PEN - Peninsula Energy

[Chalea]

Just saw some cut and paste from what looked like a cheap tutorial found on google

I don't attempt to blind readers with TA/FA mumbo jumbo...

KISS!!!

 

[Karlos68]

Please don't imply that you have "new info". Whatever it is is either a baseless rumour/ramp or illegal insider information. This site is far better than that!

OK Senior Sargeant Chalea, before you lose your mind and unleash a few rounds of liquid from your water pistol at my forehead, how about place the piece back in your holster.

The "new info" is readily available for all to see on the recent announcement. It is in regard to the Nucore $15 Mill. The addition being "7.5 min to 9.5 cent max" plus 50% placement. Considering the SP has been trading in this region, I would therefore assume a sooner than later completion and arrival of the DFS. Hence the reason for an instinctive change of view.


Hmmmmmmm....So you wish to question my long term view. Sorry, I dont have time to lecture Officers of the Law.:

I do note the daily OBV is now touching the uptrend line. Shall be interesting to see if it bounces from this line.

I wont hold you up any longer Officer Chalea, as I expect the mean streets of ASF await some justice to be served

 

[Chalea]

The "new info" is readily available for all to see on the recent announcement. It is in regard to the Nucore $15 Mill. The addition being "7.5 min to 9.5 cent max" plus 50% placement. Considering the SP has been trading in this region, I would therefore assume a sooner than later completion and arrival of the DFS. Hence the reason for an instinctive change of view.

I alluded to this on the weekend.

Could you tell me if the NuCore due diligence has a 'poor market conditions' get out clause?

'Poor market conditions' = PEN's SP and uranium both falling in value.

Why else would BHP be delaying Olympic Dam and Areva be saying €700 million ($1.0 billion) in orders "present a risk of cancellation or renegotiation"?

 

[Karlos68]

Could you tell me if the NuCore due diligence has a 'poor market conditions' get out clause?

Due to some very new recent information I have just viewed from the boss, I understand that the answer is "No, they are in for the long haul". I hope this assists with your investigation Officer Chalea

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Did your "master of T/A" point out that a rising trend is a series of higher peaks & higher troughs?

And that a lower trough is a sell signal?

Like the one given last week?

PS - Note OBV's current value - Three point two thousand million...Number ring a bell?

The following is a quote from an ATAA article I have stored in my portmanteau. It is not for your information Chalea, rather for the uninitiated who may be beguiled by your cut and paste approach to Technical Analysis of stocks.

Indicators Are Not Systems
Chuck LeBeau
One of the popular topics often discussed on trading forums and web sites is the relative value of various technical indicators. For example someone might ask: "Which is better, MACD or Bollinger Bands?" Or simply: "Which is more profitable: ADX or CCI?"
The implication of these questions is that indicators are being confused with trading systems. It is important to understand that technical indicators are best thought of as being merely small parts of a system and not systems in and of themselves. A typical comment like: "I tried Indicator X and found it was worthless." makes no sense at all. Or, "I tried ADX and found that it was excellent." These statements imply that an indicator was tested as though it were a system.
Rather than saying a specific indicator is good or bad, we should hold the view that indicators are tools for solving specific trading related problems. For example, one indicator may be an excellent way to solve a particular problem, but the same indicator can be of no value in solving a different problem. The value of any indicator depends on its application. As system developers we must avoid sweeping judgmental evaluations that might conclude that indicator A is better than indicator B. Our task is to learn which indicators can best solve particular problems, and make certain that we apply whatever indicator is appropriate for the task at hand.
Every indicator has its strengths and weaknesses depending on how it is applied. For example, we have found that moving averages are poor entry triggers but excellent directional indicators. The fact that the five-day moving average is above the twenty day moving average may be a reliable indication that the trend is up, but it doesn't mean that we want to buy immediately. On the other hand an upward range expansion might be an excellent entry trigger, but have no value in telling us the direction of the underlying trend. If we combine these indicators so that we go long in a market where the five-day moving average is above the twenty-day moving average immediately upon an upward range expansion, then we are getting into the construction of a viable system. However if we bought or sold every range expansion or 5/20 moving average crossover we would quickly conclude that these indicators had no value.

Remarkable.

Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle pattern?

OR

Are all of these ideas your theories or perhaps your adaptations of conventional technical analysis,which you are seeking recognition through forums.

Its been asked before but you avoided the question.

Do you actually trade??

I and others ask because for me discussing analysis with someone who hasnt advanced past theory is a waste of bandwidth---if---like you they are convinced they are actually using technical analysis.

If you can prove through evidence you do trade then happy to continue to discuss.
If not then I and Im sure others will place you on ignore.

