Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Philip Lowe's days are numbered?

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Personally no I wouldn't want those rates, but the actual figures aren't the point I was trying to make, it's the timeframe of movement.
Why did Brazil start jacking up rates?
They started jacking them up before Lowe was still sprouting transient and 2024 !
 
frugal.rock said:
Personally no I wouldn't want those rates, but the actual figures aren't the point I was trying to make, it's the timeframe of movement.
Why did Brazil start jacking up rates?
They started jacking them up before Lowe was still sprouting transient and 2024 !
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I would guess it's because our economy is meant to be more stable, welfare and all that, families not rumaging over rubish tips , tourist buses not being pulled over on the highway and everyone on the bus being robbed (a mate actually experienced it) a welfare state where people are given money when they don't work, as opposed to one where you just starve.
But I suppose using their fiscal graph compared to ours is ok, every other half ar$ed thing is used, so why not that. LOL
But having said that, in 50 years time I think the comparison will be very relevant. LOL
 
Yeah, I purposely didn't draw attention to the rates side of things because of what's probably the obvious differences between the countries.

If I can refocus you to the timeframe thing (and damage and inflation all pandemic related and then the flow on from Europe problems etc) with the question still remains why they moved so much earlier than us... or rather, why was the RBA so slow to get off the "transient" bandwagon...
Yes, I know, the data....sigh.
 
frugal.rock said:
Yeah, I purposely didn't draw attention to the rates side of things because of what's probably the obvious differences between the countries.

If I can refocus you to the timeframe thing (and damage and inflation all pandemic related and then the flow on from Europe problems etc) with the question still remains why they moved so much earlier than us... or rather, why was the RBA so slow to get off the "transient" bandwagon...
Yes, I know, the data....sigh.
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Maybe I can refocus your attention back to the fundamental differences in the economies yet again.
Brazil wouldn't have paid people to stay home and also wouldnt have paid companies to maintain wages, when they werent functioning.
Also they probably didnt pay welfare payments, whereas in Australia they were doubled.
So just maybe that extra money being pumped into the economy, caused a buffer that manifested itself in a time delay , as opposed to a third world country that didnt pump in the monetary support.
But hey I may have it completely wrong, I dont have a problem with that.
Probably due to a dumb treasurer, by the way have you ever checked out Frydenberg's background.? Rather than relying on a media assesment.

The same applies to the RBA, to compare our response to inflation, with a South American response, is just pre empting what our response will be in 50 years time, when we have a similar population and economy.
 
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I'm not disagreeing with anything you are saying trawler, further, I ain't commenting on that side of things. (Honestly, I saw the rate difference and precluded my mind from travelling down that warren, Pandora's Box an all)

Timing. That's all I am referring to.

Do you honestly think that the RBA has done such a great job?
(I know we are shooting the messenger here...)

If rates had started ticking up earlier, at a guess, they wouldn't have to go as high and as for long, to do the job intended.

As stated by others, they (RBA) only have one weapon. It wasn't drawn early enough I reckon.
 
frugal.rock said:
I'm not disagreeing with anything you are saying trawler, further, I ain't commenting on that side of things. (Honestly, I saw the rate difference and precluded my mind from travelling down that warren, Pandora's Box an all)

Timing. That's all I am referring to.

Do you honestly think that the RBA has done such a great job?
(I know we are shooting the messenger here...)

If rates had started ticking up earlier, at a guess, they wouldn't have to go as high and as for long, to do the job intended.

As stated by others, they (RBA) only have one weapon. It wasn't drawn early enough I reckon.
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Absolutely I think the covid and post covid response in fiscal terms, has been nothing short of amazing.
When you look at past historical economic 'disasters', nothing has compared to the complete shutting down of the economic system that happened during covid, yet 12 months on we are but a blimp on the chart of both the asx and the interest rate graph.
When you have worked in process control and with dynamic systems, to actually achieve a response to such huge dynamic and variable inputs, it is nothing short of amazing.
You just have to look back to the GFC, which had minor fiscal impact and yet the market impact resulted in the asx not recovering for 10 years.
The covid response fiscally was much greater, therefore the feedback loop from the stimulus would be much greater, yet the response dampening has been very good and a massive overshoot may well not happen.
So yes ATM I think the RBA has done an incredible job, with a very blunt instrument.
I think most of the whining is coming from over extended media egos that are bleeding from the nose, because of huge mortgages, but I could be wrong, as I often am.
 
