Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Popping Festering Cankers

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frugal.rock said:
Echo. I purchased earlier in the week. :p
Unprecedented time's are creating unprecedented opportunities.
Selectively and coordinatated. It's not just the dumb money...
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Yeah ... Lots of recent Volume.

I generally accumulate anything I think looks interesting to spread the heat ...

I see .022 as the current base and will consider adding at that level (if it drops)

Preferably like to see it hold 024-025 and rise from there though ( I have too many Stocks at the moment; running out of Powder!)

Caveat: When so many Spec Stocks start going crazy ... Its time to become cautious. The World is not in great shape and the wheels will get wobblier/Specs could get left lying in the dust:depressed:
 
tech/a said:
The point of this thread?

Look how that was flat now I can see it’s risen 100%?

Some here have made a motza by the looks
How Did you find them?
Why did you buy them?
Where and why will you sell them?


Unfortunately the thread title does nothing for
Marketing of the thread might be worth changing
To get more interest and participation .
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As @tech/a said, how do you predict these small cap stocks shooting skyward? Or are we all just posting FC's after the fact? Some of the posts show FC's skyrocketing, others show FC's flatlining, but all seem to be after the fact.

Also, if these small caps can rise so quickly, can't they fall just as fast?

If you bought say 10 of these, without knowing the future, what is your prediction of what your overall profit might be? I know, a vague question, but do you think "rich", "break even", "broke", or "I have no bloody idea"?
 
aus_trader said:
I actually don't actively monitor that end of the market any more as I found the results can be very unpredictable and too heart raising !

Anyway, hope this one fit's the bill as it popped up recently, but a bit less speccy:

CDD:
View attachment 107902
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Would you (anyone, not just aus_trader) have bought on the tiny red bar in late July, or the next day on the big jump? Because that would make all the difference :)
 
Linus van Pelt said:
As @tech/a said, how do you predict these small cap stocks shooting skyward? Or are we all just posting FC's after the fact? Some of the posts show FC's skyrocketing, others show FC's flatlining, but all seem to be after the fact.

Also, if these small caps can rise so quickly, can't they fall just as fast?

If you bought say 10 of these, without knowing the future, what is your prediction of what your overall profit might be? I know, a vague question, but do you think "rich", "break even", "broke", or "I have no bloody idea"?
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1. Any prediction methods are the same as any other stock, but with a lower expectancy (if that's the right word, ie, lower chance of expected or perceived outcomes).

2. Yes

3. "I have no bloody idea", however consider 10 positions of 500 each.
If 1 position jumps 1000%, it pays for all.

The whole concept is the same as, if you are looking for a shooting star, there's ways of maximising the chances of finding one.
If you don't own a FC, it can never pop like a FC. The current climate seems to be bringing them out a bit more often, a hyper sensitivity.
Random lucky dip.
 
Linus van Pelt said:
Would you (anyone, not just aus_trader) have bought on the tiny red bar in late July, or the next day on the big jump? Because that would make all the difference :)
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That chart has a big clue (massive volume signal) 1 month before.
Equalibrium slightly past the mid point between the two volume spikes. After that, it's forming a setup.
The real FC's have virtually nothing to indicate any action, it's often just a good news Ann "out of the blue".
The expected hyper sensitivity of any anticipated rise is not determinable either.
 
Here's a barcode to scan. :confused:
I didn't want to mention this one.
It's so...low, festering to the extreme... but....
Screenshot_20200821-232911.png
 
@Linus van Pelt Me thinks that this thread is mainly satirical so that a few can vent their frustrations at being in the wrong stock at the wrong time. I would have thought that canker stocks are the dog stocks that have done nothing other than being a drain. The fact that a few of them perked up eventually and we're not on, shows how deficient we are in our planning and execution. As with everything trading these microcaps requires a plan. If one can profit from a batch of 10 then go for it.

However there's been some interesting companies posted. It would be nicer if people posted these charts in the stock specific threads. Even if posted in jest, a chart or company might be of interest to someone else. I liked the DXN chart and posted my comments in the DXN thread. I'm certain there are other companies posted in this thread that will interest some.

Idea: If one were to research the time interval between huge volume without news and then the subsequent news, I think there may be an edge to exploit. Insiders have to comply with ASX rules. I'm saying no more about this.

