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About zero to nought is my estimate
Philip Lowe's days are numbered?
- Thread starter brerwallabi
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investment properties have their risks as well , when you have greedy , grasping government both short of cash , and trying to appeal to the masses ( who believe government will find the answer to everything ... spoiler alert , the answer is always taxes [ new taxes . 'fairer taxes ' , user-pays taxes , levies , registration fees , etc etc ] )
BTW , IMHO we are already too much like the USA ( especially the bad bits )
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The problem is, governments can just as easily make that scenario very uncomfortable as well.
The QLD govts aborted idea of land tax on any property Queenslanders own other than their primary residence, even outside the state, is a perfect example of what can happen.
Increases in local government rates for any house that is on Airbnb is another that is gaining traction.
Much higher insurance premiums for landlord insurance when it is not a primary residence is another.
I have little trust in Governments, or more precisely the unelected bureacrats who advise tham and carry out policy ideas.
Anyone making decisions or interpreting laws, either local, regional and national, who has no skin in the game is always dangerous.
Mick
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I thought that Aust was the 51st State of US anyway.
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i was under the impression we are more 'a protectorate ' ( like say Puerto Rico or Guam )
the US 'protects us ' because of the US military facilities here
what was that old promise again ' anything but boots ( on the ground ) and nukes '
Push to change Puerto Rico status faces new challenges
A bipartisan group reintroduced a bill for a three-option referendum on Puerto Rico’s political status as a state or an independent nation Thursday, testing the consensus plan’s viability in a new …
thehill.com
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Now that it looks like Phillip Lowe is done and dusted, I wonder who the next media target will be? Jacinta Price is my guess, but they will have to be careful, they will have to be very PC, or convince the public it is o.k to be non PC if the target warrants for it. ?
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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It's okay to be racist against non left wing radicals, apparently.
We've already seen this on this forum.
Sorry, o/t.
brerwallabi
The Oracle
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What did I read before ex ACTU members appointed by Chalmers, so will that create a diversity of views or will it see this socialist government monopolise control over the Reserve in time.
Interesting to see who they appoint after Lowe obviously some left wing bureaucrat.
Interesting to see who they appoint after Lowe obviously some left wing bureaucrat.
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PC was always a weapon to be wielded by the academically impaired
now i am no fan of Phillip , but can he be replaced by a better candidate ( not just a more PC or compliant one )
change for change sake , can be very dangerous in financial matters ( in some other industries as well )
remember Central Banks elsewhere are currently more focused other policies ( climate and digital currencies ) than steadying the national economy , given such a trend , do we boot the RBA ( because it is not doing the task effectively as it is distracted elsewhere )
after all it was found necessary for an extensive review recently
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Ways to spot a dud manager - they're enamoured with the concept of change which in practice turns out to be "do it my way or else" and they have a strong liking for yes men.
Avoid such people. Everything they run ends up turning to crap - and they always blame everyone other than themselves despite such failure being entirely foreseeable and the expected outcome.
If we start doing that with the RBA, watch out......
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And the other saying during R&R "over here, over paid and over sexed !!!!!i was under the impression we are more 'a protectorate ' ( like say Puerto Rico or Guam )
the US 'protects us ' because of the US military facilities here
what was that old promise again ' anything but boots ( on the ground ) and nukes '
Push to change Puerto Rico status faces new challenges
A bipartisan group reintroduced a bill for a three-option referendum on Puerto Rico’s political status as a state or an independent nation Thursday, testing the consensus plan’s viability in a new …
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yes !! something similar was passed on by my ( maternal ) grandmother and the two daughters as they lived unfortunately close to the negro encampment in Brisbane , so much so that 14 year old ( at the time ) mum got sent to Melbourne to avoid the US troops
however it is believed two uncles got involved in the Battle of Brisbane on the way to deployment in PNG ( unlike the US troops in that area )
seems the locals fresh from the Egypt adventure were not impressed by the US efforts to defend MacArthur and the rest of Brisbane
( research the Brisbane Line , if you dare )
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So will the bank managers be blamed and calls for them to be sacked, for saying that house prices had further to fall and now buyers have missed out and sellers wished they hadn't? ?