sptrawler said:
Absolutely I think the covid and post covid response in fiscal terms, has been nothing short of amazing.
When you look at past historical economic 'disasters', nothing has compared to the complete shutting down of the economic system that happened during covid, yet 12 months on we are but a blimp on the chart of both the asx and the interest rate graph.
When you have worked in process control and with dynamic systems, to actually achieve a response to such huge dynamic and variable inputs, it is nothing short of amazing.
You just have to look back to the GFC, which had minor fiscal impact and yet the market impact resulted in the asx not recovering for 10 years.
The covid response fiscally was much greater, therefore the feedback loop from the stimulus would be much greater, yet the response dampening has been very good and a massive overshoot may well not happen.
So yes ATM I think the RBA has done an incredible job, with a very blunt instrument.
I think most of the whining is coming from over extended media egos that are bleeding from the nose, because of huge mortgages, but I could be wrong, as I often am.
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what if the Covid response was a storm-in-a-teacup and the real crisis was in September 2019 , the economy still hasn't recovered only high-profile winners selected , polished up with media spin and massive cash injections and the backbone of this nation the SMEs may never recover fully this time due to the extra frivolous burdens placed on them while under 'emergency circumstances '

and now they will come to rape the super to pay for all the damage done
 
divs4ever said:
what if the Covid response was a storm-in-a-teacup and the real crisis was in September 2019 , the economy still hasn't recovered only high-profile winners selected , polished up with media spin and massive cash injections and the backbone of this nation the SMEs may never recover fully this time due to the extra frivolous burdens placed on them while under 'emergency circumstances '

and now they will come to rape the super to pay for all the damage done
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Divs perhaps food for thought or opening up a can of worms
 
sptrawler said:
The covid response fiscally was much greater, therefore the feedback loop from the stimulus would be much greater, yet the response dampening has been very good and a massive overshoot may well not happen.
Click to expand...
Hopefully an overshoot doesn't happen.
The whole covid fiscal response, as we know, has lead to money sloshing around now and reducing the effect of rate rises.

I'm still scratching my head about this month not being a market smacker 0.5% rise.
 
frugal.rock said:
Hopefully an overshoot doesn't happen.
The whole covid fiscal response, as we know, has lead to money sloshing around now and reducing the effect of rate rises.

I'm still scratching my head about this month not being a market smacker 0.5% rise.
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Actually I expected the last rise to be 0.5% rise, I thought it was a perfect time for a sharp sudden hit to stall the economy and maybe then wait a while and see, but hey I'm no expert and I'm not facing the flack.
 
divs4ever said:
what if the Covid response was a storm-in-a-teacup and the real crisis was in September 2019 , the economy still hasn't recovered only high-profile winners selected , polished up with media spin and massive cash injections and the backbone of this nation the SMEs may never recover fully this time due to the extra frivolous burdens placed on them while under 'emergency circumstances '

and now they will come to rape the super to pay for all the damage done
Click to expand...
What if the covid response, was a precursor to see what is required if a pandemic did happen.
What if the covid response was a way to put everyone in their homes and test the sewage, to ascertain where the drug centres are.
What if the covid response was to see what functions could be carried out remotely and what functions failed.
What if the covid response was to ascertain what critical functions would be exposed, in a global shutdown.

Seems to me a lot of data could have been obtained, who knows, all I know is I can only control certain parameters, so I stick to allow for the worst, hope for the best.
 
sptrawler said:
What if the covid response, was a precursor to see what is required if a pandemic did happen.
What if the covid response was a way to put everyone in their homes and test the sewage, to ascertain where the drug centres are.
What if the covid response was to see what functions could be carried out remotely and what functions failed.
What if the covid response was to ascertain what critical functions would be exposed, in a global shutdown.

Seems to me a lot of data could have been obtained, who knows, all I know is I can only control certain parameters, so I stick to allow for the worst, hope for the best.
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but some also revealed their intentions , but the question is did they play all their cards ?

some of my former neighbours would have observed and learned a lot as well
 
sptrawler said:
What if the covid response, was a precursor to see what is required if a pandemic did happen.
What if the covid response was a way to put everyone in their homes and test the sewage, to ascertain where the drug centres are.
What if the covid response was to see what functions could be carried out remotely and what functions failed.
What if the covid response was to ascertain what critical functions would be exposed, in a global shutdown.