In my opinion (and Im allowed an opinion just as you are---you keep showing it!) This analysis is plain rubbish.

A moot point. Price trends, indicators INDICATE. And a rectangle is a rectangle. Simple.

I have nothing to prove or discuss with you!

Ciao...

Agree, Chalea, you resemble a midget unable to reach the top shelf, but well able to jump halfway.
Apologies to any midgets reading this, particularly those with a knowledge of Technical Analysis.

PEN is down, and looks down, and I and my portfolio are glad we follow ASF and not ColdCrims.com
They all now blame a guy called Gus, in Peninsula Energy, who last week they said could walk on water. Sic transit gloria peninsulae.

Such is life.


gg

 

[Chalea]

Due to some very new recent information I have just viewed from the boss, I understand that the answer is "No, they are in for the long haul".

Are you an employee of PEN?

How can NuCore be 'in' if they haven't handed over the $15m?

 

[Karlos68]

Are you an employee of PEN?

How can NuCore be 'in' if they haven't handed over the $15m?

I am not an employee of PEN. I hail from the good city of Hamilton in NZ. Home of the Aussie V8 Supercars round

Go visit Hot Copper Chalea, I urge you. Cheap Charlie has just received an email from Gus regarding the concerns of some frail holders of PEN in relation to the worry you have also raised.

 

[tech/a]

GG

A moot point. Price trends, indicators INDICATE. And a rectangle is a rectangle. Simple.

I disagree my statement hasn't been debated so is hardly moot.

Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle pattern?

Price trends due to imbalance in supply or demand over a prolonged period.

Indicators do indicate but an M/A isn't an indicator. Its an average of a data set.

While a rectangle maybe a rectangle its use in technical analysis is identification of a prolonged support and resistance zone which has been honored by price---indicating an area of congestion.

The high and low of a few bars at the same price hardly qualifies for an area of congestion let alone prolonged congestion.

As a Chartist and Technical analyst who has completed 10000 hrs many times over it pains me to see such rubbish being offered up as serious analysis. I use it in discretionary trading and have proven that systems trading can be very profitable--- with Tech Trader running live for 7 yrs. and still available for public view.

I spend a great deal of time on this forum demonstrating serious analysis and help to those who wish to become serious students of what I believe to be an ART.
A very profitable one to those who look past the 90% you dont need to know!

Rubbish cheapens the practice and if I see rubbish I will challenge it.
As Far as PEN is concerned the Analysis is pretty rudimentary and not likely to change in the shorter term.

 

[Chalea]

Go visit Hot Copper Chalea, I urge you. Cheap Charlie has just received an email from Gus regarding the concerns of some frail holders of PEN in relation to the worry you have also raised.

I urge you to DYOR and not accept anything that is spruiked on HotCopper.

I urge you to contact HotCopper's administration to compare the content and IP addresses of these three posts -

'cheapcharlie', (last year), to the suspended 'saylor' and the suspended 'budgiesmuggler'.


If, (and it's yet to be proved/disproved), it's the same poster, are you still confident in the veracity of the email?

Check my signature...

 

[Joe Blow]

I do not wish to see anything that is posted on HotCopper reproduced on ASF, and this includes paraphrasing anything that is posted there.

Nor do I wish to see links to, or any further discussion of, HotCopper. What happens over there, stays over there.

Now, back on topic.

 

[explod]

GG

I spend a great deal of time on this forum demonstrating serious analysis and help to those who wish to become serious students of what I believe to be an ART.
A very profitable one to those who look past the 90% you dont need to know!

Rubbish cheapens the practice and if I see rubbish I will challenge it.
As Far as PEN is concerned the Analysis is pretty rudimentary and not likely to change in the shorter term.

A good post tech. Many of us codgers do not say much but as a fairly long standing member of ASF I would like at this point to say how much your efforts are appreciated. You are one of those that makes ASF the good communiy it is.

I do have a good idea of t/a and urge posters to read back over Tech's work if you are new to this field. This approach to investing is essential learning if you are serious about gaining a good financial education.

Explod

 

[Chalea]

The green chart lines give an approximate SP target of 5c

Here is an alternate method to measuring the bearish rising wedge's target for those unconvinced by my simple method -

Measure from the lowest trough, (5.9), to the highest peak, (8.3)

The targeted move is 8.3 - 5.9 = 2.4c

The move is projected down from the breakout point at 7.6c, (28/07/11).

The target is calculated by subtracting the move from the value at the point of breakout:

Target = (7.6 - 2.4) = 5.2c

Link

 

[axelord]

Have we hit the bottom yet..? this 'DOG' has got me again...! If it will bounce.. to what price level?

