Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market

[pavilion103]

I've been trading the market long during the run up.

Now the market has topped and it looks like there may be some downside potential.

One way that I've been looking to profit from the global market conditions is to short the FTSE.

How about the Aussie market? The SPI Futures is a bit rich for me at $25 per 1 point movement.

What about shorting the banks?

Could it be worth shorting them on this current leg up? I'd be looking in conjunction with the broader market.


Having watched the XAO closely and seen a topping pattern in real time it was frustrating not being able to trade the SPI due to my risk profile. That got me thinking about maybe shorting the banks instead. It would have been an excellent move.

Just interested to see if others share similar sentiments...

 

[CanOz]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Can you just reverse your scans and run them on the ASX 100 universe, then if you get a signal and they're available for shorting your in...?

Why is it different than going long? You need to be a bit careful in a takeover sort of environment, but patterns for shorts once the trends starts are no different than longs are they?

CanOz

 

[pavilion103]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Can you just reverse your scans and run them on the ASX 100 universe, then if you get a signal and they're available for shorting your in...?

Why is it different than going long? You need to be a bit careful in a takeover sort of environment, but patterns for shorts once the trends starts are no different than longs are they?

CanOz

The thing is CanOz, I haven't spent a whole lot of time working on shorts. So this has been getting more of my attention in recent weeks. I'm unsure how different these setups are as opposed to the long side.

Yes I do have a reverse scan which I have run in recent weeks. I've also been looking at some of Radge's trades and analysing his charts.

I've been taking a few shorts (have about 3 open at the moment).

Maybe I'll post some charts of setups for the banks as I see them unfold. Interesting to discuss it with people.

 

[sinner]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

but patterns for shorts once the trends starts are no different than longs are they?

CanOz

I would say they are pretty different!

 

[banco]

I find looking for breaks of horizontal support in stocks that are already trending down works well.

 

[chops_a_must]

Sell some calls.

Buy some puts.

 

[Boggo]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Can you just reverse your scans and run them on the ASX 100 universe, then if you get a signal and they're available for shorting your in...?

CanOz

Weekly short scan (reversal of long entry scan) of the whole ASX based on today's data = DTL, FRI, SWM

 

[sinner]

The SPI Futures is a bit rich for me at $25 per 1 point movement.

pav, there is a listed ETF called ASX:BEAR. They invest solely in short SPI futures.

 

[john12]

short the asx 200 as a cfd

 

[CanOz]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

I would say they are pretty different!

How so? Flags, pennants, descending triangles, ledges....

Enlighten me Sinner.

CanOz

 

[sinner]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

How so? Flags, pennants, descending triangles, ledges....

Enlighten me Sinner.

CanOz

Market returns are simply not symmetrical, in any market, not even FX where the strongest structural argument for symmetrical returns could be made. If you've assumed that they are, it would be worthwhile to test and validate your assumption.

Pick any market. On a rolling basis, how much smaller is the average down day versus average up day? etc.

 

[CanOz]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Market returns are simply not symmetrical, in any market, not even FX where the strongest structural argument for symmetrical returns could be made. If you've assumed that they are, it would be worthwhile to test and validate your assumption.

Pick any market. On a rolling basis, how much smaller is the average down day versus average up day? etc.

We are discussing pattern trading, or I was...how are the patterns any different sinner?

CanOz

 

[sinner]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

We are discussing pattern trading, or I was...how are the patterns any different sinner?

CanOz

Patterns are just an arbitrary collection of daily returns CanOz. I am not sure how else to explain it.

 

[CanOz]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Patterns are just an arbitrary collection of daily returns CanOz. I am not sure how else to explain it.

I'm just a visual trader sinner, I still don't understand what the difference is between a pennant in an uptrend and a pennant in a downtrend? I will agree that the targets will get hit quicker, as bear markets fall quicker than bull markets rise...

But I still don't understand what your getting at.

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market.

Patterns are just an arbitrary collection of daily returns CanOz. I am not sure how else to explain it.

patterns arent arbitrary, the drawing of them is.....buying patterns selling patterns arent arbitrary, trying to isolate them correctly is usually arbitrary......tis the drawer not the pattern that is arbitrary.....yay!

 

[pavilion103]

I'm frustrated by the lack of short-able stocks with IB.

I wonder if, in a market like this, it's worth me cranking open my CMC account again if it gives me access to more shorts. I would only do this in a market like this one because the commission of $9.90 or whatever it is now is a big difference to $6.00. Particularly for the sized trades that I take.

I don't want to miss out on opportunities. Might as well investigate because the account is already set up.

Still putting my main focus on shorting the FTSE though.

 

[tech/a]

short the asx 200 as a cfd

How's that working out for you?

 

[pavilion103]

I'm thinking NAB

Short sell at - 29.32
Initial stop - 30.05

I'm very inexperienced with these type of shorts, so just my thoughts...

Come to think of it, am I even allowed to post in this manner? I don't want to be seen as giving advice but I want to discuss potential trade setups.
Someone please let me know the protocol.

Thanks

 

[mr. jeff]

How's that working out for you?

VERY well so far
pushing down nicely.

Banks will be next to watch for removal of stength. QBE was my favourite short.

 

[CanOz]

What is the rational behind this NAB trade?