Perhaps we'll ride out this correction/crash/bear/recession/depression?

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

XAO comforably holding on to gains above the 200d ma and finding support. World markets recovering well and ignoring some short term noise from a few poorly managed entities, suffering from bad lending practices in a minor part of world financial markets. The ASX gained (including financials) even after the fallout from one bank in the UK to push above significant resistance. US talking more and more of recovery instead of death and destruction....

Paulson: Turmoil to Persist But Economy Strong
By Reuters | 14 Sep 2007 | 12:09 PM ET

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday that it will take time to work through the problems contributing to current financial market turmoil but expressed confidence U.S. growth will not be derailed.

"I feel very confident that this economy is going to continue to grow," Paulson said in an interview with CNBC. "Inflation is contained and that is obviously the key to extending an economic expansion."

The U.S. Treasury secretary was spending a day in Chicago speaking to business people before heading for France and Britain to meet finance ministers there in Monday.

He drew a distinction between the current period of turmoil, which stems from problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage sector, and past ones like the Asian currency crises of the late 1990s when much of the global economy was in distress.

"A number of these periods of turbulence in the past were precipitated by problems in the real economy and that's the differentiating factor here," he said.

One of the banks most likely to suffer from sub prime posts record earnings and gains 2% after the aformentioned UK blip.

Macquarie heads for $1bn half
Marc Moncrief
September 15, 2007

JUST six months after booking its first billion-dollar full-year profit, Australia's largest investment bank is set to turn in its first billion-dollar half-year.

In a briefing to analysts yesterday morning, Macquarie Bank chief executive Allan Moss said he expected net profit for the six months to September 30 to be "up strongly" on the $730 million booked in last year's first half. The shares jumped by more than 2 per cent in morning trade.

Shares don't just jump because of previous results but factor in potential future earnings, as we know.

Doesn't seem to be ALL bad news to me......

No apocalypse from this angle. he, he,

:couch

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

XAO comforably holding on to gains above the 200d ma and finding support. World markets recovering well and ignoring some short term noise from a few poorly managed entities, suffering from bad lending practices in a minor part of world financial markets. The ASX gained (including financials) even after the fallout from one bank in the UK to push above significant resistance. US talking more and more of recovery instead of death and destruction....

Don't get too excited,

markets have a habit turning very quickly when things start turning rosy.
My take is that it's good opportunity to unload, not stock up.

 

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Don't get too excited,

markets have a habit turning very quickly when things start turning rosy.
My take is that it's good opportunity to unload, not stock up.

I agree.

But I don't necessarily see the four horseman approaching at this minute...

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Who needs the four horsemen when youve got the Receiver, the Liquidator , the Lawyer and the undertaker

 

[son of baglimit]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

ride out this correction ? - no way - i was holding too many duds being propped up by the stupidly faint possibility of takeover etc - thankfully got out / getting out of nearly all - except NMS of course.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

I agree.

But I don't necessarily see the four horseman approaching at this minute...

your right, but then again I am biased I am a bear!!

 

[dhukka]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

World markets recovering well and ignoring some short term noise from a few poorly managed entities, suffering from bad lending practices in a minor part of world financial markets.

I always find your posts amusing in their naivety. Short-term noise, hilarious. A few poorly managed entities, what you mean like the 156 mortgage companies that have gone under in the last year? I had feeling that Northern Rock operated in a rather large and important financial market.

I didn't know Goldman Sachs was a poorly run entity operating in a minor part of world financial markets or Merrill Lynch for that matter.

The ASX gained (including financials) even after the fallout from one bank in the UK to push above significant resistance. US talking more and more of recovery instead of death and destruction....

This is the funniest bit, quoting that utter moron Paulson. This is the same guy that said sub-prime is contained and will not spill over to the rest of the economy. The same guy that said 6 months ago housing had bottomed. It's amazing the guy still has a job.

One of the banks most likely to suffer from sub prime posts record earnings and gains 2% after the aformentioned UK blip. Shares don't just jump because of previous results but factor in potential future earnings, as we know.

Why is Macquarie one of the banks most likely to suffer from the sub-prime crisis? Once again much more hope than anything approaching rational analysis in your post.

 

[reece55]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

I always find your posts amusing in their naivety. Short-term noise, hilarious. A few poorly managed entities, what you mean like the 156 mortgage companies that have gone under in the last year? I had feeling that Northern Rock operated in a rather large and important financial market.

I didn't know Goldman Sachs was a poorly run entity operating in a minor part of world financial markets or Merrill Lynch for that matter.



This is the funniest bit, quoting that utter moron Paulson. This is the same guy that said sub-prime is contained and will not spill over to the rest of the economy. The same guy that said 6 months ago housing had bottomed. It's amazing the guy still has a job.




Why is Macquarie one of the banks most likely to suffer from the sub-prime crisis? Once again much more hope than anything approaching rational analysis in your post.

Come on Dhukka, there's no need to be quite so nasty here, don't you think?

Kennas is entitled to his opinion, regardless of whether you believe it is "naive". It's much better IMO to objectively put forth the arguments that you believe contradict his view, rather than insulting him.

To quote someone else (I think ASX.G), play the ball not the person!

Cheers

 

[Mofra]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Why is Macquarie one of the banks most likely to suffer from the sub-prime crisis? Once again much more hope than anything approaching rational analysis in your post.

The same Macquarie that has raised over $8.6b this year in capital, has no subprime loans (on its books) in any mortgage operations, and unlike most major banks does not write loss-leading loans for cross sale opportunities?