Seems to me a lot of data could have been obtained, who knows, all I know is I can only control certain parameters, so I stick to allow for the worst, hope for the best.
Click to expand...
A very long one
I know I pass as a conspiracy theory guy for many:
The COVID scam took 3 years for a majority to wake up but it was an exercise in control:
How people react and are subdue,
How to close borders
how laws are changed..
writting this can now legally send me in jail in qld at the will of the government.
was not the case 3 y ago
Economically ,how to close borders again ,
stop travel and commerce
and close small cross countries business links.the frog's business is gone.
While this has been used by the Reset, it was too good an opportunity to miss for indeed maybe higher aim.
Post the initial understandable scare/panic, the whole set of unjustifiable actions looks indeed like a world wide exercise.
I will also point out that Australia has had the world longest travel ban, still talk about 5th or 6th jab,stricter laws etc...
Was the fact that China was our main trading partner the reason?
Food for thoughts..
For the last 3y, we have been told we are decoupling, bringing business home LoL ,etc
De facto or per design, we got a prep course in WWIII and Ukraine completed this for the EU.
Two political and economic blocks West vs China , Russia and rest of world.
India kind of between 2 seats
I noticed last week US and West now disengaging from Irak and its petrol the irony.. another war for nothing...

so in that context:

Do I think P Lowe was mastering this and leading an evil masterplan?..not at all.he is just a PS doing his job..and is job is to obey his boss.
The US ..our real master...can not afford its debt and the only way out is either a new dollar or hyper inflation.
We could have other options here but I somewhat doubt we will take them so the rate rises are too few too late.
Brazil is not in the same political economic block, so they can decide and act against inflation.
I will also add that Brazilian have seen the ravages of inflation at home and in neighbouring Argentina and Venezuela, whereas our starry eyes Aussies are just looking at house prices always go higher and have never lived a real economic crisis for probably a majority of voters..
->There is no actual will at stopping inflation here so far.
Own inflation on my limited expenses 10 to 20% on all my rates,water,power insurance premiums, and coffee etc for the rest:
food,tools, Bunning trip more like 40 to 50% petrol .well
I am not sure I pay anything less than 10% more than 12m ago. Except if selling my real estate and some shares ?.we are being screwed. At least, I feel I am not in the minority this time?
 
sptrawler said:
So just maybe that extra money being pumped into the economy, caused a buffer that manifested itself in a time delay , as opposed to a third world country that didnt pump in the monetary support.
But hey I may have it completely wrong, I dont have a problem with that.
Probably due to a dumb treasurer, by the way have you ever checked out Frydenberg's background.? Rather than relying on a media assesment.
Click to expand...

I always thought the extra money being pumped in was a time delay. If my memory serves me correctly (probably doesn't) there were some iffy numbers coming out at the time for the economy. I think with COVID and then the no monetary support, would've crushed everything. I do think delaying was the right decision as those two events would've compounded each other.

frugal.rock said:
Timing. That's all I am referring to.

Do you honestly think that the RBA has done such a great job?
(I know we are shooting the messenger here...)

If rates had started ticking up earlier, at a guess, they wouldn't have to go as high and as for long, to do the job intended.

As stated by others, they (RBA) only have one weapon. It wasn't drawn early enough I reckon.
Click to expand...

The RBA probably should have starting ticking up earlier but waited until it was a last effort. Ironically, that is what people are complaining about: not now, maybe later -- its not necessary right now. But little it run further would only make the effects worse later on. Hindsight is 20-20 though. If he had upped the rates earlier people would've cried foul back then. Would've been doom and gloom. I still think that the gov working to keep house prices going up and cheap money being borrowed to fund that was working against the RBA.

sptrawler said:
Absolutely I think the covid and post covid response in fiscal terms, has been nothing short of amazing.
When you look at past historical economic 'disasters', nothing has compared to the complete shutting down of the economic system that happened during covid, yet 12 months on we are but a blimp on the chart of both the asx and the interest rate graph.
When you have worked in process control and with dynamic systems, to actually achieve a response to such huge dynamic and variable inputs, it is nothing short of amazing.
You just have to look back to the GFC, which had minor fiscal impact and yet the market impact resulted in the asx not recovering for 10 years.
The covid response fiscally was much greater, therefore the feedback loop from the stimulus would be much greater, yet the response dampening has been very good and a massive overshoot may well not happen.
So yes ATM I think the RBA has done an incredible job, with a very blunt instrument.
I think most of the whining is coming from over extended media egos that are bleeding from the nose, because of huge mortgages, but I could be wrong, as I often am.
Click to expand...
yes to all of this, particularly the last sentence.

This doesn't feel like the GFC in terms of damage (yet), but it certainly has a similar feel to it. I don't think financially we will be as worse off as we were then. But I also don't know what would happen if the ass end of house prices and defaults go off, what would happen to the economy. Who knows, it could be worse. It seems whenever the general political and economic memory of the populus begins to fade on the horrors of overextended borrowers and cheap money, things go belly-up.

Interestingly (though not surprising) I keep getting articles popping up that are 'things are the worst, housing market is doomed' kinda stories contrasted with 'housing market is great, you should buy. and here is where you should buy'. I even saw an article/post on linkedin with a mortgage broker telling people not to worry about 20%, just get your first home with 5%, it doesn't matter.
 
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