Problem with calculating price to earning ratio?

[Ves]

From where Luutze first appeared on the scene at post 11 showing with his first line that he hadn't understood the prior P/E conversation - the rest of this thread should be moved/renamed! To what though I'm not sure???

Just move them all to Asaleo's stock thread. AHY.

 

[luutzu]

I forgot to mention there's another $25m of free cash flow in the first half of 2016 that you need to financially engineer to make this look like a company this is secretly going bust.

In fact, by the end of 2016, there will probably be another $40m-50m of free cash flow on top of that.

There's only so much GST or additional tax they can pay before the ATO starts sending their cheques back.

Yup. It's a great company that's why the company is buying it all back; and the mgt just spent about $100k from their $32m pay day to buy all they can at the same price they sold it for.

 

[luutzu]

ATO is in on it.

So the $693.717m from customers that's inclusive of GST, that does not include GST they have to pay?

The $554.637m payment to suppliers (and employees) that includes GST, there is or there is not GST they can claim from?

Dam, I must have paid GST all wrong all these years.


So no, the ATO aren't in on it, they just want that GST.

 

[luutzu]

From where Luutze first appeared on the scene at post 11 showing with his first line that he hadn't understood the prior P/E conversation - the rest of this thread should be moved out of the beginners lounge/renamed! To what though I'm not sure???

Should frame it man. To show how smart you guys are.

Yea, I'd feel real smart thinking nothing's wrong when a bunch of financial engineers want to sell me $1b worth of tissue and toilet paper. Something they lent $125m, load up on debt, pay themselves all handsomely, flog it off to me and use all my cash to pay all the debt and give them their bonuses and that $40m of interests on that $125m loan.

Let's get that spreadsheet out and start doing the analysis with first, a 2 stage DCF model; then a 5 stage I'm paid by the hour to pretend I am smart...

 

[craft]

Let's get that spreadsheet out and start doing the analysis with first, a 2 stage DCF model; then a 5 stage I'm paid by the hour to pretend I am smart...

Luutzu

You misinterpreted and misrepresented that discussion and the same here.

Enough - you are an arrogant ********.

 

[luutzu]

So Luutze, small steps let look at the first incorrect statement you make – Oh look there it is on the first line.

The 96M shares are made up of consideration to SCA of 71.7M for the SCAHH subsidiary and 24.3M for the non-cash component of the SCAHHPL subsidiary. Both originally paid as promissory notes but settled for equity by the joint Venture PEPSCA

The 114M shares are made up of 20.4M brand assets for SCAHH and 93.6M of brand assets for SCAHHPL.

Total shares issued to SCA 210M

PEP then acquired 50% of the existing ordinary shares of the joint venture company from SCA (makes sense for a joint venture doesn’t it?) for $105M plus there was a completion settlement agreement where PEP would have paid SCA another 7.3M on the 105M shares.

So both parties hold an initially 105M shares each.

There was a latter split where the equity was split according to existing holdings and you can see they both had equal numbers of shares at the IPO.

It’s all spelt out multiple times in all the reports.

Nobody here is saying AHY is necessarily a great company or that the business during its transformation to an IPO ready business under private equity wasn’t highly leveraged. Nobody is saying that capital extracted from the business prior to the IPO wasn’t maximised and nobody is saying that the fees paid to advisors were justifiable.

We are just trying to point out the mistakes in your facts that undermine your arguement.

If you really want to do a good analyse – first get the facts straight. Look at things from the perspective of Funds employed. Forget just concentrating on what the joint partners made out of the process.

Then ask the questions:

IF PEP as the private equity partner made a windfall gain was it because SCA sold the 50% to them cheaply to get a partner on board who could shape the business for an IPO?
Does the underlying business improvements during the transformation period justify the profits achieved?
Or did the public pay too much for the IPO.

If you want to label it the next DSH – make the case based on post IPO financial structure and asset economic value - that's what has the potential to kill it - not just that it shared a similar heritage.

I have already explained PEPSCA's version of the story; have also explained my version of their bs.

And yes, I have admitted that simply looking at Asaleo's birth history is just conjecture, and maybe envy, right?. That one need to go thru and dissect the current state and use the language of accounting etc. etc. to make the case. Can't blame PEP for finding a diamond in the turd, polished the turd to show a genuine 1billion caret pink diamond and so got handsomely rewarded.

Yea, I know that. Why do you think I actually start analysing Asaelo's IPO? Maybe because I thought the market mispriced it for those prejudices.

And I have also said that after I analysed the two years financials prior to IPO; read the latest presentation and scan thru the latest two years financials.... guess what, it's still crap.