Scanning barcodes is all very nice because we might win a prize but it's pointless without knowing the company narrative. Barcodes like the ones posted are "dead in the water" or are they?
 
Linus van Pelt said:
As @tech/a said, how do you predict these small cap stocks shooting skyward?
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Similiar to financial modelling in that you can know with pretty decent certainty that if A occurs then B will follow, you find one where A has occurred and wait for B.

Gold strikes with the mines are easy ones as particular types of strikes and soils etc produce particular grades of soils. A LOT of people were looking at DEG before it popped for precisely this kind of reason and the current predictions are that they've hit a spot where there'll be several million ounces of gold by the time the strike goes dry.

You need to talk to someone that works in the industry so they can explain what to look for like that. I just happen to have a friend that works in a gold mine and so he's been able to tell me "this type of strike usually produces this, that type of strike usually produces that", so on and so forth.
 
Here's a really simple one:

Coronavirus vaccines. I think there's six vaccines at stage 3 trials at the moment. Apparently, roughly 50% of trials which reach stage 3 end up passing it/going to market, so with this information alone, we can say that any company with a vaccine at stage 3 has a 50/50 shot of it working out and them making epic bank.
 
Linus van Pelt said:
Would you (anyone, not just aus_trader) have bought on the tiny red bar in late July, or the next day on the big jump? Because that would make all the difference :)
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I think it's extremely difficult to predict in advance a stock before the 'pop'. However there is probably opportunities after the pop if it is due to a trigger that may initiate an uptrend or a rally in the stock.

So in the case of CDD, I have monitored it during the long downtrend and only looks interesting now after the 'pop' with volume, so that's why I decided to post it in this thread.
 
Here's one that I KNOW will be an epic buy:

The companies that DON'T produce the first coronavirus vaccine. The reason why I say this is because there are lots of different types of vaccines, with varying quality, dosages, requirements for production etc etc etc.

So company A gets the first one. Company A's stock jumps, company B's stock tanks. But company B isn't going to stop developing theirs as theirs will be an alternative that can be produced IN PARALLEL. It could also be higher quality and/or a superior product in some kind of way.

Unless both are the exact same type of vaccine, both will be produced at the same time. Hence why I'm going to go and buy up all the OTHER drug companies once someone finally gets to the first one. A lot of people think that a vaccine is a vaccine is a vaccine, and this simply isn't true.
 
aus_trader said:
I think it's extremely difficult to predict in advance a stock before the 'pop'. However there is probably opportunities after the pop if it is due to a trigger that may initiate an uptrend or a rally in the stock.

So in the case of CDD, I have monitored it during the long downtrend and only looks interesting now after the 'pop' with volume, so that's why I decided to post it in this thread.
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Thanks @aus_trader. Just to be clear, I wasn't "having a go". I was just trying to better understand the message in this thread. Thanks for your additional perspective above, i.e some possibilities after the 'pop'.

It just seemed like folks were posting microcaps that had either skyrocketed recently, or flatlined for a while. Anyone can post whatever matches their message...after the fact. If I could do this before the fact, I wouldn't be here, I'd be sipping cocktails on my private island :D.

While I'd love to double, triple, or more my money in one day (or one hour), I don't have the skill to predict when that would happen, nor do I want to lose all my money in an hour either. I don't think the volatility of these microcaps is for me, but more power to those who can make it work.

@peter2 also helped put some context around this thread for me.

(While tech/a suggested a better title, it was actually the title that got me to read this thread :) )
 
over9k said:
Here's a really simple one:

Coronavirus vaccines. I think there's six vaccines at stage 3 trials at the moment. Apparently, roughly 50% of trials which reach stage 3 end up passing it/going to market, so with this information alone, we can say that any company with a vaccine at stage 3 has a 50/50 shot of it working out and them making epic bank.
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Hey @over9k,

This may be a dumb question, but hopefully I'll be less dumb after your answer...

How do you keep up with financial/industry news? Coronavirus is such a hot topic, perhaps you know the above just by living life. While I'm working toward technical trading, I need to find a way to keep up with fundamental/financial/company announcements. My broker has a company announcement section, but I can't click them all. There just aren't enough hours in the day.

Perhaps setting up some RSS feed? Or some other "bot" that sends the news to me?

(Apologies if I'm hijacking the subject of this thread...)
 