 

[Chalea]

Have we hit the bottom yet..? this 'DOG' has got me again...! If it will bounce.. to what price level?

My commiserations...

Chart shows failure of support.

If you equate bottom to target, (5.2c), I don't believe the bottom has been hit.

The market has a knack of filling gaps. Note last October's gap @ 4.0c

Regarding the bounce, keep an eye on the moving average line

 

[Chalea]

Subsequent analysis leads me to believe that if that support were to fail then a measured move would see a target @ around 3.5c

Weekly chart's Slow Stochastic falling through it's center line confirms the longer term bearish signal provided last week.

The green lines enclose the SP in a Continuation Rectangle -

"Target: The estimated move is found by measuring the height of the rectangle and applying it to the breakout."

Price is now tracking the lower Bollinger Band -

"A trend that hugs one band signals that the trend is strong and likely to continue."

The approximate target, 3.5c, is a historic congestion area/area of support from a year ago and lies just beneath the daily chart's gap @ 4.0c.

 

[barney]

The approximate target, 3.5c, is a historic congestion area/area of support from a year ago and lies just beneath the daily chart's gap @ 4.0c.

Cha,

Anything is possible I guess .....

Unless the Company falls over, .... 3.5 cents would represent a substantial (I repeat, substantial) discount to what PEN's relative potential earnings value could be over the next few years ..... Even with its current "Spec" status, 3.5c would be about half its current conservative value.

However, PEN will soon be able to be valued based on economic fundamentals; unlike most Spec plays, which are valued on how well the "story" can be embelished ....(ps. I also generally prefer to use squiggly lines ...... but only to help me with entries and exits )

Granted, the U story is not the flavour of the month at present .......... opportunity perhaps??

Out of curiousity ....If you get the chance, will you be a buyer at 3.5 cents ........ I certainly will be!

Cheers.

 

[Chalea]

Cha,

Out of curiousity ....If you get the chance, will you be a buyer at 3.5 cents ........ I certainly will be!

Cheers.

barney,

Out of curiousity ....Did you see this post? (2nd-August-2011 11:31 PM)

Cheers.

Check the Monthly MACD...do you think that the MACD line is about to cross down through it's signal line providing a very long term sell signal?

May I also point out that long term support can be found on the lowest blue line @ 1c...

 

[barney]

barney,

Out of curiousity ....Did you see this post? (2nd-August-2011 11:31 PM)

Cheers.

I did, but that is 5 days ago ...... I'm no elephant!

May I also point out that long term support can be found on the lowest blue line @ 1c...

As mentioned previously, the only part of your "fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN" that is growing is the amount of it's full diluted shares...

3,200,000,000...:bad:

The amount of shares on issue is only part of the equation. Current SP of around 6 cents gives PEN a market cap of approx $120 million .....At 3.5 cps, their market cap would be approx $70 million.


The weak USD and poor world economics are the biggest short term issues for any sp appreciation, but if PEN succeeds in becoming future producer, a $70 million market cap would look pretty good value compared to its peers .....

ERA market cap of approx $700 million .....
PDN market cap of around $1.7 billion .............

I'm not disagreeing that the short term sentiment on U stocks is a bit average, but there are a lot of other Companies with more concerns than PEN.

A lot of water to go under the bridge with this story .... and the final outcome won't be known for a while yet ...... each person has to trade/invest as they see fit.

At 3.5 cents ........... As Oliver Twist said ....... Please Sir, can I have some more

Cheers.

 

[Chalea]

...but if PEN succeeds in becoming future producer.....
ERA ..... PDN .............

I'll say it again...

Production = SP stagnation/collapse...

Production of uranium?

Chernobyl was a walk in the park...Fukushima broke the camel's back, legs and will to live...

 

[barney]

I'll say it again...

Production = SP stagnation/collapse...

Although that often appears the case, I think it is a generalisation which is influenced by market "trend bias".

Companies that tank post production have generally risen exponentially in unison with a bullish general market sentiment ..........

Obviously the market will promote/over-extend the "in vogue" sectors when the mood is bullish ....

The real test is to find a Company that outperforms the general market trend ... Until last week, as an example, Iluka (ILU) filled that profile.

When you compare your charts of ERA and PDN, you would much prefer to be on PEN on a relative basis ............. in general however, you would prefer to be on none of them

Using your scenario, it should be noted that PEN is still PRE- production, and is therefore potentially subject to "sentiment swings" with its share price ............ If in fact the PEN SP manages to turn around in the current market climate; that would be a very bullish signal for the short/medium term ............... (ditto for the opposite scenario as well) ................ difficult market all round at present .... PEN is no different to most stocks, struggling for support.