizontal support in stocks that are already trending down works well.
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

CanOz said:
Can you just reverse your scans and run them on the ASX 100 universe, then if you get a signal and they're available for shorting your in...?

CanOz
Click to expand...

Weekly short scan (reversal of long entry scan) of the whole ASX based on today's data = DTL, FRI, SWM
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

sinner said:
I would say they are pretty different!
Click to expand...


How so? Flags, pennants, descending triangles, ledges....

Enlighten me Sinner.

CanOz
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

CanOz said:
How so? Flags, pennants, descending triangles, ledges....

Enlighten me Sinner.

CanOz
Click to expand...

Market returns are simply not symmetrical, in any market, not even FX where the strongest structural argument for symmetrical returns could be made. If you've assumed that they are, it would be worthwhile to test and validate your assumption.

Pick any market. On a rolling basis, how much smaller is the average down day versus average up day? etc.
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.


We are discussing pattern trading, or I was...how are the patterns any different sinner?

CanOz
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

CanOz said:
We are discussing pattern trading, or I was...how are the patterns any different sinner?

CanOz
Click to expand...

Patterns are just an arbitrary collection of daily returns CanOz. I am not sure how else to explain it.
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

sinner said:
Patterns are just an arbitrary collection of daily returns CanOz. I am not sure how else to explain it.
Click to expand...

I'm just a visual trader sinner, I still don't understand what the difference is between a pennant in an uptrend and a pennant in a downtrend? I will agree that the targets will get hit quicker, as bear markets fall quicker than bull markets rise...

But I still don't understand what your getting at.

CanOz
 
Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

sinner said:
Patterns are just an arbitrary collection of daily returns CanOz. I am not sure how else to explain it.
Click to expand...

patterns arent arbitrary, the drawing of them is.....buying patterns selling patterns arent arbitrary, trying to isolate them correctly is usually arbitrary......tis the drawer not the pattern that is arbitrary.....yay!
 
I'm frustrated by the lack of short-able stocks with IB.

I wonder if, in a market like this, it's worth me cranking open my CMC account again if it gives me access to more shorts. I would only do this in a market like this one because the commission of $9.90 or whatever it is now is a big difference to $6.00. Particularly for the sized trades that I take.

I don't want to miss out on opportunities. Might as well investigate because the account is already set up.

Still putting my main focus on shorting the FTSE though.
 
I'm thinking NAB

Short sell at - 29.32
Initial stop - 30.05

I'm very inexperienced with these type of shorts, so just my thoughts...

Come to think of it, am I even allowed to post in this manner? I don't want to be seen as giving advice but I want to discuss potential trade setups.
Someone please let me know the protocol.

Thanks
 
What is the rational behind this NAB trade?
 

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