Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TLS has made an interesting pattern. There is a small breakout pattern that has developed over the past 6 weeks where a break above resistance suggests a target of $4.24. That being only a 6% gain on yesterday's close, it doesn't exite me from a risk reward perspective. However, when you look at the bigger picture there is a bigger potential resistance break given the earlier try at that level back in 2019. So a break above using that larger pattern suggests a meatier $5.30 target. TLS made what I believe to be a Wyckoff pattern over 2020/2021 (the rectangle) and that theory suggests a target of $4.25 (sound familiar?). There was (not drawn) a larger possible Wyckoff that gave a target of $5.70 that ties up nicely with potential overhead resistance. There's also a strong level of overhead resistance around $5.25 and that's my best guess where price might roll over - if it gets past the interim target of $4.24 (or in fact breaks ressitance at all - given there is a chance price could just fall back to continue the large sideways pattern). TLS announced some structural changes yesterday - perhaps that will be the incentive to break above a very strong level of resistance. My best guess (and it is just a guess) is that price will move up to $4.24, fall back to $4.00 to retest what will then be support, before heading higher. Could be long term hold prospect (while remaining aware of the current high probability of a market correction - which could coincide with my theoretical pull back from that first target. Another interesting aspect of TLS' chart is that from July 2018 to October 2020 it made a text book Elliott Wave cycle pattern - was it a full price cycle or just Waves 1 & 2 of a larger cycle? I'm not sure but I'd opt for the second alternative which would mean price is on the stongest rising wave (Wave3) in a price cycle. If I'm wrong and the 2020 low is the start of a new price cycle then the recent rise is Wave 1 which could be expected to fall back close to the 2020 low. While this sounds like the 'it could go up, or it could go down" analysis, you always need to consider alternative outlooks in charting or you risk severely toasting ones privates!
Lastly, TLS made a double bottom (some might say triple) and it would seem the strong rise that pattern predicts has been fulfilled - but perhaps it has a long way to go yet.

1631830378342.png
 
TLS has made an interesting pattern. There is a small breakout pattern that has developed over the past 6 weeks where a break above resistance suggests a target of $4.24.
Interesting, @Greynomad99. It is quite possible that the market is starting to believe it can once again reinvent itself - TLS v3, or is it v4?

PS

Just had a look at the charts and I will find it even more interesting if it breaks around $4.04. One of my favourite and usually reliable P&F patterns

tls 16092021.jpg
 
Last edited:
TLS has made an interesting pattern. There is a small breakout pattern that has developed over the past 6 weeks where a break above resistance suggests a target of $4.24.
Certainly having a good run and I also noticed it's recovered the dividend payment gap down in price quickly as well.
 
After a few days of China Real Estate fears in the headlines, that has abated by the patching/plugging of the leaky ship. Maybe now I can take my eyes off the media and onto the charts again...?

Airline / Travel stocks showing signs of strength, so I'll post a couple with potential.

It'll be a similar scenario in other stocks in these industries, so I won't post so many charts. DYOR to narrow down to the companies of your choice or past favourites in the sector if you think there might be a flight/travel boom when coming out of these lockdowns...

QAN:
1632406150910.png

WEB:
1632406905640.png
 
After a few days of China Real Estate fears in the headlines, that has abated by the patching/plugging of the leaky ship. Maybe now I can take my eyes off the media and onto the charts again...?

Airline / Travel stocks showing signs of strength, so I'll post a couple with potential.

It'll be a similar scenario in other stocks in these industries, so I won't post so many charts. DYOR to narrow down to the companies of your choice or past favourites in the sector if you think there might be a flight/travel boom when coming out of these lockdowns...

QAN:
View attachment 130652

WEB:
View attachment 130653

Add FLT to those two. Very similar set ups. All Covid stocks.
 