So did Lowe do a good job? For a soft landing, obviously yes, for fixing the property bubble? Well that isn't his job.
For being the scapegoat and a media target, well they certainly nailed him to the wall, that's what they are good at. ?
www.smh.com.au
If backpedalling was an Olympic sport, the Australian economists team would be a contender for the gold medal. About that 15 per cent to 20 per cent peak-to-trough house price slump they were predicting? Ahem – prices are now on their way up.
The Commonwealth Bank, which now expects home prices to rise by 3 per cent in 2023 and forecasts a further increase of 5 per cent in 2024, notes in its mea culpa: “We did not pick the turning point in this cycle as we expected prices to continue to trend lower until the third quarter of 2023. It is fair to say that we were not alone in expecting dwelling prices to fall a little further in 2023.”
Westpac, which had been forecasting house prices to fall 8 per cent this year, has recast its expectations for a 1 per cent gain, while the National Australia Bank still sees the market falling this year by about 4 per cent for a peak-to-trough decline of about12 per cent. Previously, NAB expected this decline to be 20 per cent.
AMP veteran economist Shane Oliver has also needed to tinker with his model in the wake of another rise in home values. “We have revised up our property price forecasts to flat to up slightly for this year, with a 5 per cent rise next year.
However, the risk of another down leg in prices is high as interest rate hikes continue to impact.”
Thus the housing cycle this time around was very sharp and very short.
So did Lowe do a good job? For a soft landing, obviously yes, for fixing the property bubble? Well that isn't his job.
For being the scapegoat and a media target, well they certainly nailed him to the wall, that's what they are good at. ?
Why the house price recovery broke the rule book
Oops – after the second successive monthly improvement in house values in April, there was little room for economists but to start eating crow.
If backpedalling was an Olympic sport, the Australian economists team would be a contender for the gold medal. About that 15 per cent to 20 per cent peak-to-trough house price slump they were predicting? Ahem – prices are now on their way up.
The Commonwealth Bank, which now expects home prices to rise by 3 per cent in 2023 and forecasts a further increase of 5 per cent in 2024, notes in its mea culpa: “We did not pick the turning point in this cycle as we expected prices to continue to trend lower until the third quarter of 2023. It is fair to say that we were not alone in expecting dwelling prices to fall a little further in 2023.”
Westpac, which had been forecasting house prices to fall 8 per cent this year, has recast its expectations for a 1 per cent gain, while the National Australia Bank still sees the market falling this year by about 4 per cent for a peak-to-trough decline of about12 per cent. Previously, NAB expected this decline to be 20 per cent.
AMP veteran economist Shane Oliver has also needed to tinker with his model in the wake of another rise in home values. “We have revised up our property price forecasts to flat to up slightly for this year, with a 5 per cent rise next year.
However, the risk of another down leg in prices is high as interest rate hikes continue to impact.”
Thus the housing cycle this time around was very sharp and very short.
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So will the bank managers be blamed and calls for them to be sacked, for saying that house prices had further to fall and now buyers have missed out and sellers wished they hadn't? ?
So did Lowe do a good job? For a soft landing, obviously yes, for fixing the property bubble? Well that isn't his job.
For being the scapegoat and a media target, well they certainly nailed him to the wall, that's what they are good at. ?
Why the house price recovery broke the rule book
Oops – after the second successive monthly improvement in house values in April, there was little room for economists but to start eating crow.
If backpedalling was an Olympic sport, the Australian economists team would be a contender for the gold medal. About that 15 per cent to 20 per cent peak-to-trough house price slump they were predicting? Ahem – prices are now on their way up.
The Commonwealth Bank, which now expects home prices to rise by 3 per cent in 2023 and forecasts a further increase of 5 per cent in 2024, notes in its mea culpa: “We did not pick the turning point in this cycle as we expected prices to continue to trend lower until the third quarter of 2023. It is fair to say that we were not alone in expecting dwelling prices to fall a little further in 2023.”
