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Popping Festering Cankers

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and I'd have to put ID8 in this category ... Wrote this less than a month ago :
...did not buy this one, and for a good reason.
ID8 went for a capital raise in Feb, when it was trading around 19 to 20c range, and was in a Halt for nearly 4 months. When it returned, and Covid had reared its head during this time, they got away with an Institutional Offer of 1 new for 1 existing share at 7c . Raised all of $1.9million.
Since then, has traded on fair volume, held above the 7c level which is handy, and now around 9c. News coming out is sluggish, always talking about Tier 1 bank (HSBC) , moving into FX as well. A viable business?
(Pass)
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Ok so remember this post?

over9k said:
Here's one that I KNOW will be an epic buy:

The companies that DON'T produce the first coronavirus vaccine. The reason why I say this is because there are lots of different types of vaccines, with varying quality, dosages, requirements for production etc etc etc.

So company A gets the first one. Company A's stock jumps, company B's stock tanks. But company B isn't going to stop developing theirs as theirs will be an alternative that can be produced IN PARALLEL. It could also be higher quality and/or a superior product in some kind of way.

Unless both are the exact same type of vaccine, both will be produced at the same time. Hence why I'm going to go and buy up all the OTHER drug companies once someone finally gets to the first one. A lot of people think that a vaccine is a vaccine is a vaccine, and this simply isn't true.
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Now check this out:

asfdasfdadsfads.jpg

afdsasfadsfas.jpg

There's your pop.

(and your dip, if you want to deploy a few bucks ;) )
 
I bounced this one off Frugal in another thread tonight ..

It is a prime example of a Festering Canker. For some reason I feel more at ease throwing money at an FC than I do at a fancy looking balance sheet, but maybe I just like cheap Stocks:p

Anyway, I've been in this one (XTC) since 28 Feb this year. at $0.002

Could have sold out and doubled my investment less than a month later, but I only put a small wager on and always intended to hold for a bigger piece of pie, or alternatively end up with nothing (Zero is my stop loss which is also unlikely)

XTC price action was again frisky over the last few days with Punters buying at 0.003 when there appeared no reason to stump up the additional premium.

Today, the 003's got line wiped so that is the new level for the time being.

Point of the post is ...... FC's are a punt, but there are often "tell tale" signs.

Main ones I look for in order are:-

1) Small/Tiny Market Cap
2) Price that has been belted up for a long time and usually going sideways for a long time
3) Unusual Volume movement ... sometimes accompanied by Price movement but not always
4) The Volume movement is sometimes weeks or months before anything happens ... therefore
5) Check the Co's Fundamental position!
6) Do they have something of potential in the pipeline/to offer. How much could it be worth?
7) Finally, if they have some/enough available cash to back all the above up ... then,
8) Accumulate at the Lows.

The amount invested is relative to the amount of confidence (1)-(8) above instills

In this example, XTC is very Spec, so I only put a small wager on so my Stop Loss is "lose the lot" and my Profit target is 4X my initial stake.

Given the current price action, I think it may have another move soon, but I would not be paying 0.004 for it ... That is why FC's should be accumulated at the Lows. Limited downside/lower risk:)

XTC 25Aug2020.jpg
 
Problem is, as I've shown in a couple of other threads, coronavirus has basically accelerated the move from smaller players (in EVERY industry) into the larger ones, only increasing the likelihood that an investment in the little guy will go t1ts-up.

Gotta find those few things which have surged (like furniture sales and gold).
 
There are a few interesting innovative companies amongst all the rubble but I fear putting much into anything at the moment due to survivorship risk.

These disruptors need a constant flow of money via capital raisings and I am doubtful investors are happy to throw bucket loads at them each time they put their hand out in this environment.
 
There's a handful that have struck gold because of it though. I originally bought zoom at $198 for example. Same with ebay, paypal, square, amazon, anything that was "stay at home" already on a long/slow structural increase and then saw 5 years' of change in just a few months.

The gloss has come off quite a lot of them/I think a lot are now fully priced though so DYOR. I've nuked my docusign position for example. I still hold amazon & zoom.
 
@over9k
Can you please take note that this thread is in ASX stock chat.
Much obliged young chap.

