Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Present Value of Future Cash Flows

This post is a response to a question in another thread about switching from trading to investing. (hopefully Ill be forgiven here for being off topic.)

It’s just 1 persons experience – everybody else’s experience past or future may be different.


Minor ‘physical’ reasons (shares)

Market impact decreases the return (chasing volume to get things done in a reasonable time often pushes the market away from the trigger/reason to act)

Physical transaction time and associated bookkeeping increases (splitting orders to try and hide a bit)

I traded Aust shares and I'm sure some of the physical limitations to size could be addressed with other instruments (US shares, Interest rates, futures, FX)

But the more major issues for me were psychological. In addition to the ‘physical’ impact of size above – there were additional diminishing return because of psychological issue when I attempted to scale up.

Possible basis for those psychological issues:

Lack of belief in myself as a trader; Lack of belief in trading as a ‘sustainable’ pathway for increasing funds; Fear that I may have just been on the lucky side of the return distribution to date; Concern that I could keep adapting to the next market paradigm shift; Concern about correctly differentiating between a normal drawdown and a system failure etc etc.

All in all it was hard work (for me) staying good enough to make money in a game that is not loaded in my favour. Accumulating money has a diminishing marginal incentive to work hard.

Because of the above – and with the reality that what I could earn going forward was worth less to me then what I had accumulated and could lose meant I didn’t have the psychological ability to scale up without finding something more certain for myself.


My trading returns when working only at a comfortable scale didn’t justify ignoring the rest of my capital.

My search for methods that would allow me to scale brought me to business analysis investing. (ironically it has more volatility then short term trading) But I felt a firmer foundation for taking risk. Maybe more than anything I landed there because of my personal traits. The real world difficulties of size and work load are reduced but more importantly the psychological fit is much better.

The existence of prop shops during my time of transition may have made a difference. They seem like a very good way to leverage trading skills and alleviate some of the psychological pressures. (Though I’m just guessing because I have no experience of them) Trading your own capital in the range of ‘My family could retire on this if I don’t do anything risky’ is difficult – building your capital past this point without risk would be gold.
 
This post is a response to a question in another thread about switching from trading to investing. (hopefully Ill be forgiven here for being off topic.)

It’s just 1 persons experience – everybody else’s experience past or future may be different.

Thanks Craft.

Some of the stuff about scaling up etc I am starting to feel a little bit, albeit as you said, I am in the fortunate position of trading someone else's capital.

Plenty of food for thought here although I am probably not quite at the level where I can concurr with everything you've said. Hope to get there someday though...
 
From Credit Suisse 2015 Yearbook.

Real return embedded in the US market is currently at 10th centile expensive at 4.2%. They find that valuation metrics are next to useless at monthly intervals. However, at longer intervals, some sort of mean reversion appears to be present. To me: valuation is useless for near term return prediction but remains a valid consideration over the longer term....but you might need to wait an awfully long time.

2015-02-17 10_59_59-Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015 (SECURED) - Adobe Reader.png
 
Updating some charts with month end data.

GDP Regressed Earnings telling a very interesting story in this one.

earnings.jpg
 
Updating some charts with month end data.

GDP Regressed Earnings telling a very interesting story in this one.

Craft, do you have any explanation you could link to? I am not familiar with "GDP Regressed Earnings".
 
Updating some charts with month end data.

GDP Regressed Earnings telling a very interesting story in this one.

View attachment 62209

Q1: Are you regressing on nominal GDP?
Q2: Do you happen to have industrials-only (ie. ex Resources, A-REIT and Financials) GDP regressed earnings on tap? V.interested if so.

Fascinating. Thanks for posting it up.
 
Also, Craft I have been reading thru this thread from the beginning because it has a lot to teach me in my strategy and also the mechanics of DCF calculations using FCFE. I stumbled across your post on page 6 about rebalancing, https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=23385&page=5&p=708630&viewfull=1#post708630

It is a question I have been struggling with over the whole easter break! I looked at both my portfolios, personal and SMSF and did a decision tree exercise on whether there were any companies I should sell or sell down my holdings in. The initial conclusion was to sell down all positions to rebalance back towards original stake size, where they had become more than 10% out of balance.

I revisted the decision to rebalance and basically ran a detailed "why not to rebalance" case, costing out a range of outcomes. (drop in price, price stable, increase in price.) - and came to a contrary conclusion that it didnt really make sense, it was "cutting the flowers" as Peter Lynch calls it, and the benefits if the price did drop were illusory in a long term hold strategy anyway.

The only other benefit iI was left with was that it did free up cash for other investments, but thats not certainly a benefit - if the other investments are not at least as good as the one i sell out of!

So as I sit now I am inclined to allow the positions to run, there are obvious benefits in markets being shut for 4 days!

Was the post I have linked to your final view on rebalancing or has it changed again?
 
