PNV - Polynovo Limited

[Boggo]

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Bailed out with a one cent per share + 2 x brokerage loss.

 

[Ferret]

I sold yesterday at 2.94 after it had retraced 10% from its recent high. Very lucky with the timing.

 

[mikejosef]

PNV looking good to me,
0 debt, lots of cash, big bounce today and lots of insider trading
Price at posting: $1.63

 

[tinhat]

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Bailed out with a one cent per share + 2 x brokerage loss.

View attachment 100765

Nice timing there Bogo. I hope you've got back in since then. Not too late. I'm most bullish on PNV within my portfolio. Anything under $2 is a bargain in my back of envelope world of investing. They've got the surgical Blu Tack. Ain't it funky.

 

[tinhat]

It's getting funky now. Announcement out today. Look upon my Kingdom Ye mighty and despair.

 

[Knobby22]

Look upon my Kingdom Ye mighty and despair.

....Nothing besides remains.

 

[Boggo]

Nice timing there Bogo. I hope you've got back in since then. Not too late. I'm most bullish on PNV within my portfolio. Anything under $2 is a bargain in my back of envelope world of investing. They've got the surgical Blu Tack. Ain't it funky.

Looking good now tinny, I'll be hitting you up for a cheap loan soon
I waited a while but got back in yesterday when it looked like staying above $2.30.

 

[tinhat]

I've been taking profit.

 

[tinhat]

I like this as a long term growth stock. I'm still expecting a further pullback but quite frankly what does it matter other than I am a stingy guy and I'm doing OK with gold miners lately so I am happy to shuffle things around. This stock is going to make holders a lot of money in my humble opinion. I might put some of my cashed up profit back into this stock at some stage. Still holding a nice chunk in the SMSF.

 

[tinhat]

I've sold down more since my last post and I am not sure yet that it was the right thing to do. My target buy price for buying was the range of 2 to 2.20. I might need to start buying back at 2.40. If this stock starts marching up I will just buy.

I'm still rather long PNV. I I top up again it will be for a longer term.

If there is anyone reading these fora who are looking for a good long term prospect, please do some research into Polynovo.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

....Nothing besides remains.

Ozymandias NL

 

[Dona Ferentes]

PolyNovo has received funding of $US15 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to support the Pivotal trial program of NovoSorb BTM.

The trial will gather extensive data on the effectiveness of NovoSorb BTM in the treatment of full thickness burns and will allow PolyNovo to apply for premarket approval approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for this treatment indication. It is already approved for this treatment outside the US.

 

[tinhat]

Classic head and shoulders playing out on the weekly as I predicted back in May. Serious money to be made backing this stock over the long run IMHO. I'm in this for the long term but I'm rather chuffed at how well I have played the price action to accumulate over the last six months.

Other speckies in this space worth checking out are EMV and MEM. If you want to get really speckie look at ANP and KZA.

 

[tinhat]

I believe this will be a failed/false head and shoulders in that I don't anticipate the share price to drop below the right hand shoulder. I expect a reversal. Unless there is some very bad news in the yearly report or the shorters are able to exploit overall market weakness/pull-back to drive it down further.

Trading on the 17 July signaled to me that the shorting campaign to drive the price down was exhausting. buying kicked in to push the close price back up above the open.

The chart moved into accumulation with support around $2.20 and resistance around $2.30. Last week however, short interest went back up with another push to bring the price down. Note that head and shoulders neckline (yellow) appears to be maintaining support.

I am very long term bullish on PNV. I bought around the $2.20 to $2.25 mark recently and if it drops down below $2 I will buy again. It could get down to $1.80.

Polynovo is still an early stage, pre-profit, company. COVID-19 will have had an impact on what should be an exciting period of sales growth through adoption by surgeons. Its Novosorb Biodegradable Temporising Matrix, I believe, will be widely adopted as best practice for dermal reconstruction, such as under skin grafts, other reconstructive surgery such as Mastectomy. They are developing a product for hernia repair.

Being pre-profit and trading at an elevated PE, stocks like PNV tend to be the first to fall, fall harder but recover sooner during a market correction. That was the case during March.