PS; You might consider starting your own thread in the trading diary/ journal section.
As a full time trader, you have made many valuable contributions to the forum, with thanks, and I am sure many more...however your rallying against @ducati916 is a little disconcerting.
Thanks in anticipation of your consideration.
Back to squeezing the puss from the cankers ...
 
frugal.rock said:
@over9k
Can you please take note that this thread is in ASX stock chat.
Much obliged young chap.

PS; You might consider starting your own thread in the trading diary/ journal section.
As a full time trader, you have made many valuable contributions to the forum, with thanks, and I am sure many more...however your rallying against @ducati916 is a little disconcerting.
Thanks in anticipation of your consideration.
Back to squeezing the puss from the cankers ...
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Not sure what you mean reference ducati, but duly noted with the rest :)
 
over9k said:
Not sure what you mean reference ducati, but duly noted with the rest :)
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Let me know where (threads) you are off to over9k, I am more interested in trading/investing in the small/mid/large caps myself. So keep us informed as to where you are off to...

I've had my days in the micro-cap days in the past and may occasionally visit this thread to post if I find a microcap that is interesting enough and pops. Will be happy to read other microcap trader/investor posts here of course, so thank you for the initiative to start the thread frugal.rock. The new "Goggle-eyed Cat" Avatar rocks :xyxthumbs
 
Well said above @aus_trader regarding @over9k involvement. I'm in the opposite camp in that I prefer micro/small caps, but having the input of a full time trader such as "O9" will no doubt be valuable to a large percentage of Punters on ASF.

PPS The google eyed cat does "rock" but was a little frightening when I logged on this morning:nailbiting:

I thought Froogal had accidentally swallowed some soiled kitty litter:eek::wacky:
 
barney said:
I'm in the opposite camp in that I prefer micro/small caps, but having the input of a full time trader such as "O9" will no doubt be valuable to a large percentage of Punters on ASF.
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Cheers Barnz, I will definitely be watching you guys posting these cankers exploding upwards and you seem to have a good system (judging by the charts you attached) or an experienced method for trading these.

I will post if I come across any good Cankers, although will not be trading with my own money at this stage. Sorry, I'll be upfront and say I don't have experience or a system to trade these but may paper-trade them to check the performance over time. Who knows, a profitable edge may come to fruition...
 
aus_trader said:
Cheers Barnz, you seem to have a good system or an experienced method for trading these.
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Cheers AUS .... Yourself and most "regular" successful punters adhere to a trading criteria which is both sensible and smart.

It's possibly a scary thought (if I cared to think about it:eek:), but I have

NO System,
NO trading plan, and some may suggest,
NO sense:D

I made so many poor trading decisions in my past, that all I have to do is

NOT DO what I used to do!!:rolleyes::D, and that is actually a workable Trading system lol.


Seriously though, Trading Micro Specs suits me.

Every Trader needs to work out what suits them and stop doing what they are not good at:blackeye:

Personally, I think Festering Cankers (with potential) are a lot easier to spot than a "failing Blue Chip":smuggrin:

But, I am a freelance Musician who plays anything/everything by Ear.

Everyone is different

Enough babbling:happy:
 
barney said:
Every Trader needs to work out what suits them and stop doing what they are not good at:blackeye:
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This is a gem of a one-liner. Yes so true.

Although I am busy and occupied with what I am doing, I also believe in continuous learning and I may certainly learn a thing or two from this thread going forward, despite not being successful with the Penny end of the market in the past.
 
aus_trader said:
despite not being successful with the Penny end of the market in the past.
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The penny end of be market hasn't been great before, meaning opportunities were few and far between. Thanks to covid, cashed up crazy cats and some bigger money here and there, there's quite a few more opportunities.
How long will it last? Dunno.
But I firmly believe one neeeds to "make hay whilst the sun shines."
Some of these stocks have been on my watchlists for over 15 years...


Like this one... IBG
5 Year chart.
Screenshot_20200826-191218.png

6 month line chart
Screenshot_20200826-191243.png

6 month daily candles

Screenshot_20200826-191253.png

A small entry has been made on $0.012 recently. Fingers crossed it pops.
 
has the VOL taken flight?

I run watchlists with about 100 likely candidates and, today, only two are meaningfully moving ... 10% at the very least. Perhaps we have had Peak Fester and things are settling down.

On the debit side, WZR brought out its FY results and its down 12%, but thereagain, the BNPL sector would have to be stretched and most players would be about to burst on anything less than perfection.

But, putting in another sterling performance today; DEG as a goldie is remarkable, a twenty bagger since Feb
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