Craft, do you have any explanation you could link to? I am not familiar with "GDP Regressed Earnings".

Hi Galumay

It’s a statistical process to determine what normalised earnings would be given a certain level of GDP.

What it is saying is that if GDP continues on has it has recently we should expect lower then trend earnings – of course there is a flip side – ie it could also be saying we should expect GDP to increase back to longer term trends.

The GDP deflator is what has changed (yep DS its Nominal). – It’s basically flat lined for the last few years.

Capture.JPG

So the chart indicates to me either we have a paradigm shift in broad inflation with ramifications for future earnings levels or (flipside) increased inflation lays shortly down the track. Both have differing implications for valuation.

Ps
Sorry DS I can’t supply industrials specific earning figures. But I too would like them.
 
Also, Craft I have been reading thru this thread from the beginning because it has a lot to teach me in my strategy and also the mechanics of DCF calculations using FCFE. I stumbled across your post on page 6 about rebalancing, https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=23385&page=5&p=708630&viewfull=1#post708630

It is a question I have been struggling with over the whole easter break! I looked at both my portfolios, personal and SMSF and did a decision tree exercise on whether there were any companies I should sell or sell down my holdings in. The initial conclusion was to sell down all positions to rebalance back towards original stake size, where they had become more than 10% out of balance.

I revisted the decision to rebalance and basically ran a detailed "why not to rebalance" case, costing out a range of outcomes. (drop in price, price stable, increase in price.) - and came to a contrary conclusion that it didnt really make sense, it was "cutting the flowers" as Peter Lynch calls it, and the benefits if the price did drop were illusory in a long term hold strategy anyway.

The only other benefit iI was left with was that it did free up cash for other investments, but thats not certainly a benefit - if the other investments are not at least as good as the one i sell out of!

So as I sit now I am inclined to allow the positions to run, there are obvious benefits in markets being shut for 4 days!

Was the post I have linked to your final view on rebalancing or has it changed again?

SMSF has a maximum of 25% portfolio concentration limit at market prices. Funds outside super have a 33% cap. These rules deal with my psychological and information limitations. They are not performance enhancing rules, at least not in theory and I wouldn’t argue with anybody who has a different view. If the rules ultimately come at a cost in my single situation - I’m happy to accept it.
 
Thanks Craft, I am thinking along similar lines, dont really like the arguments that rebalancing adds return to the portfolio, I couldnt model that return. As you say it becomes a philosophical exercise, I am no where near those sort of %'s so I am going to concentrate on alternative learning for now!

I think the Altman Z score got a mention in this thread, I am just running a couple of companies thru it and one thing that jumps out at me is that if there is very little debt then the company ends up with a very high score, (because EV/Debt*0.6 = a very high number), but if the debt is 0, then it can end up with a low score (because EV/Debt*0.6=0).

As an example I get a Z score of 1.29 for DWS if I put in debt of 0, but if I put in $1 of debt I get a score of 36216001.29!!

Am I having a blonde moment here?
 
...but if the debt is 0, then it can end up with a low score (because EV/Debt*0.6=0).

As an example I get a Z score of 1.29 for DWS if I put in debt of 0, but if I put in $1 of debt I get a score of 36216001.29!!

Am I having a blonde moment here?

If debt is 0, you'd most likely be getting a divide by zero error in your calcs.
 
If debt is 0, you'd most likely be getting a divide by zero error in your calcs.

Yes, excel gives an error if debt is 0, what i did was overwrite the formula, bv/debt*0.6 and enter a 0 for that value where the debt was 0, then it gave me the score of 1.29. I realise that is not a valid solution to the problem of 0 debt!

What is the solution? Or is the Altman Z score not appropriate to zero and very low levels of debt, and if thats the case what level of debt does it begin to become appropriate?

The obvious point being that are company with no debt, or very low debt is not immune from bankruptcy is it?
 
Altman Z Score - my understanding of how it is calculated based on here:

The original Z-score formula was as follows:

Z = 1.2T1 + 1.4T2 + 3.3T3 + 0.6T4 + 0.99T5

T1 = Working Capital / Total Assets. Measures liquid assets in relation to the size of the company.

T2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets. Measures profitability that reflects the company's age and earning power.

T3 = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets. Measures operating efficiency apart from tax and leveraging factors. It recognizes operating earnings as being important to long-term viability.

T4 = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities. Adds market dimension that can show up security price fluctuation as a possible red flag.

T5 = Sales/ Total Assets. Standard measure for total asset turnover (varies greatly from industry to industry).