Westpac, which had been forecasting house prices to fall 8 per cent this year, has recast its expectations for a 1 per cent gain, while the National Australia Bank still sees the market falling this year by about 4 per cent for a peak-to-trough decline of about12 per cent. Previously, NAB expected this decline to be 20 per cent.
AMP veteran economist Shane Oliver has also needed to tinker with his model in the wake of another rise in home values. “We have revised up our property price forecasts to flat to up slightly for this year, with a 5 per cent rise next year.
However, the risk of another down leg in prices is high as interest rate hikes continue to impact.”
Thus the housing cycle this time around was very sharp and very short.
I'm still undecided about this. I think we're stuck in the 'fog of war' and just can't see what's coming next so we're clinging to anything that feeds a narrative.
We've got bank failures and interest rates that are likely to stay high for a while. RBA is cognizant of the immigration influx and the impact it will have on inflation, so I presume that they would also be standing ready to react to any future inflation and hike as needed. Not sure how that sounds like a recipe for a property boom.
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Agree with you 100%, but it does show how the media have to make a story last as long as possible, with the 24/7 news cycle.
It is getting to the point where they are just about betting on flies climbing a wall, the problem is many people hang off their every word, is there any wonder mental health is a huge issue in Australia.
There are so many variables, no one knows where interest rates are going, from memory the long term average was around 5-7%.
So why people are expecting them to be lower is strange, the overshoot may be less than normal due to better data collection systems available these days, but I would still expect a return to long term trend all things been equal.
When that happens is anyone's guess, if the Russians give up on Ukraine, if China and the U.S come to a trade agreement, if the immigration numbers don't eventuate, who knows.
Good way to put it mate. None of it is making much sense. Definitely a 'fog of war' feeling.
you're right about the how strange it is that ppl expect rates to be lower than the long-term average. the fact that house prices haven't really dropped worries me more than anything. they're so high compared to the average wage that it doesn't seem sustainable. eventually the shoe will drop.
In my experience, OZ housing prices stagnate rather than drop, there is usually a bit of a hangover from people who have been trying to buy but get beaten at crazy auctions.
They will buy when the frenzy cools but then usually we get a year or two when not much happens BUT we now have a Govt that is bringing in 400k more people THIS year
No wonder housing prices don't drop
Good point, mate.In my experience, OZ housing prices stagnate rather than drop, there is usually a bit of a hangover from people who have been trying to buy but get beaten at crazy auctions.
No wonder housing prices don't drop
And I don't expect prices to drop any time soon. At least not in a meaningful way. Only way I see it is if there's mass defaults (and no buyers).
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prices will drop when ( desperate ) sellers out-number credit-worthy buyers ( and those cash buyers run low on the readies )
what i am still watching for is , the number of properties actually being sold ( completed ) , not just contracts signed
just settled on a property where the three previous contracts fell over , and the banks i approached were very cool ( which may be a good thing in the long run ) so among the assets liquidated included a selection of bank stocks
( and ETFs with a XFJ focus )Will I guess that's where I find things a little surprising and unsure where it will go. I thought there'd be more desperate sellers out there, or we'd be close to it. I think if Lowe had paused the raise, people would have been emboldened to spend more and leverage highly (i.e. with the new gov announcement of loan guarantor for 15%). Raising the rate was probably smart as things don't really looked like they've cooled, nor have the underlining issues driving up inflation ceased. Realise that's an unpopular opinion with many people out there (mate at work wasn't happy to see it up again .... ).prices will drop when ( desperate ) sellers out-number credit-worthy buyers ( and those cash buyers run low on the readies )
what i am still watching for is , the number of properties actually being sold ( completed ) , not just contracts signed
just settled on a property where the three previous contracts fell over , and the banks i approached were very cool ( which may be a good thing in the long run ) so among the assets liquidated included a selection of bank stocks