PEN - Peninsula Energy

hangseng · 1 August 2011

Some may and some may not find this interesting...

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/21601-fundamentals-in-place-for-uranium-bull.html

As investors we need to be selective in the stocks we choose. There aren’t many producers to choose from, emerging producers are few and far between, and explorers with a combination of high-potential deposits and managerial know-how to drive development are even more rare. But if you do find these stocks, huge gains are likely to be had. And considering the carnage in this sector from the events earlier this year, it is currently a bargain-hunter’s paradise.

The bottom line is uranium’s bull market has so far exhibited a series of extreme highs and lows, with the highs taking this mineral on an uptrend that has delivered spectacular gains. And while the recent tragic events at Fukushima have temporarily marred the nuclear industry, and thus uranium prices, nuclear power will still be a vital source of today’s and tomorrow’s energy needs.

As a result folks must not lose sight of uranium’s wildly-bullish fundamentals. Even with the Fukushima effect, demand is expected to grow at a rapid pace. And because supply from both the mining and stockpile fronts is expected to struggle to meet this demand, uranium prices should continue to rise. Investors can play this imbalance by buying quality stocks that are currently out of favour. Contrarian plays like this typically lead to huge gains.

Time only will tell who was right and who was wrong.

Karlos68 · 1 August 2011

Chalea said:
You'll soon see that it's "A very very very" good call though...:bananasmi

I appreciate your enthusiasm and time spent commenting on PEN. Seems your charting skills paint a very bearish picture for PEN.
I feel my T/A skills are average. However I would like to point out that the most leading indicator of a trend change that I have learnt from a master of T/A is OBV. So I am baffled as to why you have omitted this indicator from your charts
If you take a look at this indicator you will note the downtrend line touching the lower highs broke a few weeks back.
Low point on chart is early/mid June and higher low in mid July. Trendline is gently heading upwards.
You appear to have found negative indicators, I have found positive indicators........Check out which way OBV has been trending for last five years

Chalea · 1 August 2011

Karlos68 said:
I would like to point out that the most leading indicator of a trend change that I have learnt from a master of T/A is OBV.
Check out which way OBV has been trending for last five years

Did your "master of T/A" point out that a rising trend is a series of higher peaks & higher troughs?

And that a lower trough is a sell signal?

Like the one given last week?

PS - Note OBV's current value - Three point two thousand million...Number ring a bell?

tech/a · 1 August 2011

OBV misses a very important component in it's calculation
Both Wykoff and Williams knew and know what it is.
To my knowledge an oscillator has never been designed around the missing components.

Karlos68 · 1 August 2011

Chalea said:
Did your "master of T/A" point out that a rising trend is a series of higher peaks & higher troughs?

And that a lower trough is a sell signal?

Like the one given last week?

PS - Note OBV's current value - Three point two thousand million...Number ring a bell?

Daily OBV is which I am making reference to an uptrend.
Your Monthly indicator paints a different picture. Would the Monthly be disrupted due to Fukushima?

tech/a.. I understand OBV should be used in conjunction with other indicators.

Chalea · 2 August 2011

Karlos68 said:
Daily OBV is which I am making reference to an uptrend.

The 'Big Picture' monthly OBV had been in a 5 year uptrend...until last week...

PEN's fully diluted shares will keep trending higher though!

Five hundred million five years ago - three point two thousand million now...

Maybe we will see a ten bagger soon...though not in the way many had hoped and dreamt publicly about...

tech/a · 2 August 2011

So as an indicator it's pretty useless.
In the case of PEN a trend change wasn't seen until the other day!
Using Monthly OBV
That's handy.

The accusation that you select analysis---any analysis---to support your view
Is warranted from what I see.

Personally you can dissect PEN fundamentally and Technically
But the bottom line is this stock is firmly stuck in a range and regardless what analysis you or anyone---try to make " Fit" it isn't going anywhere.

Karlos68 · 2 August 2011

Chalea said:
The 'Big Picture' monthly OBV had been in a 5 year uptrend...until last week...

So
I will safely assume you are not suggesting this to be a valid exit point. Clearly an attempt to sling mud at PEN to justify your argument.

My simplistic reasoning using daily OBV to validate a single indicator is:
Check the downtrend line on lower highs last year, around mid year it broke.....good entry
Check the uptrend line on higher lows to early this year, broke before Fukushima.....good exit
Check the downtrend line on lower highs that recently broke.......good entry? Time will tell

Your use of monthly OBV to discredit PEN has removed any confidence to myself that your contributions provide valid reasoning of a potential heavy downtrend occuring.

tech/a....Thank you for your efforts. I appreciate you view is PEN will range. I noted after the downtrend broke last year that the SP appeared to meander for some time before the strong uptrend took hold due to an increasing Spot Price of U.

tech/a · 2 August 2011

Karlos

Cause and effect.
We will all see it in time enough.
Just as we are seeing "it" ( cause and effect) now.

Chalea · 2 August 2011

Karlos68 said:
So
I will safely assume you are not suggesting this to be a valid exit point.
My simplistic reasoning...

Never assume anything, (like the DFS being released 2 months ago lol).

Why on earth would you choose a daily time frame over a 5 year period?

As much use as a one year hourly chart...:headshake

Chalea · 2 August 2011

hangseng said:
"As a result folks must not lose sight of uranium’s wildly-bullish fundamentals. Even with the Fukushima effect, demand is expected to grow at a rapid pace."