You guys said, no it's not, prove it. So with nothing better to do, I spent 5 minutes on the latest cash flow statement... and guess what, it's still crap.


Anyway, it just got a bit cheaper again today. Get ready to jump in if you think it's a bargain like the board of Asaleo.

 

[luutzu]

Luutzu

You misinterpreted and misrepresented that discussion and the same here.

Enough - you are an arrogant ********.

Unique and special people tend to be arrogant. Especially when they're right too.

What, you going to stop talking to me now? 'cause I don't know if I can take it a second time man.

 

[skc]

From where Luutze first appeared on the scene at post 11 showing with his first line that he hadn't understood the prior P/E conversation - the rest of this thread should be moved out of the beginners lounge/renamed! To what though I'm not sure???

I have a few suggestions:

- Problem with trying to have a discussion on the internet around facts?

- Read first: before engaging debate with Luutze

- A guide to winning every internet discussion: never admit being wrong

- Understanding company financial statements: the toilet paper methodology

- The importance of stop loss when posting on stock forums

 

[Klogg]

I have a few suggestions:

- Problem with trying to have a discussion on the internet around facts?

- Read first: before engaging debate with Luutze

- A guide to winning every internet discussion: never admit being wrong

- Understanding company financial statements: the toilet paper methodology

- The importance of stop loss when posting on stock forums

Haha, love it. This ranks as the 2nd best post, behind premature accumulation.

 

[luutzu]

I have a few suggestions:

- Problem with trying to have a discussion on the internet around facts?

- Read first: before engaging debate with Luutze

- A guide to winning every internet discussion: never admit being wrong

- Understanding company financial statements: the toilet paper methodology

- The importance of stop loss when posting on stock forums

Good advice.

But wait, wouldn't I need to be wrong first to then admit I'm wrong? Otherwise it'd be false.


Yes, the way to understand financial statements is to always take what's written and prepared for you at the words of god. Even if it's by the same crew who managed to spent literally zero dollar and get to flog it off for over $500m for themselves in two years. I mean, it's not like financial engineers can use leeways to define and imagine earnings and costs and stuff and still be within the law.

btw, they have only "$282m" in debt even though they've drawn down $320m from a $350m debt facility. That's not technically a lie, but it's not like the cash on hand they've used to reduced a $320m debt to the banks are just sitting there not to be use for anything. GST repayment of $13m or something? New toilet paper and handwash for the offices?

What is a lie though, is why the $20m (12.5%?) increase in inventory they claimed as due to:

"Increase in inventory primarily due to increase in finished goods arising from stock build associated with nappy machine relocation and upgrade and Feminine Care machine upgrade, undersells in June and unfavourable FX on inventory" - p.13. HY16 prez.

What do they mean? They can't sell the finished goods. Noooo... They ramp up production to an extra $17m of new finished goods before shutting down the machines for a new efficient one.

Yah, ramped up all that with less human resources, machines old enough you need to repair and replace.

--------

From a strategic pov... say I'm a Coles or WOW executive and are going to war because Aldi and MTS are gaining on my market share. Then these Asaleo toilet paper guys are starting to supply to that German threat. What would I do?

A. I wish Asaleo luck and hope they could give Aldi an even better deal than what I'm getting. OR
B. I push Asaleo so hard on its prices that it would not be able to pass onto Aldi anything that they'd be able to compete with me.


If I'm Aldi, would I buy the same stuff at the same level as WOW or WES? Are my customers cost conscious or brand conscious when it comes to their toilet and tissue?


It's a business that's between a rock and a hard place, run my people who doesn't care much about shareholder interests and who, if honest, do not know how best to utilise cash and borrowings towards the business. Spending borrowed money on stock buyback when your major clients are at war, economic headwinds you are claiming... good luck with that.

 

[galumay]

I have a few suggestions:

- The importance of stop loss when posting on stock forums

I love that one, dont use them when investing, but when posting on the internet, well stop losses would have saved me several hours of my life I will never get back!!

 

[luutzu]

I love that one, dont use them when investing, but when posting on the internet, well stop losses would have saved me several hours of my life I will never get back!!

kekeke

I thought stop-loss would be telling where PEP can shove their $1b request the moment you open the prospectus and found that they've only loaned $125m at 15% coupon for two years, load the heck out of Asaleo with debt, and want you to take it off them... after careful due diligence of course.

I guess you can't really make $500m+ in two years without meeting a few highly paid maroon.

 

[McLovin]

I guess you can't really make $500m+ in two years without meeting a few highly paid maroon.

Queenslander!