Regardless, you'd have to expect sector sentiment will spread across every financial institution listed on the ASX once the US subprime reset rates peak in Oct & Nov 07. Even deposit holding organisations have to securitise a portion of their loan books, and CDOs are not a ticket to cheap cash anymore.

 

[dhukka]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Come on Dhukka, there's no need to be quite so nasty here, don't you think?

Kennas is entitled to his opinion, regardless of whether you believe it is "naive". It's much better IMO to objectively put forth the arguments that you believe contradict his view, rather than insulting him.

To quote someone else (I think ASX.G), play the ball not the person!

Cheers

Reece,

Of course kennas is entitled to his opinion, am I not entitled to mine? I believe that some of his comments demonstrate naivety and I try provide evidence of why I believe that to be the case, simple

 

[dhukka]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

The same Macquarie that has raised over $8.6b this year in capital, has no subprime loans (on its books) in any mortgage operations, and unlike most major banks does not write loss-leading loans for cross sale opportunities?

Regardless, you'd have to expect sector sentiment will spread across every financial institution listed on the ASX once the US subprime reset rates peak in Oct & Nov 07. Even deposit holding organisations have to securitise a portion of their loan books, and CDOs are not a ticket to cheap cash anymore.

Absolutely all financials will get tainted with the sub-prime brush to some degree. I don't see why Macquarie is one of the banks most likely to be affected.

Remember also that MBL's financial year ends in March so 1H08 ends Sep 30 2007. This is not forward looking. Of more interest will be commentary on how they see the second half of FY08 panning out.

 

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

I always find your posts amusing in their naivety.

I enjoy all your posts dhukka. Keep up the good work. Cheers. :dunno:

I need a fishing smilie to add here.

 

[dhukka]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

I enjoy all your posts dhukka. Keep up the good work. Cheers. :dunno:

I need a fishing smilie to add here.

Kennas,

I didn't mean to imply that I found all your posts naive, far from it, just on this particular subject.

 

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Kennas,

I didn't mean to imply that I found all your posts naive, far from it, just on this particular subject.

I'm obviously not working this thread very well. Some of my comments are obviously serious while others are done with half tongue in cheak designed to drag a bear out of cave. The line I draw between sarcasm and sincerity was obviously too blurred on this occasion. My sence of humour is losing itself. Apologies.

 

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Correction over? Already!? What the?

The most bullish might not have thought we'd recover this quick. XAO at all time highs and DJI a few points away....

All the systemic problems in the US are still there....aren't they?

I guess we'll just have to wait for the real crash a bit longer.

Crazy beast this market.

RBA, resources push shares to record high
Scott Murdoch | September 25, 2007

IT has taken exactly two months for investors to cast aside fears over the global credit crisis and drive Australia's stock market into record territory.

Fittingly, it was resources stocks that helped the share market beat its previous record set on July 24, three days before the start of the global rout that eventually wiped 12 per cent off the value of equities.

The recovery of equities, while credit conditions remain tight, has surprised analysts who described yesterday's 1.45 per cent gain as "amazing".

Sorry, no politician quotes

 

[wayneL]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Correction over? Already!? What the?

The most bullish might not have thought we'd recover this quick. XAO at all time highs and DJI a few points away....

All the systemic problems in the US are still there....aren't they?

I guess we'll just have to wait for the real crash a bit longer.

Crazy beast this market.



Sorry, no politician quotes

There is a belief here that Oz (and China) will not be affected by recession in USA and Europe. A bloke I spoke to today was "the first" I've spoken to that acknowledges the possibility of a downturn. (An old timer in mining/engineering that has seen this all before)

But that is the sentiment... bullish.

 

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

There is a belief here that Oz (and China) will not be affected by recession in USA and Europe. A bloke I spoke to today was "the first" I've spoken to that acknowledges the possibility of a downturn. (An old timer in mining/engineering that has seen this all before)

But that is the sentiment... bullish.

Resources may have something to do with it. BHP and RIO are probably to blame for most of yesty's gains. I wonder how much longer the key commods can keep going up to support them?

Commodity exports to soar to $145bn
September 24, 2007

THE Federal Government's chief resources forecaster has predicted a 4 per cent jump in commodity export earnings to $144.7 billion.

The Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) today delivered a healthy forecast across all export commodities.

"Australian commodity export earnings are forecast to increase by 4 per cent to $144.7 billion in 2007-08," ABARE's report said.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

There is a belief here that Oz (and China) will not be affected by recession in USA and Europe. A bloke I spoke to today was "the first" I've spoken to that acknowledges the possibility of a downturn. (An old timer in mining/engineering that has seen this all before)

But that is the sentiment... bullish.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water......(Jaws music....) keep an eye on the Shanghai Composite?

 

[Sean K]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water......(Jaws music....) keep an eye on the Shanghai Composite?

It's gotta pop sooner or later. Might be the next excuse for another correction, or the true bear. I don't think it will take much for punters to take their $$ back off the table.

 

[dhukka]

Re: Perhaps we'll ride out this correction?

There is a belief here that Oz (and China) will not be affected by recession in USA and Europe. A bloke I spoke to today was "the first" I've spoken to that acknowledges the possibility of a downturn. (An old timer in mining/engineering that has seen this all before)

But that is the sentiment... bullish.

We're hearing this concept of de-coupling more and more often. While the argument in principle seems sound, I think the US still plays too much of a role in the world for integrated economies to fully de-couple themselves.

Europe is going to get hit hardest by a weakening US dollar. USA recession looks likely, Europe a possibility, if both go it's tough to see anyone getting out unscathed.