Phil King of Regal Funds Management came out and said in the media some time ago now that they were shorting PNV. Well, Regal haven't done too well with their short strategy lately so I read. I'm certainly outperforming Regal's Long Short fund by a country mile.

But I guess that is the great thing about being a fund manager. You only have to find enough people more stupid than you to part with their money to generate an income stream through management fees.

Phil King you're a ding dong. Here's some advice. Stick to the basics. Is the product a winner (does it meet a need)? (hint: it's the best and likely to be globally adopted clinically, perhaps to become clinical best practice). Are the management on their game? (hint: yes). Is the strategy right (hint: yes, but COVID-19 presents headwinds).

But then again, I should be thanking you Phil and your hapless investors who are getting what I consider to be a poor return in your long short fund. You see, I get to profit from your short campaign, which you so kindly announced to the media ("'Bubble' in biotech stocks troubles investors", AFR 25 Nov 2019) along with your reported proclamation that the biotech sector is "the biggest bubble in the Australian stock market" back in November 2019, not long after you were inducted into the "Funds Management Hall of Fame" (I know what you're thinking, does the managed funds industry really have a hall of fame? Well ask yourself, does the circus have clowns?) around about the time the AFP raided Regal's offices and ASIC announced an investigation into Regal ("ASIC investigates prominent investor Regal Funds Management", SMH, 26 November 2019).

Little retail investors like myself can sit back and watch the chart and the shorting and nimbly trade and take advantage of the long and short campaigns of fund managers like you without the inconvenience of AFP raids and ASIC investigations.

Anyway... PNV, I'm long, recently topped up but the share price could be driven lower in the short term by the accumulators before a turnaround and it head back up. Great company, good management, great product and good strategy and implementation so far. The yearly report will give an updated picture of how things are going, especially given COVID-19 headwinds.

[edited: typo "AFP" not "AFR"]

 

[tinhat]

Some of those charts got jumbled. This is the trading on the 17th July that I thought indicated exhaustion of the downtrend and the start of accumulation.

And a chart designed to stroke my optimism but also shows where the lower support channel might kick in (green)

 

[tinhat]

I mentioned Phil King's comment of late November 2019 that the biotech sector is the biggest bubble in the Australian stock market. What a drongo.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

PolyNovo revealed its financial year net loss widened to $4.35 million, from $3.41 million. Revenue jumped to $22.16 million, from $13.49 million.

Excluding share-based payments, the company's net loss of $2.132 million for financial year 2020 os 31.1 per cent higher than a year ago.

In financial year 2020, NovoSorb BTM sales more than doubled. Strong sales performances were recorded in the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

"The impact of COVID-19 has had little short-term impact on PolyNovo and we continue to plan for significant revenue and account growth. The year ahead is still uncertain. "For financial year 2021 we anticipated doubling our sales revenues. NovoSorb BTM European markets will expand further in financial year 2021 through a mix of distributor appointments and direct market entries."Asian markets are also anticipated to grow with new regulatory approvals forecast in the second quarter and third quarter."

down 10%

 

[Knobby22]

I am a bit disappointed costs have increased greatly and some of it isn't explained fully however they are expanding and hiring quickly so you do expect costs to generally rise.

Are they get new offices as well as building new plant? Building valued at 8.8mil for construction in progress and property, plant and equipment rising from 6mil to 18 mil. They do say the factory is now complete.

Borrowings have increased from $2mil to $9.4mil.
Cash in bank 11 mil.
Revenue increased to 22 mil from 13 mil.

Lots of new products to come out and I am sure the present product sales will keep increasing so hopefully spinning of cash this time next year.

 

[galumay]

I suggest you come back in two years time and relook at it then.

If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!

Let's agree to meet here again in January 2022 to see where PNV is at in terms of earnings, return on equity and share price then. I hold.

So 6 months into our 2 year target and its gone backwards, bigger losses, more debt. The task ahead in the next 18 months has got harder and more unlikely IMO. (Posting this more as a reminder for myself than anything else.)

 

[Knobby22]

Bought some more today at $2.15 and back to my original holding before I sold during the initial Covid fall.
I consider this a very safe hold in the vein of CSL.