Folks must not lose sight of nuclear power's wildly rising costs...

"Further delays and cost overruns at new generation nuclear plants being developed in Europe by French companies have also raised questions about the cost factor, particularly with the extra safety measures that would appear to be an inevitable consequence of the Fukushima incident. EDF said the new generation European pressurised reactor (EPR) at Flamanville, in north-western France, has been further delayed and is now expected to open in 2016 (rather than 2014), and its budget has now jumped out to â‚¬6 billion ($8 billion). It was originally to be built by 2012 at a cost of â‚¬3.3 billion.

Another French company, Areva, is experiencing similar problems at its EPR plant in Finland. EDF has blamed “structural and economic” problems, noting that a nuclear plant has not been built in France for 15 years. It’s a similar problem in the US, where even nuclear technology suppliers such as GE say it is impossible to estimate the cost of nuclear reactors because none have been built for more than two decades.

A plan unveiled in 2007 to build two nuclear plants in San Antonio using reactors provided by Toshiba was effectively abandoned three years later after the prospective cost ballooned from an estimated $US5.8 billion to $US22 billion. The Obama administration has said it would release $58 billion in loan guarantees to help a new fleet of nuclear reactors to be built, but there are questions about whether this would be anywhere near sufficient."

Link

"rapid pace"...:crap:

Karlos68 · 2 August 2011

Chalea said:
Never assume anything, (like the DFS being released 2 months ago lol).

Why on earth would you choose a daily time frame over a 5 year period?

So you wish to raise the issue of the DFS ChaleaI note a slight sarcastic giggle
I never assumed an imminent release. May I suggest you venture to a known stomping ground you have previously ruffled the feathers of.........namely Hot Copper. PEN thread has a "DFS release comp" currently running. Should you care to enter, you may find yours truely is a super hot favourite. However, due to new info, I do feel the DFS will now arrive at a sooner date

In regards to your comment on choosing the daily on 5 year OBV.......It was not a choice but merely an observation on the overall direction of PEN.

PS I have deep fears Chalea for your half glass empty approach to fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN. I hope my contributions provide as aspect of which you may have previously overseen. All the best and may God bless your soul.

Chalea · 2 August 2011

Karlos68 said:
However, due to new info, I do feel the DFS will now arrive at a sooner date

In regards to your comment on choosing the daily on 5 year OBV.......It was not a choice but merely an observation on the overall direction of PEN.

PS I have deep fears Chalea for your half glass empty approach to fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN.

Please don't imply that you have "new info". Whatever it is is either a baseless rumour/ramp or illegal insider information. This site is far better than that!

I'll give you "an observation on the overall direction of PEN."

Check the Monthly MACD. Tell me, as a God fearing PEN 'believer', do you think that the MACD line is about to cross down through it's signal line providing a very long term sell signal?

That's the second one in two nights... Has your "Master of T/A" pointed that one out?

May I also point out that long term support can be found on the lowest blue line @ 1c...

As mentioned previously, the only part of your "fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN" that is growing is the amount of it's full diluted shares...

3,200,000,000...:bad:

Chalea · 3 August 2011

Chalea said:
The hourly chart shows a bearish rectangle pattern.
Approximate Target = 7.1 - ( 7.7 - 7.1 ) = 6.5c corn:

Well the bearish rectangle needed to test the moving average resistance before hitting 6.5c on the nose.

Couple of days later than expected but at least it's not two months!

Tick, tick, tick...

Gap @ 7.0c should give the swing traders who buy in the low 6s something to aim at.

corn:

tech/a · 3 August 2011

Well the bearish rectangle needed to test the moving average resistance before hitting 6.5c on the nose

Remarkable.

Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle pattern?

OR

Are all of these ideas your theories or perhaps your adaptations of conventional technical analysis,which you are seeking recognition through forums.

Its been asked before but you avoided the question.

Do you actually trade??

I and others ask because for me discussing analysis with someone who hasnt advanced past theory is a waste of bandwidth---if---like you they are convinced they are actually using technical analysis.

If you can prove through evidence you do trade then happy to continue to discuss.
If not then I and Im sure others will place you on ignore.

In my opinion (and Im allowed an opinion just as you are---you keep showing it!) This analysis is plain rubbish.

Chalea · 3 August 2011

tech/a said:
Remarkable.

Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle pattern?

OR

Are all of these ideas your theories or perhaps your adaptations of conventional technical analysis,which you are seeking recognition through forums.

Its been asked before but you avoided the question.

Do you actually trade??

I and others ask because for me discussing analysis with someone who hasnt advanced past theory is a waste of bandwidth---if---like you they are convinced they are actually using technical analysis.

If you can prove through evidence you do trade then happy to continue to discuss.
If not then I and Im sure others will place you on ignore.

In my opinion (and Im allowed an opinion just as you are---you keep showing it!) This analysis is plain rubbish.

I have nothing to prove or discuss with you!

Ciao...

tech/a · 3 August 2011

Ignore it is then.
Thanks.

againsthegrain · 3 August 2011

Could of picked any stock today and went see its in the red told you so, genius!

Chalea · 3 August 2011

againsthegrain said:
Could of picked any stock today and went see its in the red told you so, genius!

Or you could have read my post on Sunday!

Thank you for the complement...

PS. Have you seen my bearish rising wedge target?

againsthegrain · 3 August 2011

Just saw some cut and paste from what looked like a cheap tutorial found on google

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