Linus van Pelt said:
Thanks @aus_trader. Just to be clear, I wasn't "having a go". I was just trying to better understand the message in this thread. Thanks for your additional perspective above, i.e some possibilities after the 'pop'.

It just seemed like folks were posting microcaps that had either skyrocketed recently, or flatlined for a while. Anyone can post whatever matches their message...after the fact. If I could do this before the fact, I wouldn't be here, I'd be sipping cocktails on my private island :D.

While I'd love to double, triple, or more my money in one day (or one hour), I don't have the skill to predict when that would happen, nor do I want to lose all my money in an hour either. I don't think the volatility of these microcaps is for me, but more power to those who can make it work.

@peter2 also helped put some context around this thread for me.

(While tech/a suggested a better title, it was actually the title that got me to read this thread :) )
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No worries Linus van Pelt, thanks for asking. I am quite happy to explain my stock selection process openly and have been doing so for a while now in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.

As I mentioned earlier, I don't actively monitor the microcap space these days as my time is occupied by researching the small caps and their bigger competitors. Besides I found the performance was nearly unpredictable and drawdowns were huge when trading microcaps in the past. Just my own experience, but other members may have better results trading microcap stocks. :xyxthumbs :cautious:
 
Linus van Pelt said:
Hey @over9k,

This may be a dumb question, but hopefully I'll be less dumb after your answer...

How do you keep up with financial/industry news? Coronavirus is such a hot topic, perhaps you know the above just by living life. While I'm working toward technical trading, I need to find a way to keep up with fundamental/financial/company announcements. My broker has a company announcement section, but I can't click them all. There just aren't enough hours in the day.

Perhaps setting up some RSS feed? Or some other "bot" that sends the news to me?

(Apologies if I'm hijacking the subject of this thread...)
Click to expand...
Well unlike most around here that just do this on the side I trade my own money full time from home so I have bloomberg, cnbc, and abc news 24 streaming 24/7.

Bloomberg's I think $360usd for the year but they have a trial period where you get the first 3 months for like $5 and then you either pay by month or you can pay for a whole year upfront and it's only $250usd. CNBC are the same but there's no trial period.

A bloomberg terminal iirc is $25k usd but that's all inclusive of everything bloomberg do (news, articles, streaming, alerts etc) and they'll let you do a free trial of that for a couple of weeks before making a commitment too. You also get the five star gold plated rolls royce service with it as well - they take you through a whole teaching period where they show you how to use it, you get a personal call from their rep alex once you express interest and he helps you with what you need, they're on call 24/7 if you want to know how to do or find something (you just call them and be like "hey I'm trying to figure out X" and they'll show you where it is or tell you how to do it), you get EVERYTHING with their terminal.

There are also free daily newsletters/"what need to know's" from both and then there's other websites and analysts that run their own gigs that I subscribe to as well (hotcopper and peter zeihan both come to mind). My brokers (commsec and pershing) also do similiar emails/newsletters and have their daily news feeds as soon as you log on too obviously.

Peter zeihan also does info sessions with Q&A's iirc monthly for $750USD/session which are again, expensive, but I can assure you, more than paid for themselves when I implemented their info into my trading. His first one was free and I can link you to it if you like so you can get an idea of just how good he is.


98% of all I've listed is just nothing, it's stuff that everyone already know or really irrelevant to anything or whatever, but like insurance, you don't watch it for the 98% of the footage you don't need, you watch it for the 2% that actually tells you something/2% of the time you actually need it.

It seems like a bit of an outlay but think of it like this - if it saves your ass on just one trade for the entire year, it's paid for itself.


And never feel silly for asking a question - only fuckwits don't like teaching the new guys. We were all the new guy once.
 
Oh if you're a young lad and what I've mentioned is a lot of money to outlay, another one I forgot is yahoo finance.

You'd be surprised just how good yahoo finance is considering that it's FREE.

They do a youtube stream every day that's free and most of their site and articles are free as well. If you don't want to put up any cash just yet, use yahoo finance. Their site even live-updates market data so you can stream everything in realtime.

They then do a "premium" service that's something like $300usd/year that gives you more granular data, articles/analysis, the ability to link your broker and holdings into their service, more bells & whistles etc etc that I reckon you'll consider to be well worth it if you like their free service.
 
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