For DWS I used the 2014 figures as follows:

t1 = 22.282/73.799 = 0.301928
t2 = 25.603/73.799 = 0.346929
t3 = 18.589/73.799 = 0.251887
t4 = 108.761/13.439 = 8.092938 (MV of Equity based on closing price 7 April 2015)
t5 = 94.397/73.799 = 1.279109

Z = (0.301928*1.2) + (0.346929*1.4) + (0.251887*3.3) + (8.092938*0.6) + (1.279109*0.99)
Z = 0.362314 + 0.4857 + 0.831227 + 4.855763 + 1.266318
Z = 7.801322
 
Altman Z Score - my understanding of how it is calculated based on here:



For DWS I used the 2014 figures as follows:

t1 = 22.282/73.799 = 0.301928
t2 = 25.603/73.799 = 0.346929
t3 = 18.589/73.799 = 0.251887
t4 = 108.761/13.439 = 8.092938 (MV of Equity based on closing price 7 April 2015)
t5 = 94.397/73.799 = 1.279109

Z = (0.301928*1.2) + (0.346929*1.4) + (0.251887*3.3) + (8.092938*0.6) + (1.279109*0.99)
Z = 0.362314 + 0.4857 + 0.831227 + 4.855763 + 1.266318
Z = 7.801322

So you use total liabilities instead of debt? Thats different to the guides I have read! Otherwise I get the same results as you.

EDIT - i will leave this discussion here and start another thread - its not relevant to Craft's main topic anyway.
 
Ok, back on topic! Another company I have been studying for a while is TGR, most of the metrics reflect my belief that it is undervalued currently, but my FCFE calculation comes back very low, hence my DCF valuation is also very low.

I am a complete ameteur compared to you guys when it comes to understanding cash flows and their valuation, but it looks to me like the main reasons for the very low FCFE is the proportionally high delta in working capital and pretty high capex.

The valuation though ends up in a range that is south of $1 - suggesting its very expensive at $3.50.

When i look at a FCF valuation, which is what I used to use, so much simpler, just net operating cash flow less capex, i get a valuation which is many orders of magnitude bigger. I guess thats why a simple FCF analysis is not very reliable!

I suspect the delta in working capital is the driver for the low valuation, in a case like this do you guys then look back at a couple more periods and see if this was an anomoly?

If it turns out to be an anomoly how do you allow for it in a valuation model?
 
Ok, its not an anomoly, it has jumped up a bit in the last period, but going back it was, $23m this period, $18m ppr and $17m before that. mmm...back to the drawing board!
 
Ok, back on topic! Another company I have been studying for a while is TGR, most of the metrics reflect my belief that it is undervalued currently, but my FCFE calculation comes back very low, hence my DCF valuation is also very low.

I am a complete ameteur compared to you guys when it comes to understanding cash flows and their valuation, but it looks to me like the main reasons for the very low FCFE is the proportionally high delta in working capital and pretty high capex.

The valuation though ends up in a range that is south of $1 - suggesting its very expensive at $3.50.

When i look at a FCF valuation, which is what I used to use, so much simpler, just net operating cash flow less capex, i get a valuation which is many orders of magnitude bigger. I guess thats why a simple FCF analysis is not very reliable!

I suspect the delta in working capital is the driver for the low valuation, in a case like this do you guys then look back at a couple more periods and see if this was an anomoly?

If it turns out to be an anomoly how do you allow for it in a valuation model?

Every Free Cash Flow model requires discrimination between maintenance & growth capex/opex. Have you adjusted for growth Capex in PPE and Growth Opex in biological assets etc?
 
Every Free Cash Flow model requires discrimination between maintenance & growth capex/opex. Have you adjusted for growth Capex in PPE and Growth Opex in biological assets etc?

No, I used the line from the Cash Flow, "Payment for property, plant and equipment" as my proxy for Capex.
There is no obvious explanation of the distinction between capex/opex in the report that I can see - but then I wouldnt knwo where to look!
 
No, I used the line from the Cash Flow, "Payment for property, plant and equipment" as my proxy for Capex.
There is no obvious explanation of the distinction between capex/opex in the report that I can see - but then I wouldnt knwo where to look!

The distinction you need to make is between growth expenditure and "existing business maintenance" expenditure.

Existing business maintence expenditure is not discretionary - you either spend it or economically liquidate the existing business. Growth expenditure is discretionary - it could be returned to shareholders if it wasn't used to build the business.


I have no time before heading away for awhile - If it hasn't twigged or someone else hasn't helped out I'll take it up when I get back.

Cheers
 
I'm not sure my question is relevant to the thread but I thought people in this thread would have a thoughtful answer.

In Graham's book, he suggested looking at long term debt to working capital and total debt to net book value (NTA? Are those synonymous?).

I'm unsure how to take these metrics into my analyses. The obvious is that low debt is better but what about when the two metrics are very different?

What would having low long term debt to working capital but having high total debt to net assets mean in terms of interpretation?

From my newbie guess, would it mean that they are highly leveraged but are able to manage their debts?
 
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