Hi I'm new here, finding this post very interesting fellas! I also noticed that the aviation related stocks (e.g., Qantas, FlightCentre, and Webjet) are following - at least what I believe - a wyckoff accumulation phase. We're now heading into the mark-up phase of the cycle IMO :). I also think ticker FMG is now in an extended accumulation phase. Below is the chart for FMG, it shows how smart money have exited by distributing their holdings during the distribution phase. This may be a good time to - as the name implies - to accumulate!

gfgfg.PNG

This is my estimation on how the accumulation - by following the wyckoff accumulation schematic - may potentially playout.
ffff.PNG
 
Hi I'm new here, finding this post very interesting fellas! I also noticed that the aviation related stocks (e.g., Qantas, FlightCentre, and Webjet) are following - at least what I believe - a wyckoff accumulation phase. We're now heading into the mark-up phase of the cycle IMO :). I also think ticker FMG is now in an extended accumulation phase. Below is the chart for FMG, it shows how smart money have exited by distributing their holdings during the distribution phase. This may be a good time to - as the name implies - to accumulate!

Hi Soke, welcome aboard. :)

Not sure if FMG is looking at a 'potential breakout' at the moment, or maybe going through a dead cat bounce, or potential recovery mode.

There's quite a few threads on Wyckoff trading on the site you might want to visit where your analysis of FMG might fit in better, or in the FMG thread itself.

Unless, of course, if Wyckoff is saying 'potential breakout'...
 
I've dabbled with Wyckoff patterns but can't see one in FMG. If anyone can point it out to me I'd be grateful.

FMG made a double top and that pattern is usually very reliable in predicting significant falls. In FMG's case that suggests a bottom around $11.20 - so perhaps a few falling knives to catch here?

1632778659569.png
 
With a bit of uncertainty kicking around from the East, I stopped looking at breakout for the time being. From past experience, breakouts provide a higher chance of success continuing upwards when the overall market is bullish.

However I noticed those travel agents we were looking at earlier have broken out strongly upwards possibly even overheating with the gap up today...

FLT:
1633325142463.png

HLO:
1633325279487.png

If the classic saying, share prices predict the future is true, let's pack our bags for that trip I suppose... ?
 
Yes, I was looking at FLT, WEB and HLO last night to see if I thougt there was hidden treasure here. HLO I don't like the chart for a range of reasons but WEB and FLT might be worth a punt. FLT has spiked towards where I see a target and while I think it will go higher than its current price I suspect a short term pullback is then likely. WEB is the better bet for me but I'm concerned we may be into a correction which (if correct) would make all new trades inherently risky.
That said - it is hard to deny the logic that if borders open then travel starved Aussies will run for the door and push the fortunes of the travel industry up. I'm expecting a lot of hesitency from travellers given the vaccine is not a 100% guarantee you won't get Covid and possibly die as a result. Small risk agreed, but enough to have people thinking a holiday in Port Douglas might be safer that Phuket. It will take a long time before it is business as usual. And then there is almost sure to be a new variant around next year etc etc ..........
 
Add this one to the pre-potential breakout list. :)

It looks like it's starting to wind up and narrowing down to an inflection point. It might not keep narrowing, but if it does, something will have to give at some point. So, it's on my watch list for a potential breakout.

Screen Shot 2021-10-12 at 1.07.00 pm.png
 
Last edited:
Add this one to the pre-potential breakout list. :)

It looks like it's starting to wind up and narrowing down to an inflection point. It might not keep narrowing, but if it does, something will have to give at some point. So, it's on my watch list for a potential breakout.

View attachment 131424
This looked like it was breaking up on Friday with a nice candle, then they came out with what looked like a very nice driling update this am and kapow, down 10%. Very unusual. Maybe a buy the rumour sell the facts type thing.

So, still in pre-potential breakout position...

Screen Shot 2021-10-18 at 2.53.42 pm.png
 
This looked like it was breaking up on Friday with a nice candle, then they came out with what looked like a very nice driling update this am and kapow, down 10%. Very unusual. Maybe a buy the rumour sell the facts type thing.

So, still in pre-potential breakout position...

View attachment 131636
Not easy getting breakouts to follow through in the current market, which is why I am not posting much. There's plenty of setups happening otherwise.

I've actually monitored few stocks that I thought I might buy on breakouts but didn't, decided to paper trade instead. They've gone nowhere, backwards in some cases !

Oil/Gas stock BYE was the only purchase recently that looks to be trending up from a base.

I could label the current market as a "Game of Luck"

Take Over / Asset Sale frenzy, nice profits to those on board these stocks...

1634529136563.png


1634529107413.png


DNH either.
 
Top