Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market

[pavilion103]

What is the rational behind this NAB trade?

Pushing up to the gap and previous resistance with volume decreasing.

XAO a little push up which could result in another down leg soon.

Probably a low risk entry

 

[CanOz]

FWIW, this is what I was taught to look for....Bearish continuation patterns...

I wouldn't post entries and exits prior to the trade Pav, after is fine.

CanOz

 

[pavilion103]

FWIW, this is what I was taught to look for....Bearish continuation patterns...

I wouldn't post entries and exits prior to the trade Pav, after is fine.

CanOz

Ok no worries.

Yes that sort of consolidation is what I'm looking for also. Whether it's a channel or a pattern like the triangle you posted.

I didn't communicate that in the last post sorry. I won't just take a stab in the dark and short without some sort of decent setup.

 

[tech/a]

VERY well so far
pushing down nicely.

Banks will be next to watch for removal of stength. QBE was my favourite short.

Short myself FTSE this morning.

Nice pattern Can.

 

[pavilion103]

NAB trade would be activated now

 

[CanOz]

I get allot of pattern fails on flags that are channels...but that's what i like about the patterns, they need to prove themselves before you enter.

Will post a few in another thread for US Stocks.

CanOz

 

[Boggo]

A quick scan brought this up. Quite a few others but in a much lower price range so may not be available everywhere as a short.

 

[tech/a]

A quick scan brought this up. Quite a few others but in a much lower price range so may not be available everywhere as a short.

Can I have volume with that?

Seriously on the chart please

 

[Boggo]

Can I have volume with that?

Seriously on the chart please

Like this ?
(last vol bar won't be complete as its a weekly chart)

 

[mr. jeff]

VERY well so far
pushing down nicely.

Banks will be next to watch for removal of stength. QBE was my favourite short.

I note QBE up 5% on a bad down day.
Could be 1.50 in each share.
Will put a chart up tomorrow if it looks promising.

 

[skc]

I note QBE up 5% on a bad down day.
Could be 1.50 in each share.
Will put a chart up tomorrow if it looks promising.

You are shorting QBE in this market? Do you know why it's up 5% today?

Like this ?
(last vol bar won't be complete as its a weekly chart)

Tomorrow is FTSE rebalance and SWM is being downweighed. So there could be a funny match well down from today's close.

 

[So_Cynical]

You are shorting QBE in this market? Do you know why it's up 5% today?

USD? same reason CPU was up to....gota love timely diversification.

 

[mr. jeff]

I note QBE up 5% on a bad down day.
Could be 1.50 in each share.
Will put a chart up tomorrow if it looks promising.

There's your 1.50 per share.
AMP won't be helping sentiment now...

 

[pavilion103]

BRU is my only short. Left most funds for FTSE futures.

Didn't want to tie up too much in the banks.

 

[pixel]

There's your 1.50 per share.
AMP won't be helping sentiment now...

If QBE breaks $14.34, a double top drop threatens.

 

[kid hustlr]

just as an FYI QBE has a huge exposure to US bond yields. Its share price and US bond yield are highly correlated and have been for sometime. Us bond yields up = QBE up in the main

 

[pavilion103]

Previous NAB trade would have been out at BE.

Another low risk setup short as it approaches resistance again on low volume?

 

[fiftyeight]

So from what I have read so far, the big winners can really skew the expectancy of a system.

How does this translate to shorting? I have looked at the maths a few different ways and cant decide which is correct.

Are you limited as the best you can do is the price falling to zero, ie shorting $1000 (borrowing $1000 worth of shares and selling at $1000 and then buying them back at say $0.001) profit $1000. Therefore you cant have the big 200% 300% winners to skew the system?

Or is more about increasing the R:R of the system (maybe you only risked $10 to make that $1000)?

So, have I missed something completely regarding how shorting works, expectancy or something else? Are systems designed for shorting very different from long? Or is making a consistent profit from shorting just much harder?

Apologies if this is the wrong thread

Fiftyeight

 

[robz7777]

So, have I missed something completely regarding how shorting works, expectancy or something else? Are systems designed for shorting very different from long? Or is making a consistent profit from shorting just much harder?
Fiftyeight

One point of difficulty is that shorting can be / has been banned during periods of market trouble.. How then can you accurately test when you wouldn't have been able to make trades, which possibly may have been what generated the bulk of system returns..

 

[CanOz]

One point of difficulty is that shorting can be / has been banned during periods of market trouble.. How then can you accurately test when you wouldn't have been able to make trades, which possibly may have been what generated the bulk of system returns..

Shorting is not banned very often in the US, but yes quite frequently in other markets as political pressure usually overcomes common sense....

Most equity system traders i know that trade the ASX trade long only, likely for this reason.

CanOz